Racing Chat - Sunday

[BillyHills]

[robertob]

2.30 Leopardstown: Arkle Novice Chase (G1)

I totally get why Identity Thief is the "hype horse" here and no doubt his record makes for impressive reading. I also wouldn't read too much into his last run when pulled up. Nonetheless it is a slight concern, so is the good ground today. I feel he is best suited so rain softened underfoot conditions but then he might easily stuff my mouth if he bolts up today.

Anyway, the Arkle is quite an open and intriguing race and the slight concerns over the favourite do bring the other three rivals right into the game. 

De Bromehead's nine year old Some Plan is two from three over fences and has only 2lb to find on the ratings and the one race he didn't win he fell and we never know how close he would have gone. Still early days in his chasing career but he already looks a better chaser than hurdler and no doubt there's more improvement likely to come.

The grey Blue Et Rouge is the youngest challenger in the race and looks to have plenty of ability. A winner of a solid Beginners Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, he left a lasting impression on me. Truth told his jumping wasn't the best that day, though he was badly hampered two out by a faller and it was impressive how quickly he made up lost ground to jump the final fence on par eventually. Once clearing the last he produced a fine turn of foot to win with plenty in hand. 

Willie Mullins also saddles nine year old Royal Cavalier. A solid sort in his own right and a good jumper, but he has a bit to find with his three rivals. 

At given prices I do fancy Blue Et Rouge to be thereabouts in the finish. The drop in trip doesn't concern me personally, given he showed plenty of pace the other day. He acts on track anf ground quite clearly and should have learned plenty from his first outing over fences. He looks an incredibly exciting prospect. 

Blue Et Rouge @ 7/2 PP

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3.30 Irish Champion Hurdle (G1)

A disappointing renewal given Faugheen's absence, Now this looks pretty much a two horse race, though the younger Petit Mouchoir is firmly fancied. Rightly so, after an impressive Ryanair Hurdle success where he beat today's most dangerous rival Nicholas Canyon quite easily. But do we get carried away and letrecency bias influence our judgement a bit too much here? Let's not forget Petit Mouchoir win record is not impressive at all and given he was a 3m point to point winner it might well be the case that he can get into trouble on this good ground against a pacier sort. 

Connections couldn't explain Nicholas Canyon's rather lacklustre showing at Christmas. Seven lengths beaten in second by Petit Mouchoir seems not a true reflection of his ability. Now, if he is anywhere close to his best - and his seasonal comeback run suggested he is as good as ever - then he should make this a real race for the long odds-on favourite. Obviously he has to improve a good bit to get closer this time, and fact is he's better with cut in the ground and probably on a right handed track.... 

Yet, let's not forget he's last years Cheltenham Champion Hurdle third, a seven times Grade 1 winner, including two of those here at Leopardstown. On ratings he's only two pounds to find with Petit Mouchoir and it's not unreasonable to believe NC can be closer to this rival today. 

Hard to make a case for Footpad and Ivanovich Gorbatov, though the later one is the reigning Triumph Hurdle winner nonetheless so can't be fully discounted. 

Nicholas Canyon @ 11/4 Ladbrokes