Betting strategy

[Milanisimus]

In the break between the end of last season and this, I put some time and effort into "analysis" of the proposed strategies for betting. After reading some of the books which have good feedback (Joseph Buchdahl, other books on sharp betting systems), I realized that they heavily focus on the numbers and the probabilities distribution, making the bet looking mostly mathematical. 

I don't have problems with the numbers (Master in Energy Engineering and Management), but after reading those proposed systems, I just can't convince myself that way into finding the "value" in the bets and the proper odds for a certain match. It is often emphasized that they rely on the law of large numbers, and that the only way to profitable betting is at having some edge instead of trying to guess winners. I like more the approach into analyzing an event separately, but more on the performance part of teams/players, than just looking at lines/odds movement/markets.

I would appreciate if other members can share their opinions and experiences, on how to define a betting strategy, and what to consider as most important factors. Other feedback and ideas are also welcome

[Sir Puntalot]

Yeah @Joe does like his numbers and stats.  

My personal opinion is you can't just go with stats alone. They can be a great guide, just like our own unique ELO Football Ratings but you have to insert your own knowledge and even gut feeling. Many people will argue against gut feeling, but I never ignore mine unless I'm craving a 300g Cadburys Caramel Bar, then I try to ignore it.