Hunter Chase - 3.55 Hereford

[Darran]

Another big field for Hereford's Hunter Chase and another fascinating race. This race produced plenty of winners last season and there is a chance it might well turn out to be a race to follow closely again. I have done a rundown of the runners in racecard order.

 

Flaming Charmer - Ex Colin Tizzard trained 11yo who was sold for £18k last month. Was a lucky winner at Chepstow in November off a mark of 121 and it was the 2nd year running he was winning that race. His wins have been over shorter, but he stays this trip and the conditions will be fine for him. Not sure he will be good enough to win this though.

 

Full Trottle - A bit of a favourite of mine because he is a really solid horse who nearly always gives his running. He looked the winner of this race last year until not quite seeing the distance out as well as Shotavodka. He had a run prior to that race last season although it was in early December so there was still a fair old break before this race. After this race last year he ran at Larkhill and didn't see the race out so was given a breathing op and it seems to have done the trick because he won on his next start at Ludlow and followed that up with a really good 2nd to Mr Mercurial at Cheltenham where he reversed form with Shotavodka. If he is fit and ready he has a fair chance of going one better.

 

Rouge Et Blanc - Was 6th in this race last year running pretty well before going to Lingfield and winning a fairly weak contest. He was then 2nd at Leicester over 2m before pulling up in the Aintree Foxhunter. Will imagine that he will run well again, but every chance he will come on for the run as he did last year.

 

Shotavodka - A good winner of this race last year and looked like he was going to win the Walrus at Haydock before he tired badly on the run in. He was stuffed in the Foxhunters', beaten by Galway Jack at Southwell and then finished weakly again behind Full Trottle at Cheltenham. He has had two runs this season and his finishing effort has not been great in either. Now he did win first up at Barbury, but he flagged in the closing stages and it was a race he ought to have won anyway. Earlier this month he was 3rd at Larkhill and the in running comment says he finished very weakly. I have watched the video of the race and he has caught up the first two nicely coming to the last, but in the end there wasn't a great deal there. His finishing effort worried me going into this race last year and he proved me wrong, but he could be that he beat a horse who had breathing issues and I can't help thinking at least one horse is going to be too strong in the finish.

 

Special Wells - Last win came two years ago off 117 and showed very little after that. Made his pointing debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month in a Ladies Open and didn't show a great deal when pulling up so is hard to fancy here.

 

Always On The Run - There was a fair bit to like about his run behind Hazel Hill last month at Chaddesley Corbett. He made the running and was still in contention until fairly late on which was no mean feat given what the winner did on Monday. This slight drop in trip will help as well. The slight concern has to be the going. He has mainly kept to good and was a non runner because of soft ground once, but then he was 2nd at Leicester on heavy ground on his next start and has won on soft in the past. I would imagine if connections felt the ground wasn't suitable they wouldn't run him and I actually think he holds a solid e/w chance at double figure odds on the back of his run last time.

 

Full Print - Looks likely to be outclassed in this line up

 

O Ceallaigh - Strange how this quite often happens in a Hunter Chase that you go back and a couple of horses have run against each other in a random race and he was 5th behind Vedettariat in a Novice Hurdle at Navan in 2015. Always used to make the running although they tried to hold him up more in his final few starts in Ireland. Made the running on his first start for new connections at Clifton, but faded and was well beaten in the end. Every chance he will come on for that effort, but I just wonder about how strong a stayer he is and this race is stronger than that one. Wouldn't surprise me if he hit the frame though with Biddick on top.

 

O Maonlai - Flattered by his two 2nds in Hunter Chases at Exeter and Newton Abbot last April although he did run pretty well at Buckfastleigh on his seasonal return in November. That was 66 days ago now though so the benefit of that run maybe lost. Will appreciate the shorter trip though and has an outside chance of hitting the frame.

 

Richmond - Been fairly consistent in Hunter Chases in the last couple of years, but he hasn't won one yet and highly unlikely to break his duck here as the trip looks on the short side for him nowadays.

 

Tinker Time - Didn't really show a great deal when he was last seen in 2017 and looks pretty hard to fancy.

 

Toowoomba - Impossible to give a chance to based on his previous rules form and his pointing exploits.

 

Vedettariat - Has been the main early gamble of the race so far despite not having seen the racecourse in 675 days. I saw him run in his first two points and I can't say I was overly impressed. He won at Chaddesley Corbett in December 2016, but he didn't jump great and I don't think he beat a great deal. Sybarite did what he always does to finish 2nd and the favourite Kyber Kim was given the usual terrible ride by his jockey and never got involved. Next up he went to Horseheath and again didn't jump well and finished 2nd to a pretty useful horse to be fair. His next win was at Charing and that was a pretty poor affair and he then won at Kingston Blount where Full Trottle also won on the card. They both won pretty easily and Vedettariat was a second quicker, but he also carried a stone less. He then was well beaten on his final start and had too miss the whole of last season. I greatly respect trainer and jockey and the yards horses are bang in form so he will be pretty fit I am sure, but he will have to jump a hell of a lot better than in his points and you can pick all sorts of holes in his form. I wouldn't be surprised if he did go and win, but at the same time I don't really fancy him.

 

Village Vic - Another one of Maxwell's buy's, but this time he only has a share of it and it is still running in the colours of his long term owner. Goes without saying if he runs to anywhere near his old form he wins this, but he showed nothing last season and he is surely nowhere near a 145 horse at the moment. What I will say is that the trainer's horses were not in good form last season and plenty have returned to do well this year so perhaps we will see an improved showing, but for me the percentage call has to be to oppose.

 

Summary - Village Vic obviously is the best horse in the race on previous form, but he has to be taken on for me. I'm sure Shotavodka will give it a good go to win this race for the 2nd year running, but his finishing effort is always a concern and I am not sure Vedettariat is good enough on his first run for so long. I like the chances of Full Trottle as he is so consistent and if fit and ready first time out then he has a great chance of winning this so he is one bet. The other bet is going to be Always On The Run as I thought it was a promising seasonal return behind Hazel Hill and this shorter trip should help him. He might get taken on for the lead with O Cellaigh, but I thought Always On The Run is capable of seeing him off. O Maonlai might be capable of running well at big odds.

 

Full Trottle 1pt @ 9/2 with Betfair, Betfred and Paddy Power

Always On The Run 0.75pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Betfair and BetVictor

[Darran]

A shame we lost this race today as was looking forward to see how it was going to pan out and as I mentioned it was a hot form race last year and I thought it might be again.

Next race isn't until Wincanton a week on Thursday.