Racing Chat - Saturday (Inc Scoop6)

[BillyHills]

Saturday March 25th

 

Selections:

Leg 1: Killala Quay 8/1 Bet365

First of four races from Newbury and very tricky handicap chase to get the ball rolling. Likely favourite Dawson City is worth opposing has his two wins came in heavy ground and is higher in the weights now. I like Killala Quay who won at Doncaster on good ground and that was a definite step in the right direction.

Leg 2: Gala Ball 8/1 BetVictor

Another tough handicap over fences. Gala Ball was hammered by Warriors Tale last time out but has a chance of revenge on these terms. Gala Ball has ran well here at Newbury and in fact was a winner over hurdles. Shadows Lengthen could go well at a big price and is on the shortlist.

Leg 3: Isaacstown Lad 11/2 Skybet

We have a couple of decent races at Kelso this week and the first one is a Class 2 handicap hurdle. Top weight Seeyouatmidnight reverts to hurdles and is a class act. This may be a warm up for the Scottish National or something so i'm going for Isaacstown Lad instead who ran really well last time out.

Leg 4: Grand Turina 10/1 Skybet

The big betting race of the day and 17 runners line up for the EBF Mares Final. Every runner has won this season and you cant count many out of this. Obviously you want something on the upgrade that may be ahead of the handicapper and past winners have been rated 126 or less. Grand Turina fits the bill, won at Warwick the other day and is at the right end of the handicap.

Leg 5: Yala Enki 9/2 Skybet

7 runner chase here and I like the look of Yala Enki who travels up from the Venetia Williams yard. Decent sort who attempt to lead these throughout and looks on a fair mark at the moment. He will be hard to peg back and the improving Baywing may provide the biggest threat.

Leg 6: Templier 16/1 Bet365

A juvenile handicap to finish off with and I like the look of Gary Moore's Templier who could be well in here. He has ran behind some decent sorts including Divin Bere and Master Blueyes and looks a decent value bet. Top weight Night Of Sin is a solid alternative for the Nick Williams team who took the Fred Winter, another 4yo handicap.

[beaker1]

1.50 Newbury – Be Wiser Insurance Handicap Chase.

 

The current favourite for the race is Shotavodka for trainer David Pipe. The eleven-year-old arrives here off the back of a good third in a competitive course and distance veterans’ handicap chase. He won the same race the year before and put up a gallant effort to retain his crown. Some of the gelding’s best form throughout his career has been at Newbury and his course record makes him a strong contender in this race.

 

Killala Quay brings strong form to the race having largely competed in higher grades of races than he will be involved in on Saturday. However, he had been struggling this season (pulled up on his first three starts of the campaign) before bouncing back to form at Doncaster last month. The ten-year-old landed a good-quality veteran’s class 2 handicap chase, his debut in this type of race, appreciating the three miles trip as he stayed on strongly in the final stages to get the better of former Grand National runner-up Saint Are by a head. The way he finished the race suggested that the step up in trip here for trainer Charlie Longsdon could suit and he still appears to be well-treated based on previous form, such as winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase in February last year.

 

Another horse who comes here off the back of a win is the Polly Grundy-trained Dawson City. The eight-year-old was getting off the mark over fences here, and his time had been coming having finished second five times. However, he did have some fortune this time as he was a length down in second when the leader fell three fences from home. He capitalized well though, finishing clear by thirty lengths. The distance of his win merits respect, but that was on heavy ground and only two of his rivals managed to complete that day.

 

COOLKING has been in flying form this year, landing a hat-trick since the start of the year. His first win of the three came in January when he was trained by Chris Gordon before switching to the Gary Moore stable. Although the three successes have been in a lower class – two wins in class 4s and a class 3 victory, they have all been in impressive style. The first two were both at Lingfield, on the second occasion winning the class 3 by a wide-margin twenty three lengths. He set a strong pace that day and soon had the rest of the field in trouble. The ten-year-old followed that up with a decisive fourteen lengths success at Plumpton, where the same tactics were employed. Although the recent run of form has come on heavy ground, he has previously won over hurdles on good ground and can continue on his upward curve on Saturday.

 

Other horses who could be involved here include Vieux Lille and Call Me Vic. Firstly, Vieux Lille is the youngest horse in the field for the partnership of Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. The seven-year-old has been consistent this season without winning. However, this includes a third at Exeter to the promising Harry Fry-trained American and also a second place to the tough Yala Enki from the Venetia Williams’ yard. Call Me Vic was a gutsy last time out winner of a class 3 at Aintree and this step back up in trip looks likely to suit. The ten-year-old has to be respected for the Tom George and Adrian Heskin combination.

Advice

 

COOLKING – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)

 

 

 
2.25 Newbury – Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase.

 

The second race at Newbury on Saturday is a 2m4f handicap chase and two horses who look closely matched are Warriors Tale and Gala Ball, with the pair having faced each other over course and distance earlier this month. The former came out on top on that occasion in the hands of Sean Bowen, seeing off his more fancied rival to win with eleven lengths to spare at the line. The runner-up gets a significant pull in the weights following that run and is also fitted with blinkers here in a bid to sharpen up his jumping. Both horses showed a tendency to make the odd jumping error when they met here but if they can hold their jumping together, it is hard to see them being too far away.

 

Robert Walford’s Walk In The Mill has looked an improved performer this term, winning his first two starts this season before going to Cheltenham last time. The seven-year-old might just have found his new mark on the high side on that occasion, although he was still not out of things when making an error at the third last. On the whole, this race looks less competitive than the one he contested at Cheltenham in January but he still needs to prove that his new mark isn’t beyond him.

One of the lesser exposed members of the field is Aqua Dude who was narrowly denied a first victory over the larger obstacles at Haydock last month. Evan Williams’ seven-year-old was just touched off by the gallant Captain Redbeard, although it is worth bearing in mind that they were well clear of the third, who has won since. The handicapper has raised this gelding 6lb for that runner-up effort which is likely to make life more difficult but he was highly thought of as a novice hurdler, so you would imagine connections think he is better than a mark of 136.

 

Emma Lavelle saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Casino Markets who won three times last summer, earning him a rise of 22lb in the handicap. However, his latest effort saw him chase home Fox Norton in third in October and whilst he was no match for the winner on the day, that still looks pretty good form. He looks to have been saved for Spring ground since then and as long as Newbury doesn’t get any more rain, he would have to be high on any shortlist.

 

However, I think the one of most interest is O MAONLAI who seems to save his best form for here at Newbury. He won here off a mark of 134 in November and was running well here last time before making a serious jumping error at the cross fence. But for that mistake, I think he would have been right in the mix and with the Tom George team amongst the winners once again, I think he is worth an each-way bet at the prices.

Advice

 

O MAONLAI – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)

 

 

  
2.40 Kelso – Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle.

 

 

Kelso has put up a couple of big pots on Saturday and it looks as though they have been rewarded as this race has attracted a strong field. The weights are headed by SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT, who has his first start since pulling up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Sandy Thomson’s nine-year-old got the better of Bristol De Mai over fences in October and was well-fancied to give Cue Card a race on his latest outing. Things didn’t work out for him on the day and Brian Hughes reported that he was never travelling, so I would be happy to put a line through that run. It is interesting that he starts back over hurdles and having finished third off this mark in the Scottish Grand National last year, you would have to think he is far from handicapped out of it. He should have no trouble handling conditions and although it will be tough to concede weight all around here, I still think he is the one to beat.

The veteran Reve De Sivola makes the long trip up to Kelso from Nick Williams’ base in Devon but it has been a while since the twelve-year-old showed some real spark in his races. He won at Haydock last February at Haydock but since then he has been a shadow of his former self, albeit in strong company. The handicapper has dropped him 5lb since running down the field at Exeter last time but even with that drop, I still think there are better options in the race.

 

Venetia Williams saddles a progressive runner in the shape of Eminent Poet who has won three of his last four starts over hurdles. The latest of those victories came at Lingfield earlier this month, where he seemed to relish the testing conditions underfoot, something which should stand him in good stead here. He won over 3m1f at Plumpton back in January so the trip shouldn’t be an issue and the only concern is that he continues to creep up the weights. Without Charlie Deutsch’s claim he is effectively 8lb higher here but he continues to progress and should looks the main danger to our selection.

Of the remainder, Lucinda Russell’s Big River chased home a smart performer in the shape of Dadsintrouble last time and gets in here with next to no weight on his back. He has gone up 4lb for that effort but his jockey Blair Campbell takes a valuable 7lb off his back. He won on heavy ground back in December so should have no trouble handling conditions and is one of the less exposed runners in the line-up.

 

The final one to mention is Nicky Richards’ Isaacstown Lad who was a narrow second at Ayr when last seen. The ten-year-old was third in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark and showed signs of a return to form on his most recent outing. He too should handle conditions and can’t be dismissed with any certainty.

 

 

Advice

 

SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT – 1pt win @ 4/1 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)

 

 

 

 

3.00 Newbury – EBF & TBA Mares’ ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle Finale (Grade 2).

 

 

This looks ridiculously competitive, with 8 horses currently priced up between 8/1 and 10/1 at the head of the market – however, the race has some clear trends over the past ten years that help us to narrow our focus. No mare has won the race carrying over 11st 3lb in the last ten renewals, so while the likes of Tara View, Copper Kay, Hitherjacques Lady and Wizards Sliabh look very talented mares with a big chance, they don’t fit the profile that the usual winners of the race seem to throw up and are passed over this time.

 

One who looks very talented is Venetia Williams’ Grand Turina, who was second behind the Supreme Novices Hurdle third, River Wylde, now rated 147, at Ludlow over two miles in January. She’s bolted up since, beating a 120-rated horse by seven lengths, so if that form is true, a mark of 120 looks hugely exploitable. However, she’s always been a very tricky ride with a short fuse, and even though Charlie Deutch clearly gets on well with her, the step up in trip and the quicker ground could expose some of her temperamental issues and jumping quirks.

 

Snow Leopardess heads the market and has always been highly-touted, but her actual performances on the track have left a little to be desired so far – she does seem to lack a change of pace and I feel that her price is more governed by her reputation rather than facts. That being said, a mark of 123 looks fair and she should run well enough for a stable that won this in 2015 with Kalane.

 

Noel Fehily rode Charlie Longsdon’s winner that day, and here he rides Lamanver Odyssey for Harry Fry. Only out of the first three once in her six runs under rules, she’s a consistent, tough mare who should go well off a mark of 119 on this good to soft ground that she’ll surely appreciate. Her second place in heavy ground last time out at Hereford can be marked up given that it was in dire conditions and the return of Fehily to the plate is always a huge positive.

 

Cajun Fiddle has a similar profile to Harry Fry’s runner in that she’s consistent on the whole and has plenty of experience. She was nine lengths behind the useful Verdana Blue (fourth in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham) on her last run and a mark of 124 looks very fair on that form. However, it looks as if she’s second string for Alan King here as Wayne Hutchinson is aboard Tara View, and the market backs that up as well.

Another who looks very feasibly handicapped is RUBY YEATS and it’s through Verdana Blue again that we draw the form line. Three lengths was the difference between the two on her last run at Hereford and that was with a mistake 2 out and under an inexperienced jockey. A mark of 120 looks very generous and I’m certain that Harry Whittington’s mare will run a good race here. The trainer spoke of how she ‘works all over Charlemar’ at home and that horse was rated 135 after running in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle in January. Harry Bannister’s 3lb claim will help as will the step up in trip to two and a half miles, so she’s a confident selection to go well.

Advice

 

RUBY YEATS – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (bet365, SkyBet) (4 places)

 

 

 
3.15 Kelso – Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase.

 

Seldom Inn heads the market for what looks to be a competitive handicap chase. The Sandy Thomson-trained nine-year-old has been in fine form over fences this season. He has two wins from four runs this campaign, culminating in a twenty-one lengths victory in a Listed race at Kelso last time out. He had plenty to find on ratings in the race but ran out a convincing winner, having far too much for his rivals as he kept on strongly on the run-in. That win came on heavy ground and the step up in distance here promises to suit with the way that he finished off the race.

 

Another who comes here on the back of a wide-margin success is Baywing, who landed the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby. On only his second start over fences, the eight-year-old showed much improved form from his chase debut as he came right away after the second last to win by twenty-two lengths. He obviously enjoyed the testing conditions and this lightly-race gelding should have more to offer for trainer Nicky Richards.

 

Silver Tassle also come here’s looking for back-to-back victories having bounced back to form at Ayr last time. Micky Hammond’s nine-year-old saw the three mile trip out very strongly on the day and he would have to be considered despite a 6lb rise in the weights. The slight concern would be that he hadn’t shown much form prior to that so he might not be the most solid of horses to follow up.

 

However, one who looks to have plenty going in his favour is YALA ENKI who last got his head in front at Haydock in December. He seems to have struggled off his raised mark on his next two starts including at Doncaster last time, where he seemed to boil over in the preliminaries. Having said that, he should handle the heavy conditions and his trainer is adept at landing these staying chases. The handicapper has cut him a little bit of slack but crucially this looks less competitive than the races he has been contesting and I fancy him to get his head back in front.

Advice

 

YALA ENKI – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365)

 

 

 
3.35 Newbury – OCSL Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.

 

 

Juvenile hurdles can be tricky puzzles to solve and the one who sets the standard on official figures at least is Night Of Sin, who has won his last two starts. Nick Williams’ four-year-old really seems to have turned a corner since the New Year and he showed a good attitude to win under a penalty at Warwick last time. He has a tendency to be very keen in his races which could make life difficult for him as he steps up in grade and in a race as competitive as this, I think he is worth taking on.

 

Also towards the head of the weights is Tom Symonds’ DON BERSY who has won his last three starts for connections, including the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at Haydock last month. He starts off life in handicaps on a mark of 132, which I think is fair enough considering his profile. Connections opted to skip the Cheltenham Festival with a view to his development and he looks to have a leading chance in this contest.  I suspect he is still somewhat underrated because of the stable from which he hails and I think he is a little overpriced at around the 7/2 mark.

 

There are also a host of unexposed horses in the field, not least Dinsdale who got off the mark at the fourth attempt over hurdles at Newbury last month. It looked as though he would be passed on that occasion but he showed a fine attitude to regain the lead in the closing stages and win with a bit to spare at the line. His trainer believes there is more to come from him and having run so well here last time, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up once again tomorrow.

 

Martin Keighley’s Buckle Street must also come into the mix on the back of his Southwell success last time, having gotten the better of his elder rivals in good fashion. He showed some quirks by hanging left in the closing stages and is fitted with cheekpieces here in a bid to iron out those tendencies. At this stage he promises to be a better hurdler than a flat horse and with just four runs under his belt over obstacles, there could still be more to come.

One final one to mention is Neil Mulholland’s Hygrove Percy who was campaigned through the summer and already has three wins to his name over hurdles. He shaped well for a long way at Sandown last time but was perhaps just caught out by his lack of a recent run on the day. He should strip fitter for this and he could run better than his odds of around 11/1 suggest.

Advice

 

DON BERSY – 1pt win @ 100/30 (bet365)

 

 

 
4.45 Newbury – Goffs UK Spring Sales Bumper.

 

 

 

One of the biggest sales bumpers of the season, this race is always very well-attended and with 22 runners this year, 2017’s renewal is no exception. It’s also a race with a pretty clear pattern in terms of the profile of the winner – nine of the last ten winners were four years old and carried no more than 11st 1lb to victory, the only one that didn’t fit this profile was Diamond Harry, who won the race for the second time in a row in 2008, so not a usual winner anyway.

 

That allows us to eliminate all of the first seven on the racecard, who are five-year-olds and therefore carry more than 11st 1lb, including The Last Day, who dead heated with Aye Aye Charlie on his last start and could have more to come, Senatus, who has the services of Graham Lee, favourite Chez Castel Mail, who bolted up last time out, and Pride Of Pemberley, who has run well on both of his starts in hot-looking bumpers.

 

Instead, we’re focusing on the younger, less exposed sorts and an obvious place to start is with Nicky Henderson’s Ligny, who is currently the second favourite on the back of reputation and his powerful stable only. However, Henderson is the only trainer to win this race with an unraced horse in the past 10 years (Gaitway, 2014) so he knows what’s required to do so. This horse is a half-brother to a horse that won this very same race back in 2009, Lidar, trained by Alan King (more on him later) and a couple of half-decent flat horses, so you would think he’s got plenty of ability, but to win this on his racecourse debut could be a tough ask.

 

Bullionaire falls into the same ‘unraced’ camp as Ligny, but Harry Fry’s four-year-old doesn’t have the same pointers in his family as Henderson’s horse. By Gold Well, sire of Holywell, Susalito Sunrise, Johns Spirit etc., and out of a point-winning mare (cut no ice under rules in bumpers, hurdles or chases), he’s a proper National Hunt-bred animal, and they’re the type that tend to do well here. Fry always does well in this type of event, so he has to be respected with Noel Fehily on board.

 

Gary Moore’s Larry was victorious on his racecourse debut at Fontwell, and is another nicely bred National Hunt sort, being by Midnight Legend. He’s a brother to bumper winner Chain Gang and is related to various useful types including Mr Thriller and Gaspara, so you shouldn’t be surprised by the fact he’s already shown himself to be useful. He showed a good temperament on debut to defeat two more experienced rivals and he’ll have progressed from there, but you’d have to think that obstacles will be the making of him and he may just get outpaced by some of the speedier sorts in this, especially under a winners’ penalty.

 

The one that majorly catches my eye is the Alan King-trained HAREFIELD, who was a decent second on his debut at Exeter behind Tom George’s Air Navigator in a race where the well-fancied Irish raider and subsequent Champion Bumper runner Quick Grabim, hung his chance away from the back of the second last. Alan King has won this race three times in the last eight years, with The Unit, Montbazon and Lidar, so clearly thinks that this horse is the right type to win this. HAREFIELD was held up right at the back of that Exter contest in the early stages of the race and, in a race where those who were towards the rear didn’t do particularly well, he powered home strongly to get within a length and a half of the winner in what could work out to be a decent contest. He’ll have learned plenty from that run and this son of Doyen, who cost 25,000 last May, could go really well at a decent price.

 

Advice

 

 

HAREFIELD – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)