Hunter Chase - 4.25 Fakenham

[Darran]

I will start with the reviews of the two races on Thursday. The Kelso race will be one of the more stranger races we will see this season. Shantou Flyer drifted like a barge all day and was freely available at odds against, whilst Mr Mercurial was well backed into around 15/8. On course the betting couldn't have been more different as Shantou Flyer was backed like it couldn't get beat and Mr Mercurial drifted like it only had 3 legs. Then we had the race itself. Shantou Flyer was plenty keen enough in front and after he got headed at 4 out he looked a beaten horse. The fact he touched 120 on Betfair tells you that. Meanwhile Sir Jack Yates and Mr Mercurial kicked on, but approaching 2 out the winner started closing back on the front two. Sir Jack Yates dropped away at that stage suggesting that he needed the race and it was her Mr Mercurial was sent into a clear lead, but that was the worst thing that could have happened. Clearly his new owner/trainer/jockey hadn't actually watched any of his previous races because if he had he would have known this is something he needed to avoid. I did say in the preview that the concern was the jockey not knowing the horse and as soon as they jumped the last his head went up in the air and he pretty much pulled himself up. With the jockey nowhere near strong enough either it meant Shantou Flyer was able to come through and score easily. I suspect he will be seen at Fontwell a week on Sunday in an attempt to qualify for Cheltenham. I don't really know what to make of the performance to be honest, but it was an improvement on Warwick and he does do well at Cheltenham so who knows. I suspect the 2nd is heading to The Festival as well to give his owner a spin round. He clearly still retains his ability but you would be fair from certain his owner would be capable of getting him to win on this showing.

Leicester was a much better story and meant we ended the day in profit as Asockastar won pretty cosily in the end. He didn't exactly lead like I thought he would, but they went such a slow gallop that it didn't really matter. I thought he was given a good ride because he kicked on at just the right time and Just Cause who is always held up just didn't have the speed to respond. He had been very keen in the early stages which wouldn't have helped, but for me he was firmly 2nd best on the day and the best Hunter Chase form going into the race ended up being the right way to go instead of the good recent pointing form. The winner is Cheltenham bound and I am sure he can run a nice enough race for connections, whilst the 2nd will probably be better in a race run at stronger gallop and he does have the ability to land one of these this season.

Onto today's race and I am gutted that Risk A Fine has turned up in a race like this although I am sure his connections think differently. Showed he had a fair level of ability when trained by Philip Hobbs and last ran for him in 2015. He then went missing until pulling up at Hackwood last May. He then returned for new connections at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and boy was I impressed with what I saw. He made all and never saw another rival beating a horse in Sego Success who was running well off marks in the 130's last season, by 7L. He was the horse I was most impressed by that day and he clocked the same time as Hazel Hill so the clock backs up what a good effort that was.

The only other serious rival is Zeroshadesofgrey who made a winning pointing debut in a Novice Riders race at Cottenham a couple of days after Risk A Fine won. He was driven out to beat Vivaldi Collonges by 3/4L. Local Show who was just behind in 3rd has won since although he was 2/7 and it was a weak race and the 2nd was stuffed on the same card and his jockey doesn't seem to be doing him any favours. It was a fair effort that was actually rated the same in the pointing form book as Risk A Fine's win, but that surprises me. He seemed to lose his way under rules last season and he also seems a better horse over hurdles. He might be the same age as Risk A Fine but he is certainly more exposed so we know where we stand with him. His jockey has won just 5 races in 93 rides in points and this is his first ride under rules and he goes up against one of the best around in James King.

I expect King to dictate matters on Risk A Fine and I would be very surprised if he doesn't win based on his Chaddesley win. The problem is he is 4/7 and there is little juice in that price and sadly I just can't recommend a bet at this stage. I would be surprised if he drifted to a backable price but should an angle in come up I will add it to the thread.

[Darran]

So Risk A Fine has drifted out to 8/11. I was waiting to see if it would go bigger, but it has been that price for a while and I make it a bet at that price.

Risk A Fine 4pts @ 8/11 with Bet 365 and pretty much everyone else