MLB - Thursday 14/07

[crackout]

Started a thread and then had to leave so I'll do it on a day-by-day basis now. Kansas City Royals (30-57)(11-30) @ Detroit Tigers (42-44)(19-22) Zack Greinke (1-11)(ERA: 6.20) @ Jeremy Bonderman (11-5)(ERA: 3.99) Season Meetings: 04 April: Royals @ Tigers (2-11) 06 April: Royals @ Tigers (7-2) 07 April: Royals @ Tigers (3-7) 15 April: Tigers @ Royals (5-6) 16 April: Tigers @ Royals (7-1) 17 April: Tigers @ Royals (6-1) Zack Greinke: Road Record: (0-6) ERA: 6.54 over 43.2 IP Night Record: (1-9) ERA: 7.26 over 71.2 IP June/July Record: (0-5) ERA: 9.33 over 36.2 IP @ Comerica Park (season): (0-0) ERA: 0.00 over 2.1 IP (4 hits avg. .364) Jeremy Bonderman: Home Record: (5-2) ERA: 3.86 over 61.2 IP Night Record: (8-2) ERA: 3.40 over 79.1 IP June/July Record: (6-2) ERA: 4.64 over 54.1 IP Despite Greinkes terrible record, he doesn't give up too many walks and has a lifetime (2-1) record over the Tigers, with an ERA of only 2.11 over 21.2 innings. Rondell White and Craig Monroe like batting against him and that really should continue tonight. Bonderman has hit a little bit of a hot streak this month going (2-0) with an ERA of 2.12. He is only (4-3) lifetime against the Royals, but having pitched 48.2 innings, his ERA isn't bad at 3.33. Impossible to back Greinke to win, mainly down to the fact his averages do jump up a little when there is a man in scoring position. The 2.1 scoreless innings he posted at Comerica Park this season came in a day game, wher his record is far better than that of night games. 9/1 on Tigers by 7 runs or more is great value. He has only pitched 1 game this season that ended up with that result, another (against the Angels a couple of weeks back) was going the same way before being called a final at 5-0 in the 6th. Along with another couple of saves from team-mates of games heading down that road. Bets: Detroit Tigers -2.5 runs @ 27/20 (Bet365) (7/10) Detroit Tigers by 7 runs or more @ 9/1 (Bet365) (3/10) New York Yankees (46-40)(17-21) @ Boston Red Sox (49-38)(24-14) Mike Mussina (9-5)(ERA: 3.97) @ Bronson Arroyo (7-5)(ERA: 4.02) Season Meetings: 03 April: Red Sox @ Yankees (2-9) 05 April: Red Sox @ Yankees (3-4) 06 April: Red Sox @ Yankees (7-3) 11 April: Yankees @ Red Sox (1-8) 13 April: Yankees @ Red Sox (5-2) 14 April: Yankees @ Red Sox (5-8) 27 May: Red Sox @ Yankees (3-6) 28 May: Red Sox @ Yankees (17-1) 29 May: Red Sox @ Yankees (7-2) Mike Mussina: Road Record: (4-2) ERA: 5.09 over 53.0 IP Night Record: (7-4) ERA: 4.43 over 81.1 IP June/July Record: (7-3) ERA: 4.27 over 46.1 IP @ Fenway Park (season): (0-1) ERA: 7.20 over 5.0 IP (7 hits avg. .333) Bronson Arroyo: Home Record: (1-3) ERA: 4.41 over 51.0 IP Night Record: (5-3) ERA: 3.82 over 78.2 IP June/July Record: (3-3) ERA: 4.25 over 48.2 IP Not too many walks or strikeouts for either pitcher here Messina has been spanked by the Red Sox this season, pitched 14 innings giving up 23 hits and 14 runs. Arroyo's record against the Yankees is little better, that said he hasn't pitched many innings, 9 hits and 5 runs in 5.2 innings. Stats are all pretty even for both teams, and the Red Sox havent had the bollocking they have deserved in the press thanks to the Yankees. Yankees seem to have picked up in form (9-3 in last 12) and are coming off a 3-1 series win over the Indians. Compared to a Sox team who are (5-8) of their last 13 and just lost a series 3-1 to the Orioles! Without a Devil Ray series anoywhere in sight, the Yankees cuold be set to go on a little run. Matsui loves batting against Arroyo (3 for 3 this season and .533 lifetime), and with the men who will be hitting in front of him, this has pushed me into taking the Yankees tonight. Went for the -2.5 runs line as only 1 of the 9 games this season has been within that for either teams win, and the fact the Yankees will still feel they have a point to prove from the 17-1 thrashing they got. Bets: New York Yankees -2.5 runs @ 19/10 (Bet365) (7/10)

[effigy]

Re: MLB - Thursday 14/07 Nice info provided there Crackout, I was going to go with the Detroit line anyway, you may have convinced me to put more money on it now! My bet tonight: Tampa @ Toronto: Over 8.5 runs I feel this is fairly low considering who's pitching tonight. I believe the line is artifically low due to the fact that Lilly's last 2 start have yielded just 1 earned run. Lilly has yet to string 3 quality starts together this season and even though this is the perfect team to start against to break this run I don't think he is consistant enough, irrelevent who he is pitching against. Fossum got rocked in his last game at Comiskey and it will be interesting to see how he reacts as it was his worst start of the year. Another point that sways me is that the Jays have hit very well in July so far going at 7.5 runs a game this month so far, with the bats working against a fairly average pitcher I see this game going into double figures. Toronto/Tampa + 8.5 @ 5/6 (9/10) + 9.5 is 6/5.