Odds-on favourites system

[slapdash]

WARNING: THIS IS ALMOST UNTESTED. The idea is to pick the odds-on favourite in races where my "EW system using Betfair place prices" http://punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=12648 doesn't come anywhere close to picking anything with which to oppose it. Sometimes that system doesn't pick the second, third, ... favourite but throws up a very long priced horse. These very rarely win, so I won't worry about selections like that for this purpose. Also, I still have to fine-tune what "anywhere close" means, so I guess this counts as a freestyle system. In the cases I've looked at (only about half a dozen so far) SP seems to a good deal shorter than available early prices for these horses, so I'll be using best early prices to start with. This could include exchange prices, in which case I'll stick to "sport-punter.com" rules of only using a price if there's at least 100 pounds offered at that price or better when I post, and I'll assume commission of 5% (Betfair) and 3% (Betdaq). I'll start with a 100 point bank and use level stakes of 10 points. I could abandon this quite soon! First selection: 13/7/05 5.00 Catterick: Dante's Diamond (1.50 Sporting Odds)

[Datapunter]

Re: Odds-on favourites system good luck with this slapdash, I did some research a while ago and its high on my list to have another look at. Basically the weight of money on Betfair, and possibly other factors but thats the main one, drives the price down. This simple fact makes for a profitable system long term because if the price is pushed down far enough there is value in laying. Regardless of any other factor :eek . That combined with a reasonable selection process has the making of a killer system. Now you are looking at backing :lol But the principle is the same, it comes down to finding a price with value. So keep this going for a bit but make sure you record the actual price on Betfair you could back or lay at. That's were the profit will have to come from.