Monthly Comp - Sunday April 16th

[BillyHills]

430 Southwell

Gnaad NAP 7/4 BetVic/ Betfair
Was quite impressive here two starts back and on the back of that was very well backed to follow up at Lingfield. He got messed about that day and couldn't get on the speed which seemed to work so well previously. Back here in a small field I fancy he can reproduce his course form and will be hard to peg back.

[robertob]

5.05 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Keith Dalgleish's Dirty Randy is an interesting handicap debutante. He didn't show a lot in three maidens last season which all came in quick succession, hinting connections were keen to get the runs into him to qualify for a hopefully lenient opening mark.

The Handicapper - that is fair to say - has not taken any chances and allotted Dirty Randy a rating of 60, which, for what he has done so far, is harsh. Shouldn't the handicapper allocate marks for what horses have actually achieved without taking into account whether improvement may come in the future over different trips and surfaces? 

Well, anyway, let's focus on the race. Given Dirty Randy was never going to be a miler but more with a future over middle distance trips he might still have a fairly good chance to outrun his opening mark.

A drastic step up in trip to 12f should see him certainly in better light than in those maiden races. He hails from a successful family that generally tends to do better with age and the further they go, so it's fair to assume Dirty Randy could develop into a decent horse. 

He was never to enjoy the fast All-Weather surface at Newcastle, however his sire has shown his offspring can outrun the odds at the slower and more demanding Southwell fibresand. 

So things fall right here for Dirty Randy in that sense, with trip and track likely to suit. He likely to be sharp enough on his seasonal reappearance, with cheek-pieces fitted for the first time. A fine 5lb claimer makes life a bit easier. 

The Dalglish yard goes pretty well at the moment and it looks significant that Dirty Randy has two more entries for next week, which may suggest they hope for a strong run here to turn him out quickly again.

Selection:
Dirty Randy @ 5/1 PP