Value Bets (Football)

[QPRMinty]

Hello all.

I've been signed up to the forum since 2014, but this is my first post.........I'm shy, alright??!!

I want to publicise selections for a value finding strategy I've been working on for the last 6 months.

Along with some other little strategies, I've been monitoring results for this since mid-February, but didn't do anything with it in March, April or the first half of May. So the following results data spans the period of 4th February to today, 30th July (180 days), but I was only checking for selections for 93 of those days.

This strategy started out horrendously..........after a quick 8 point gain in the first 2 weeks, it quickly plummeted to 8 points below zero. That negative 8 point position was recorded on May 28th. Since then the recovery has been nothing short of miraculous......a positive climb of 42 points from the negative position in May to a 34 points positive balance as of yesterday.

I would like to be able to blow my own trumpet and say that I've cracked it.....found the Holy Grail, etc., etc.....but we all know that this game is the cruellest of all games. All I can do is press on to the 200 bet mark, by which time I hope to have a clearer knowledge of the true personality of this strategy. In short, I need to see it either maintain consistency on its current trajectory, or recover from more than one bad run.

My selections so far have been based on Betfair odds, and are net of 5% commission. Obviously, better odds can be found at some bookies and without the commision.

You can view my results so far, here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18ur_RWboNRj4rFqkgbslwMwcrDrFQHP2E1mvXb-PBwI/edit?usp=sharing

 

Anyway, here are the vital statistics so far.......

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Sport: Football

Strategy Type: Value

Bet Type: Backing

Stake Size Per Bet: 1 Point - £5
(Equates to 2% of starting bank of £250. To be recalculated after every £100 of profit).

Number of Bets: 94

Average Odds: 3.90 (26% Implied Probability)

Average Winning Odds: 3.79

Strike Rate: 37%

ROI: 36% (after 5% commission) / 41% (without commission)

Points P/L: 33.83 (after 5% Commission) / 38.72 (Bookies)

Average Points Profit Per Bet: 0.35

Expected Losing Sequence: 10 Bets

Actual Longest Losing Sequence: 9 Bets

Longest Winning Sequence: 4 Bets

Current Edge: 34%

Chi-Test Results: 98% Skill, 2% Luck (Currently)

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I will post selections as early before the fixtures as I can, possibly twice in a 24 hour period, as some selections at the moment are for South American fixtures.

I will also provide regular updates of vital statistics as I go.

Start bank: 100 Points (£250 - 1 Point = £2.50)

Thank you for reading, and please do join me on my quest to see if I truly am finding value or if I'm just on a lucky run.......gulp.....

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PS.....I would be interested to see fellow members' views on the results and stats so far, so I've added a poll.
(why not...first forum post...may as well take full advantage of every little gizmo!)

 

Edited August 22, 2017 by QPRMinty
Change of Google Docs link

[QPRMinty]

Just to clarify.........when I'm recording paper trades I don't use a 'bank', so I start from zero points. That way I can look in my profit/loss column and just see the total gain or loss, with no bank included.

So when I say this strategy went 8 points below zero, I don't mean it went bust, just down 8 points from my starting balance of 0 points.