Has This Ever been Tried on here?

[moggis]

I was just wondering whether the posters who are the most knowledgeable about soccer have ever got together to price up future games,say a week to 10 days ahead by using the wisdom of crowds affect?

That is each of say 20 posters forms their odds and then they are averaged out -perhaps the outliers are discarded -and the result compared with the best prices?

If not why not? Would it be that the very best posters wouldn't want to give away their prices or would it be that noone thinks it could be effective ?

If it's the latter then what does that say if anything about the ease of beating 90 minute markets?

Edited April 25, 2017 by moggis

[Matthew]

I think the problem might be that most people incorporate information from a result including the teams in question from inside the 10 days.

So if I'm pricing up Middlesbrough for tomorrow's big NE Derby, I'll incorporate info from their defeat against Bournemouth. My line for Middlesbrough v Sunderland will be ready from Saturday night, but before that point I am unable to make a line without rebuilding everything. And I'd argue you can explain a fair chunk of next game performance from previous game showing. And that's ignoring the environmental effects of all the other fixtures going on too, which affect, at its simplest, league position of the teams.