Staking Plans

[BillyHills]

We have been trying a few different ideas out elsewhere on the forum but thought it might be useful to have a thread where we can just discuss different staking methods we use and any useful staking plans that may benefit those systemites among us.

Many will say just back single level stakes and thats fair enough, others will vary the single stake depending on the strength of their selections. For example they may choose to back 1pt, 3pt or 5pts depending on confidence of a particular runner.

Some punters are more adventurous and will try a progressive stake method, whilst I wouldn't recommend any 'Martingale' type staking plans on horses i'm sure some have found this type of plan successful in other areas of gambling.

I'll try and copy some well know methods in this thread from time to time and feel free to add any methods or comments that you may have.

The following plans are outlined in this thread:

1: Level Staking Plan
2: Percentage Staking Plan
3: 1326 Staking Plan
4: Fibonacci Plan
5: D'alembert Plan
6: Pro Staking Plan
7: Fixed Staking Plan
8: Kelly Staking Plan
9: Retirement Plan
10: The Retrieval Betting Plan
11: Martingale Plan
12: Stop At A Winner Plan
 

[BillyHills]

Corky

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ive been using my skybet loyalty bet £5 bet on the daily treble each monday and have had returns 3 out of last 4 mondays, as the free bet has to be over evens, it has been worth it, only downside is i miss the early prices as the free bet  arrives early on monday morning, its a tenner this week, and more free bets in future weeks, check t@c

im also paper trailing stop at a winner, excluding treble and nap, as they appear further down

1st race 1pt

2nd race 2pt

3rd race 4pt

keep doubling till winner

only downside is missing  a couple of double digit winners

and you may miss best prices as your betting one race at a time, and only the first race can you get the early price

although  all races are bog,, and multi accounts may be needed for money bets

will not be suitable for over 5 or 6 races in one afternoon as the timing may interfere with bets

 

 

[BillyHills]

Snoopdog

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Actually, I have had a few ideas along similar lines, but with a "stop loss".

This idea looks promising, but needs shortish prices (say < 2/1) to prevent long losing runs.

Something like:

Bet 1: to win £x. If win, reset and start again.

If bet 1 fail, then bet 2 to recover previous loss and win net £x. If win, reset and start again.

If bet 2 fail, then bet 3 to only recover losses from bets 1 and 2.

If bet 3 fail, then quit, accept the loss, and start again.

  Just thinking, not yet tried.

 

 

[BillyHills]

I used to use a percentage staking plan and i found it was quite successful as long as you could find a system where you had frequent winners.

The secret was to set the plan at the right level for the strike rate expected. So for example your opening bank figure would need to sustain any losing run to avoid being cleaned out.

If you were backing short priced favourites then it could be a lot less than a more aggressive selection method with less winners at a bigger price.

Lets say i'm backing favourites, I would have an opening stake of 5pts and set the bank at £30, this gives me a losing run of 6 before losing my opening £30.

So 5pts on the first selection and then once we have a winner we split the bank into 6 again.

If the prices are short it will need patience to build up, but thats your choice, if you wanted to back 5/1 shots then you would maybe want a few more than 6 as a safety net.

I'll try this with the selections in the trebles and naps in a different thread for a month.

[BillyHills]

Xtc

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OK I am going to try this with an increase at loss system. The increase will only take effect after the 3rd bet and will increase by 1 Pt. It will stop after a profit is made. Just to throw the spanner in the works, if a profit is not made after the 5th bet, every winner we have will decrease the bet by an amount determined by the price of the winner (cannot decrease below 5 Pts.)  

1. Odds on winner, (after bet 5) next bet will be same as previous.

2. Winner from Evens to 11\8 next bet will decrease by 1

3. Winner from 6\4 to 9\4 next bet will decrease by 2

4. Anything above 9\4 next bet will decrease by 3

Don't forget you cannot drop back below 5.

So to sum up first 5 bets will be : 3 Pts, 2Pts 1 Pt, 4 Pts, 5 Pts  

If no profit is made after 5 bets the above 4 rules come into play. 

Hope this is understandable.

 

 

[BillyHills]

Trotter

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I've been trying a staking plan for the last few months but I've only been betting on football since about last October with 95% single win bets with the odd double and 'fancy' bet here and there .............so basically I was expecting a pretty good strike rate, up around 50%

Since around mid March I tried the following ...........

 

Started with 100 and had 20 times 5 bets.

At the end of that sequence I had around 141 so then did 20 times 7 

At the end of that I had around 145 so did 20 times 7 again

At the end of that I had 165 so did 20 times 8

That's when the losing run set in and before long I was back down to 105

So I had a reset and started again at 20 times 5 .............that's the sequence I'm currently in

 

I guess it's a common staking plan but I found it stopped me doing stupid bets like 30 quid on Burnley to beat Lincoln at 1/6 .............. ............to be fair that was the shocker which made me think I needed a disciplined staking plan !

I think 20 bets at a level stake is a good number to get you over any reasonable losing runs and by increasing or decreasing your stake at the end of every sequence of 20 bets it stretches out your betting bank

 

 

[BillyHills]

Taken from The Staking Machine;

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Level Staking Plan

This is a common form of staking and is sometimes known as flat betting. The staking plan states that you bet the same stake at all times.

The Level Staking Plan is the bench mark for all your staking plans. The school of thought is that if your selection system is not making a profit when using level stakes then you should not be using that selection system.

The size of the stake can be determined however you wish. One method is to use what is known as points. For example, if your start bank was £200 you would split the bank into 200 points. So your stake would be 1,2 or more points. In this case £1 would represent 1 point.

The level staking plan is a very safe, low risk staking plan and can be used as a reference against other staking systems to analyse their performance. Any selection system that does not produce a profit at level stakes should be looked at very carefully before continuing with it. Any selection system not in profit using level stakes does not have an edge. In TSM we have the following variable settings. 

 

 

[BillyHills]

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Percentage Staking Plan

This staking plan is similar to level stakes but with a vital difference. The stake is always linked to the cumulative total. Sometimes known as the 'plateau philosophy', the percentage staking plan says you should recalculate your stake whenever your betting bank increases or decreases.

There is a school of thought that you shouldn't downgrade your stake if you fall back through a level, on the assumption that if you stick with the higher stake it will speed up your return to the top. This is more commonly known as ratchet staking.

 

I personally only re-calculate after a winner, others after each bet.

[BillyHills]

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1326 Staking Plan

The 1326 Staking Plan is a sequence based staking plan. The sequence used is in the name. It is similar to other staking plans such as the parlay and fibonacci staking plan. If you win the bet, you move up one in the sequence. If you lose, you go back to the beginning. If you reach the end of the sequence, you stand to make a very good profit.   

In simple terms -

 

• The first bet you make is 1 unit

• The second bet is 3 units

• The third bet is 2 units

• The fourth bet is 6 units.

 

Let’s look at a working example by setting each unit at £10 and each win at even odds:

 

• The first bet is 1 unit which equals £10. Let's say this bet loses. The sequence starts again. The next bet is still the first bet and is still 1 unit.

• The first bet is still 1 unit which still equals £10. This time the bet wins. This means the next bet is 3 units.

• The second bet of the current series is 3 units which is £30. Let's say this bet wins as well. The next bet is 2 units.

• The third bet of the current series is £20. Let’s say this bet loses. The series re-starts and the next bet reverts back to the start of the series. 1 unit. £10.

 

If you were to win 4 bets in a row you would make a substantial profit. The example shown uses level odds but in horse racing the odds are usually greater meaning that profits are often created and banked on each bet.

 

 

[BillyHills]

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Fibonacci Staking Plan

This staking plan is based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers first devised by an Italian mathematician in the 12th century. The Fibonacci sequence took its name from its inventor.

Some people profess that the Fibonacci sequence can form the basis of a very efficient staking plan, especially when it comes to horse racing. The Fibonacci Sequence works by adding the two previous numbers in the Fibonacci Sequence to get the next stake, ie 1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34. With the Fibonacci Sequence your bets go up one step with each loss. With each win you reduce your bets by 2 steps down. Note that every win with the Fibonacci sequence pays for the two losses before it.

Worked example for the Fibonacci sequence:

• bet £10 until you lose, then bet £20

• if you win at £20, then return to step 1. If you lose, then bet £30

• if you win at £30, then return to step 1. If you lose, then bet £50

• if you win at £50, then return to step 2. If you lose, then bet £80

• if you win at £80, then return to step 3. If you lose, then bet £130

• if you win at £130, then return to step 4. If you lose, then bet £210

• if you win at £210, then return to step 5. If you lose, then bet £340

• if you win at £340, then return to step 6. If you lose, return to step 1

 

 

[BillyHills]

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D'alembert Staking Plan

The D'alembert staking plan, which is sometimes known as the pyramid system, was devised by the French mathematician Jean Le Rond D'alembert (born 1717) and subsequently took his name D'alembert for obvious reasons.

The D'alembert theory on the ‘Law of Equilibrium’, supposes a balance of successes and failures over a long series of specific events, for example horse racing.

The D'alembert plan requires you to increase your stake by one unit after a loss and decrease your stake by one unit after a win. The intention of the D'alembert staking plan is to end up at the beginning of the sequence but each time making at least one unit profit.

In an attempt to simplify the D'alembert process the following example once again assumes level stakes and level odds:

• On the first bet you play £10 win, bet £10 - if you lose, bet £20

• if you win at £20, next bet £10 - if you lose, bet £30

• if you win at £30, next bet £20 – if you lose, bet £40

• if you win at £40, next bet £30 - if you lose, bet £50

• if you win at £50, next bet £40 - if you lose, bet £60

• if you win at £60, next bet £50 - if you lose, bet £70 and so on

A typical D'alembert sequence could be expressed as so:

• bet 1 unit and you lose -1 unit

• bet 2 units and you lose -2 units

• bet 3 units and you win +3 units

• bet 2 units and you win +2 units

• sum total of units + 2 units

 

 

[BillyHills]

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Pro Staking Plan

The pro staking plan relies on the instructions being followed to the letter. Which is a good reason to use The Staking Machine !

The aim of the plan is to achieve a target profit (T) per race. This could be for instance 5 points per race. Once you have set the value allotted to each point it cannot be changed during the betting sequence. The system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, no matter how long your losing run is. Each cash value (return) for each point will be low - the reason for this is that the amount multiplies each time a losing bet is encountered.

 

For example if we had ten losers in a row, and each point was worth £1, then the stake for the eleventh bet would be to recover £55. If you had given each point a value of 0.25 pence, then you would be looking to recover £10.25. It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant.

 

An example of the system in operation is as follows:

 

T = Points target for race

T+L = Target + Loss (if losing) OR Target - Gain (if winning)

S = Stake

R = Result

W = Points won that race

L = Points lost that race

AWL = Running total of accumulated WINS and LOSSES

 

When target profit reached, start sequence again.

As you can see, in race 8 the target profit of 40 points was reached and exceeded. At this point all the profit is withdrawn and the sequence started again with 5 points as the target. To calculate the stake, simply divide the figure in the T+L column by 3 and round to the nearest whole number. If you then go on to win at 3-1 or over you will clear ALL outstanding losses and give the expected profit. In itself, this is a very powerful staking plan and if you can work out your optimum variables, you can very often turn a negative betting sequence positive.

 

 

[BillyHills]

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Fixed Staking Plan

In some quarters it is widely accepted that fixed profit betting is better value than level stakes betting. Again this is a matter of personal opinion. With level stakes betting, you are keeping your accounting on the ‘spend’ side of your book ‘fixed’ by sticking to one bet size to suit all. The upside here is that you can control your expenditure and can easily analyse your bank. The down side on the other hand, is that you are limiting the ‘income’ side of your book in direct proportion to the odds available on the bet ie, a 2/1 (3.00) shot will return far less than say a 7/2 (4.50) shot using the same stake amount.

With fixed profit betting, you basically work in the opposite way, in that the ‘spend’ side of your book becomes ‘flexible’ whilst the ‘income’ side of your book will be ‘fixed’. In other words, your bet size will change in direct proportion to the odds on offer, with the aim of achieving a pre-determined profit. A consequence of this type of betting is that the longer the odds become, the smaller the stake becomes conversely, the shorter the odds become the larger the stake becomes. Using this system therefore, it is advisable not to bet odds on.

 

With fixed profit betting, you are aiming to achieve a pre-determined profit target with each bet. It means that long odds require small stakes however; very short odds can require very large stakes. It is therefore advised especially in this system not to bet when odds are less than 6/4 (2.50).

 

For example,

• say you set your profit target per race at £40

• odds given for the horse are 4/1 (5.00)

• your stake would be £40 divided by 4 = £10

• therefore, £10 x 5 = £50

• Minus your stake = £40.

 

However if you had odds say 1.7

• 40 divided by 0.7 = £57

• your stake would have to be £57 to return £40 (not a good idea for odds on betting)

 

 

[BillyHills]

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Kelly Staking Plan

You could now say that matters are going to get just a bit more complex. The Kelly staking plan is based on using the ‘Kelly Constant’. Kelly Criteria was developed in 1956 by John L. Kelly and the Kelly Criteria is designed to maximize the growth of your bank-roll over the long term, by determining the optimal stake on a bet. The Kelly Criteria requires that your percentage-estimations (probabilities) are better than the bookmaker’s estimations. If you are confident that you can determine value to be on your side as opposed to that of the bookie, the following Kelly Criteria formula will tell you the optimal amount of your bank to bet.

 There are many ways of writing this formula. For arguments sake the original format is showed here. One thing you MUST know is your edge, (probability of winning).

 

f* = bp - q / b

where f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager;

b is the current bet odds(fractional);

p is the probability of winning;

q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p.

For example if your start bank = £10,000 and your current decimal odds are 5. You have done all your research and your edge is 25% or 0.25.

Therefore f* = (((5-1)*0.25) - (1-0.25)) / (5-1) f* = 0.0625

Multiply this fraction by the start bank to find your stake;

Stake = 0.0625 * £10,000 = £625

The Kelly Criteria is popular with many professional bettors. Many others prefer not to use the Kelly Criteria as they deem it too risky, in that it requires a large number of percentage estimations. Even if you are good enough to find a large number of overrated ‘value’ bets, using the Kelly Criteria can still cost you money due to the resultant stake being too high. In an attempt to offset this problem, many supporters of the Kelly Criteria principle use a variation to the system called ‘Proportional Kelly’ which divides the percentage by [say] 2, and which helps minimize the risk.

If you ‘overestimate’ your ability to predict an outcome i.e. you predict a 60% chance, when the correct prediction should be 52%, you will pay for it by losing money. If on the other hand, you ‘underestimate’ your ability to predict the outcome i.e. you predict a 55% chance, when the real chance is 60%, you will win money with the Kelly Criteria. This is due to the fact that Kelly Criteria formula optimises your stakes providing you are able to predict with a high degree of accuracy.

With the Kelly Criteria you make money by having only a small advantage on every game you pick. If you instead have a small disadvantage for every game you pick as a result of overestimating your predictions, you will lose money with the Kelly Criteria as compared to flat stake betting.

 

 

[BillyHills]

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Retirement Plan

This method of staking was invented by Barry Hughes of Grandstand Publishing and it is also designed to recover your losses. Although very mild recovery it is important to say that it is a recovery strategy.

Let’s get to the actual staking strategy. The first step is to make sure that you have had at least 20 winners flat betting or on paper trial before putting this staking into effect.

1. Find the average odds of your winners.

2. Find the ‘Divisor’ by doubling the average odds of your winners. This is the decimal odds – 1, multiplied by 2. e.g. If the average odds of you winners was 3.00 then your ‘Divisor’ would be 4.00.

3. Your first bet using this staking plan will always be 1%.

The first 3 rules are all fairly simple to understand. We also need to calculate a target. The target is calculated by multiplying your divisor by your first bet. If we imagine we have a 100 unit bank and so our first bet is 1 unit, we have a divisor of 4 so our starting target is 4*1 = 4 units.

Let’s have a quick recap. We have found the average odds of our winner and multiplied it by two to get a Divisor of 4 and our first target is 4 units. All good so far.

Although it looks quite complicated working the Retirement Staking Plan is in fact much simpler than first glance. Apart from our first bet, the amount we bet is always the Target divided by the Divisor. If your bet loses you add the loss to your Target, if it wins then you reduce it from your Target (but your Target can never go below its first setting of 1% of your bank). If you have the same number of losers in a row as your Divisor number then you increase your Divisor by 1 after each bet, when you win you reduce it back to the same level it was when the Target was at a similar point (again it never goes lower than its original setting).

That is pretty much it. There is just one more rule. When your bank has increased by 2% you increase your original target by 2%. As you can see it is actually fairly simple. I have written out a sample below so that you can get an idea of what you are doing.

As you can see every time a bet is lost we add the P/L to the Target. When a bet is won we subtract the P/L from the Target. After four losing bets in a row the next bet has a Divisor of 5 (original + 1) and then after every losing bet the Divisor has another +1 added to it. After our second win the Target is reduced to 8.68 and so looking back the closest Target we have had to that in the past is 7.81, which had a Divisor of 4 and so the Divisor is reduced back to 4.

 

 

[BillyHills]

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The Retrieval Betting Plan

This is probably the most complicated plan, and is sometimes known as 'Target Stakes' or 'Chasing Your Losses'. This plan endevours to win you, a certain amount of money, this amount, or 'target' is a percentage of your current bank. For instance, say we start with a Bank of £100, then the first target will be 5% of this = £5. In order to win £5, we need to calculate the stake, based upon the odds we are going to get. Although we don't know the odds, we can use an esimation, (that being the Betting Forecast). Therefore:

Selection Target  Odds  Stake

Horse #1 £5.00  2/1   £2.50

We can see that if we wish to win £5.00, we need to stake £2.50 on a 2/1 selection. If this horse does NOT win, we need to add the current stake onto the target for the next bet, (£5.00 + £2.50 = £7.50) and then do the same again:

Selection  Target  Odds  Stake

Horse #1   £5.00   2/1   £2.50

Horse #2   £7.50   2/1   £3.75

And so the cycle continues until a bet wins, you reach your maximum bet size, or you run out of money! In the event of a win, you should find that you have recovered all your losses, as well as winning the initial target of £5. At this point, you re-calculate your Target based upon 5% of the CURRENT betting bank. A problem occurs however, if the actual odds of the winner, (Starting Price) are very different from the estimate, then you will not win your target, and you may not even recover your losses. In this scenario you can either, take the hit, and hope that the next win will work more in your favour, or you could simply set the new target to be the deficit.

 

 

[BillyHills]

 

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The Martingale Plan

This plan was actually designed when playing 'Red' or 'Black' on the Roulette table, to enable a gambler to 'double up' after each loss until, the next win arrives. The plan is thought to be successful on the Roulette table, because you have a 50/50 chance of winning on each spin, therefore if you lose, the probability says that the next spin will produce the desired result. Actual results, and many broken banks later prove that this isn't necessarily the case, and you can get 10 Blacks in a row!

The plan outlined here, is exactly the same as the Roulette plan, but applied to horse-racing - therefore the risks are higher as you don't have a 50/50 chance of winning in each race, however, the rewards are greater as you tend to win more than Even money. Therefore, this plan can ONLY be applied if you are confident that you will get wins at fairly regular intervals, otherwise your bank will be broken fast. Thankfully, our tips have never given our members a losing run of over 5 bets, therefore we can use this plan.

The plan, in laymans terms is simple. Start with a small stake, (1% of your Starting Bank) and place your bet. If the bet loses, double your stake on your next horse. Continue until either you reach your maximum bet size, or your horse wins, (or you run out of money!). If your horse wins, go back to staking 1% of your Starting Bank.

Advantages

• A very simple plan to understand.
• Your initial stakes are small, which is always a feel-good factor.
• Your stakes are small after a win, which again is a feel-good factor because you know you aren't going to win every bet you place.
• Your highest stakes are always on winners.
• If you have had a series of losers, because the stake is so high on the next horse - you should win back all your losses, plus some extra.

Disadvantages

• If you have a winning streak, (consecutive winners) you will have tiny stakes on the winners - and therefore not capitalize on the profits.
• If you have a string of losses, your stakes will rise dramatically, and could break your bank FAST.
• If you have winners fairly regularly, (1 out of every 3 bets) you will not win as much as LSP.

 

•  

[BillyHills]

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Stop At Win Betting

This plan does exactly as it says, when a horse wins, you stop betting. On any given day, you may have a number of selections, you bet on the first horse, if that loses you back the second, and so on, until you hit a winner. When this happens, you stop betting for the day.

As for the stakes, you need to take 2% of the Betting Bank, this becomes your 'starter'. If we take a £100 Betting Bank, your 'starter' would be £2. This is also your first bet. If this loses, you mulitply this 'starter' by the amount on the following scale:

1124816

So, you can see the multiplier is again 1, so your stake would be £2. If this loses, the multiplier becomes 2, so your next stake becomes £4. Again, if this loses, the mutliplier would be 4, so the stake would be £8, and so on, until you reach the final multipler of 16. At this point, your stake is £32, and if this wins or loses, this is the last bet of the day.

Advantages

If you have 1 winner a day, you will only back the winner and then stop.

If the only winner of the day happens to be the first race, you will have maximised your bet.

If the only winner of the day happens to be the sixth, you will have your maximum stake on this horse.

Probability says that if you have just backed a winner, your next horse is more likely to be a loser.

Disadvantages

If you have a run of winners on a day, you will only have backed the first.

If you have 7 races on a day, and the seventh wins, you will have staked a LOT of money, and not placed a bet on the only winner of the day.

If you only have one bet a day, you will be betting a tiny amount on this horse.

If you only have 1,2 or 3 bets a day, then you would be staking comparitively small sums, and less likely to be maximising your winnings.

 

 

[Snert]

On 6/2/2017 at 8:50 AM, BillyHills said:

 

This sounds similar to my method - I use the following :-

Very approximately   -   if a horse is up to 6/1 I will bet 5 points, If the price is 7/1 - 10/1 I will bet 3 points, and above 10/1 I will bet 2 points , which translates into winnings as 15-30 points, 21-30 points, and 20 + points.

 

To complicate the issue, if the price is less than around 6-1 I usually back to win but beyond this I usually - but not always back e/w so at 10/1 I will probably have a 2.5 point e/w bet so betting the same amount as a shorter priced win only bet while if 20-1 I will normally go 2 points e/w so in effect I usually back a similar amount for each bet.

This is not cast in stone though - if I strongly fancy a horse I will go 5 points regardless of price  - which I know from experience is a not a good idea but I can't help it - sometimes it pays off but often it doesn't - I would be better off sticking to a system but sometimes emotion gets in the way.

If your betting involves mostly short or similar priced bets then this is obviously not for you but for me, where I back a range of different prices I find it suitable.
 

[Birchy]

Birchy Staking Plan

A right 2 and 8

I've been doing some number crunching on the PL Tips spreadsheet and have come up with a simple staking plan that increases the ROI from 8.57% to 11.59%. It's based on a series of bets rather than each individual bet. So the basic plan is:

1. Base stake = £2.00

2. Calculate the P&L for the previous days bets (usually 30+ bets)

3. If P&L <= 0, stake = £8.00

4. If P&L > 0, stake = £2.00

The higher stake can be any value greater than £2, whatever is comfortable. The higher it is, the greater the ROI. I should also mention that I back all of the tips to win, including the EW.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Birchy

[corky]

15 minutes ago, Birchy said:

Birchy Staking Plan

A right 2 and 8

I've been doing some number crunching on the PL Tips spreadsheet and have come up with a simple staking plan that increases the ROI from 8.57% to 11.59%. It's based on a series of bets rather than each individual bet. So the basic plan is:

1. Base stake = £2.00

2. Calculate the P&L for the previous days bets (usually 30+ bets)

3. If P&L <= 0, stake = £8.00

4. If P&L > 0, stake = £2.00

The higher stake can be any value greater than £2, whatever is comfortable. The higher it is, the greater the ROI. I should also mention that I back all of the tips to win, including the EW.

sounds great, what is the timeframe you used? can you post daily? will you update?

[Birchy]

1 hour ago, corky said:

sounds great, what is the timeframe you used? can you post daily? will you update?

That's for all the bets in the PL tips spreadsheet at the top of this page: https://www.punterslounge.com/tips/free-horse-racing-tips

All 16,098 PL tips from August 2016 to November 2017 are included so it's by no means a small sample. I've only been backing the tips for a few weeks to £2 level stakes but have been testing various staking plans to increase profitability. Will be interesting to see how it fairs once the December results are added to the spreadsheet as December is looking like the first losing month since August 2016.

FYI, the totals for the 16,098 bets using "2 and 8" are:

ROI: 11.59%

STAKED: £71,598

P&L: £8,301.28

BETS: 16,098

Edited December 31, 2017 by Birchy

[Xtc12]

Hi Birchy, Happy New Year to you.

Am I reading your staking plan right.

Your Base stake is £2 per race.

If that day shows a loss the following day you bet £8 per race. Stay at £8 until you show a profit and then return to your £2 base stake.

 

[Birchy]

1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

Hi Birchy, Happy New Year to you.

Am I reading your staking plan right.

Your Base stake is £2 per race.

If that day shows a loss the following day you bet £8 per race. Stay at £8 until you show a profit and then return to your £2 base stake.

 

Happy New Year!

Yes, you're right. The problem with most staking plans that rely on each single bet result is that it's difficult to implement on busy race days, particularly when multiple races start close together or at the same time. Using the P&L for each day, we are effectively treating each series of bets as a single bet, so can use any of the above staking plans. Also, it's not uncommon to have 3 or 4 losing days in a row. The longest losing run so far is 8 days for the PL tips.

I also tested increasing the stake each time we had a losing day by both fixed amounts and percentages (eg stake = stake * 1.5). Although they do increase the ROI, they aren't as effective as using the 2-8 plan. This would suggest that most of the losing runs are only 1 or 2 days.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Birchy

[Xtc12]

Thanks for the prompt reply.

One other thing to clear up. 

32 minutes ago, Birchy said:

The longest losing run so far is 8 days for the PL tips.

So as per your original post your staking plan for the quote would have been :

£2 per race on day 1 and then £8 per race on the next seven days. The day you made a profit (8th or 9th day) does the profit have to be a daily profit or a profit over the losing sequence of 8 days. Hope you get my drift.

Say you lost £10 on day 1.

Next 7 days you lost £50 giving a total loss of £360 over 8 days. The 9th day you make a profit of £75. Do you go back to £2 per race or stay at £8 until you recoup £360.

 

[Birchy]

42 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

Thanks for the prompt reply.

One other thing to clear up. 

So as per your original post your staking plan for the quote would have been :

£2 per race on day 1 and then £8 per race on the next seven days. The day you made a profit (8th or 9th day) does the profit have to be a daily profit or a profit over the losing sequence of 8 days. Hope you get my drift.

Say you lost £10 on day 1.

Next 7 days you lost £50 giving a total loss of £360 over 8 days. The 9th day you make a profit of £75. Do you go back to £2 per race or stay at £8 until you recoup £360.

 

It's not a loss recovery staking plan. Stakes are based on the previous day's P&L only. So for the 8 losing days, the stake remains at £8 per bet until we have a winning day, when we reset to £2. 8 losing days have only happened once in 16 months. This staking plan plays on the fact that we only get 1 or 2 losing days most of the time.

It might benefit from using more than one day's results. eg, check the P&L for 3 days or even 7 days before deciding the stake but I haven't tested this.

Edited January 1, 2018 by Birchy

[Escaping Captivity]

In my opinion the best strategy is a combination of level stakes and the percentage staking plan.

Instead of altering your stake after every bet as the percentage staking plan dictates, change it after longer intervals such as every day, week or month.

[MCLARKE]

If my cumulative profit has reached a new high at the end of a week then I will increase my base stake by £1.

My original base stake in October 16 was £10, it is now £54.

[Xtc12]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

If my cumulative profit has reached a new high at the end of a week then I will increase my base stake by £1.

My original base stake in October 16 was £10, it is now £54.

@MCLARKE is your statement based on the Punters Lounge tips.

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

@MCLARKE is your statement based on the Punters Lounge tips.

No, it is based on all my bets which are based on a number of different strategies. I did use PL tips at one stage but they don't seem to generate the profits they used to.