My Ante-post Diary

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Last year I decided to do a Ante-post diary which resulted in a 19 points profit overall thanks to victories for Thistlecrack (3/1), Don Cossack (7/1), On The Fringe (5/2) and Ballyandy (12/1) as well as healthy each-way returns on the likes of My Tent Or Yours (20/1), Buveur D’Air (12/1), Yanworth (9/1) and Bloody Mary (14/1).

For those of you who may be new to my Ante-post Diary, I will run through the general format from week to week. In each update I plan to go through the four Championship races (Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle & Cheltenham Gold Cup) initially before discussing the novice divisions over hurdles and fences. Obviously as we get closer to the Festival the handicaps will also be discussed in depth as well as some of the other shoulder races and bets will be recommended where necessary

 

PART 1



Champion Hurdle



Annie Power heads most lists for the Champion Hurdle but she missed her first possible engagement of the season in the Morgiana Hurdle having reported to have worked badly in the week leading up to Punchestown. There is no long term concern about the mare and with the Mullins bandwagon yet to get fully rolling it shouldn’t be too long before she is out.

Her stablemate Faugheen, with whom she also shares favouritism for the Day one showpiece missed the same race with a bruised foot. He has not been seen on the racecourse since running away with Irish Champion Hurdle last January and this slight niggle has delayed his comeback further.

Despite those notable absences, Mullins was able to record a sixth successive victory in the race courtesy of Nichols Canyon who made just about all to win by twelve lengths under Ruby Walsh. The visibility was poor at Punchestown so it is hard to know just how good he was but he was well on top as he appeared out of the gloom over the final hurdle. He is best priced 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle, in which he finished third last year, although it was indicated afterwards that he would be going up in trip which suggests the World Hurdle is more likely to be on his agenda than the Champion.

In fact the current Champion Hurdle market has a number of horses on the list who are unlikely to take their chances with the likes of Yorkhill, Altior, Buveur D’Air and Min all seemingly likely to head over the larger obstacles this winter. That means that at present we have two horses at around 5/2 and the rest are 16/1 bar, which might suggest that there is an each-way bet to be had but there isn’t anything that jumps out at present.

Ch’Tibello got the better of Melodic Rendezvous and My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Price Rush Hurdle a couple of weeks ago but for all Dan Skelton’s five-year-old improving, I find it hard to see him ending up as Champion Hurdle class by the end of the season. The disappointment of the race was My Tent Or Yours who travelled well for much of the way but just couldn’t pick up in the heavy ground and Noel Fehily wasn’t overly hard on him. He should be better on a sounder surface in something like the Christmas Hurdle but he will be ten come March and despite his fine effort last season, you would have to think his best days are behind him.

The Fighting Fifth last weekend also failed to throw up any Champion Hurdle clues as Irving got the better of Apple’s Jade in a tight finish. We know enough about Irving to know he isn’t a real top drawer performer and the runner-up will be stepping up in trip for her next assignment. It is worth mentioning that Petit Mouchoir was going as well as anything when coming down three out and despite that fall he could be the one to take out of the race.

The disappointment of the race was Sceau Royal who came here on the back of smooth successes at Cheltenham and Wincanton but he seemed to struggle on this slower surface. After starting the season well last year his form tailed off and it might be that he is one who runs best fresh. Regardless of the reason for his below-par display, this run confirmed if it weren’t already apparent that he is some way short of Champion Hurdle class.



Champion Chase



Willie Mullins has the market leader for another of the championship races here as Douvan who won all six of his starts as a novice last season, is currently best-priced 8/11 to be the Champion Chaser come March. If you had to ask me now what would win the Champion Chase, clearly this chap would be top of the list and despite the six-year-old holding entries in the John Durkan over 2m4f and the King George over 3m, all the indications are that the Queen Mother Champion Chase will be his primary target come the Spring. He was close to faultless last season and personally I think he would have an excellent chance in the Champion Hurdle were something to happen to either of his stablemates. At this stage it looks his to lose but there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before March so there is no appeal in 8/11.

In terms of opposition, his closest market rival at this stage is Fox Norton who is two from two this term, having added the Shloer Chase to his handicap success at Cheltenham last month. He was purchased by Ann & Alan Potts after his reappearance win and they chose to move the horse from the yard of Neil Mulholland to Colin Tizzard. The six-year-old was a ready winner of that Grade 2 contest but personally I think 7/1 is plenty short enough at this stage. I don’t think there is any doubt that he has improved over the summer but when you consider he was beaten 11 lengths by Douvan in the Arkle and 32 lengths by Douvan at Aintree, he looks to have plenty more improving to do yet. He also sustained a cut in his latest victory which means he misses this weekend’s Tingle Creek but all being well he should be back for a Spring campaign.

It could be that Willie Mullins has two of the biggest “dangers” to Douvan in the shape of Un De Sceaux and Champagne Fever. The former had his limitations exposed in the Champion Chase back in March as he just couldn’t quicken with Sprinter Sacre on a sounder surface, although he did run on in the closing stages. He won over 2m5f at Auteuil in May and he looks likely to be stepped up in trip this term. Champagne Fever didn’t make it to the track last term but despite being keen and fresh on his reappearance, he managed to get his head in front, landing a Listed Chase at Thurles just last week. That was over 2m6f but afterwards his trainer raised the possibility of him going back in trip and although he suggested that 2m in a Grade 1 might be asking a lot, he didn’t rule it out.

On this side of the Irish Sea, it could be that Gary Moore holds all of the cards and he will have been delighted to see Sire De Grugy get back to winning ways at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Jamie Moore was frank in his assessment of the ten-year-old’s chances in Grade 1 company afterwards suggesting that he didn’t have much chance of beating Douvan and it is hard to see him making an impact on the Champion Chase.

Moore’s best chance could be Ar Mad who improved out of all proportion last term winning his last four starts over fences including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December. He suffered a condylar fracture in the lead up to the Festival last term which saw him miss the rest of the campaign and we should learn more about his wellbeing this weekend. He has entries in both the Tingle Creek and the Peterborough Chase and we should see where we stand with him. The one question we have yet to answer is whether he is as good left-handed but I suspect we might not know that until March.

The last of Moore’s potential Champion Chasers is Traffic Fluide although in a recent blog, Moore suggested that the six-year-old would not be seen until February at the earliest.



World Hurdle



With last year’s runaway World Hurdle winner Thistlecrack now bound for a career over fences, it seems the only chance of him running in this race is if something went awry on his next two outings. If this is the case then it gives the race an open look, especially when you consider that Faugheen currently heads most markets. Whilst it is true that the eight-year-old won a novice hurdle over three miles in his younger days, in the last two years over two miles, he has proved himself arguably as one of the best Champion hurdlers ever. Of course I realise that connections also have Annie Power but I think throwing Faugheen in here would be the wrong option, for all I think he would probably win.

As always there are last season’s novices who will be bidding to make an impact in open company and Unowhatimeanharry put down a sizeable marker when winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last Friday. The eight-year-old won with plenty in hand on the day under Barry Geraghty and given his form at Cheltenham as a novice it is easy to see why this race is likely to be high on his list of targets. Back in second was Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Ballyoptic who didn’t jump as well as he can, perhaps an impact of his fall at Wetherby last month. At this stage he looks to have plenty to find if he is to become a World Hurdle contender.

Alan King’s Yanworth is high on many lists and his performance in the Coral Hurdle this month suggested that he was more of a World Hurdle horse than a Champion Hurdle horse. He showed a good attitude to wear down the game Lil Rockerfeller and win with three-quarters of a length to spare. On the face of it, the performance was slightly underwhelming but I think he might just have needed the race more than connections thought and he still had enough to get the job done. I suspect that stepping up to three miles will probably bring about further improvement but I still think he is short enough at around 8/1.

If we have an early contender for a novice chaser going back over hurdles it could be One Track Mind who made a mistake at the first on his chasing debut last week and it didn’t get much better after that. The Grade 1 winning hurdler eventually completed but ran well below expectations and whilst connections are keen to stick down the chasing route for the time being, he could be one worth watching if switched back to the smaller obstacles come the Spring.

I will actually be putting a bet up in the World Hurdle this week but you will have to wait a little longer to find out who it is.



Gold Cup



There is only one place to start with the Gold Cup as the major seismic disturbance in the Gold Cup market was the loss of Vautour earlier this month. A brilliant horse both over hurdles and fences, he turned in some devastating displays at Cheltenham, most notably in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the JLT Novices’ Chase. Much was made of his Cheltenham target last Spring and a poor piece of work meant he went down the Ryanair route rather than Gold Cup. Personally, I found it hard to see him lasting the 3m2f of a Gold Cup trip but I suppose we will never know.

Looking ahead to March, it is something of a strange market at present as we find ourselves with a novice who has only raced over fences three times heading the field. Of course the novice that I am referring to is Thistlecrack who carried all before him over hurdles last year and has been sent over fences this year with the target of becoming the second novice since Captain Christy in 1974 to win the race as a novice. Now, I should start by saying that you would be hard-pushed to find a bigger supporter of this horse than me as I have had him in my Jumpers to Follow list since he won at Wincanton in early 2015, however I think his price is quite absurd at present. His jumping was much better at Newbury on Saturday particularly at the open ditches, which had caused his supporters some alarm at Cheltenham on his second start but he did most of that in second or third gear. The test will come when he has to travel in fourth or fifth gear and then we will see just how his jumping holds up, but in reality we probably aren’t going to see that scenario until the Festival (unless connections decide to take in the King George over Christmas). With all of those questions still to answer 7/2 is too short and I think it means that there are others in the market who could be too big.

Clearly his stablemate Cue Card looks to have plenty going in his favour and in the opinions of many, he would have won in March had he stood up. Personally I don’t subscribe to that view but he is a high-class chaser as we saw when bouncing back from a below-par return to land the Betfair Chase a couple of weeks ago. The way he cruised clear of some smart rivals including the returning Coneygree suggested he retains all of his ability at the age of ten and that he will once again be a force come March. He will be eleven by the time Cheltenham comes around though and surely there are more appealing options.

As for the returning Coneygree, I thought he ran well for a long way, jumping boldly under Richard Johnson but he just got understandably tired in the closing stages. His trainer admitted afterwards that he probably had him a bit short and the heavy ground will have only exaggerated the tiredness. With that run under his belt, how he fares in either the King George or the Lexus over Christmas is likely to show us how much ability he retains.

Last weekend also threw up a third potential Gold Cup runner for the Tizzard team as Native River showed some fine qualities to win the Hennessy at Newbury. He gallops and stays very well which suggests that he would be suited by the gruelling test of a Gold Cup but I’m not sure he has the requisite class to actually win the race.

As for last year’s winner Don Cossack, reports on his wellbeing were quite bleak through the summer but just last weekend his trainer indicated that the nine-year-old was back cantering. He suggested that a return was not imminent and that his likely schedule was to have one run around February before heading straight to Cheltenham. He is as big as 12/1 for the race which seems big at the minute but there isn’t much sense in backing him at the moment.

I think we will just let time tick by for a few weeks on the Gold Cup because it is still early days (especially without NRNB) for us to be making a selection with so many factors yet to become clear.



Novice Hurdlers



Novices over both sets of obstacles can be notoriously hard to pin down to races because as well as ability, targets are often also dictated by what else the yard has in the race or whether there looks to be a standout performer in the race. With that in mind, I don’t want to get too bogged down in which races horses are likely to target but I have split them up in the copy according to which races they look likely to end up in at present.



Supreme



Our first clues in the Supreme market came as early as September as Moon Racer and Ballyandy lit up a fixture at Perth by taking each other on in a novice hurdle. Racing close together throughout, it was David Pipe’s seven-year-old who found a little extra after the last to win by three-quarters of a length.

The pair renewed acquaintances about six weeks later at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse getting a 4lb pull in the weights, he was fancied to reverse the placings with that rival. However, that proved not to the case as, in a steadily run affair, Moon Racer quickened up the Cheltenham hill to win readily and stake his claim as a Supreme horse. He now finds himself as short as 6/1 for the Supreme and having only been beaten once to date, it is hard to look past him. As for Ballyandy, I suspect he will end up in the Neptune and personally I think he would have a leading chance if lining up.

Throughout the summer there are often horses who are talked about with the following year’s Cheltenham in mind and one such horse this time around was Senewalk who found himself as 8/1 favourite for the Supreme without having run in Britain or Ireland. However, he made his debut at Punchestown just over a week ago and having looked ok for most of the race, he faded tamely after the third last and was well beaten. His trainer Willie Mullins seemed to indicate afterwards that he felt the horse might have a wind problem but may give him the rest of the campaign off and bring him back as a novice next year.

A similar talking horse has been Jenkins who was a wide-margin winner of a Newbury bumper in April before finishing a close second at Punchestown later that month. Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old was well touted ahead of his hurdling debut last week at Newbury and despite being a little untidy with his jumping, he really picked up in the closing stages to win impressively under Barry Geraghty. There is still plenty for him to work on as he showed plenty of inexperience but he couldn’t be in better hands and it is no surprise to see him high up on many ante-post lists.

A couple of other Henderson inmate who made a winning start to his seasons was Lough Derg Spirit. The four-year-old won a novice hurdle at Kempton at the beginning of last week, jumping accurately before coasting clear between the final two flights under Jeremiah McGrath. He was very professional and having been bought for £190,000 in May, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Having come from the Irish pointing field it is no surprise that he is more forward in his development but he could end up in the Neptune come the end of the season.



Neptune



Looking at the intermediate race in the novice hurdling division, it was hard not to be impressed with Robin Roe, who made a winning debut over hurdles at Aintree in October. The winning pointer was successful on his only bumper start last term and there was a lot to like about the way he won at Aintree. He really powered clear of his rivals after the last and was eased down close home to win with twelve lengths to spare at the line. He could now head to the Challow Hurdle over Christmas, where we are likely to learn more about where he stands with the other leading novices.

Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty also threw his hat into the ring with an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Monksfield Novices’ Hurdle, his second victory over hurdles to date. The five-year-old travelled strongly to the second last, before stretching clear of his rivals and was only pushed out to the line to win by an extended seven lengths. He had some pretty smart bumper form and looks to have either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett as suitable targets come the Spring.

His target could be determined by where his stablemate Blow By Blow is steered, as the five-year-old now with Gordon Elliott looks likely to play a major role wherever he turns up in March. He is the only horse to have beaten Moon Racer in public and having moved to the Elliott yard from Willie Mullins over the summer, his reappearance is eagerly anticipated. In a recent stable tour his new trainer suggested that he probably wanted a trip but at this stage plans looks pretty fluid.



Albert Bartlett



As well as Death Duty, Gigginstown look to have another useful staying novice in the shape of Blood Crazed Tiger who is so far three from three over hurdles. The five-year-old also seems to have relished the step up to three miles on his last two starts including when winning in Listed company earlier this month. There is no doubt that he will need to improve on the form he has shown so far to be fancied in a race like this but he finds plenty for pressure and in a race where attrition is often the order of the day.

It is a long way off but one horse who I thought might improve for a step up in trip is Elegant Escape who made it two from two over hurdles when winning at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He looked to be losing the argument on more than one occasion in the 2m 5f contest but rallied gamely to get the better of Laser Light and in the end, looked to outstay his rival. He was only beaten narrowly in a point-to-point in April and it would be no surprise if 3m became his trip before the end of the season.



Triumph



It is too early to be even considering a bet in the Triumph as we most likely haven’t heard of the leading contenders just yet. Having said that I think it is worth highlighting a couple of performances which have taken the eye in the early part of the season.

Joseph O’Brien played a big part in Ivanovich Gorbatov winning in March and he looks to have a strong team of juveniles to go to war with this year now that the license is in his own name. He has acquired a number of cast-offs from Coolmore and one such horse Landofhopeandglory looks to have a bright future having won both of his starts over hurdles to date. It is worth noting that on both occasions his main rivals have been from his own stable but he was rated 102 on the flat and on what we have seen so far, he looks to have plenty of potential over obstacles.

The other one to mention is Philip Hobbs’ Defi Du Seuil who won with his head in his chest at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. He cruised round under Barry Geraghty and quickened up well when squeezed to win with plenty in hand. I’m not sure the form of those in behind is up to much but he was much better than them on the day and he seems to enjoy a bit of cut in the ground.



Novice Chasers



Arkle


I mentioned last year when advising Vaniteux for the Arkle how much Nicky Henderson’s runners are to be respected and although that particular horse could not deliver the goods, he looks to have the one to beat this year in the shape of Altior. Last season’s Supreme winner looked a chaser all over last year in terms of his size and he made no mistake at Kempton on his chasing bow earlier this month. In truth it turned into more of a schooling session than a race with his only rival unable to go the gallop but Noel Fehily was suitably impressed with the ante-post favourite. I suspect that we will get a better idea of his chasing prowess this weekend as he looks set to take in the Henry VII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in which he is likely to take on some higher class rivals. Sandown is notoriously tricky particularly over two miles as the test is so relentless and this should be a good test of his metal.

His nearest market rival at this stage is Min who chased him home in the Supreme in March and looks set to renew acquaintances at some stage this term. He made his chasing debut at Navan at the weekend and he was just about foot perfect in a field of seventeen. Ruby Walsh made sure he was towards the head of affairs throughout so the five-year-old had a clear sight of his fences and he jumped well. He went up a couple of gears between the final two fences and having popped the last, he stretched clear to win well at the line. He clearly has a bit to find with Altior on their Supreme form but Rich Ricci mentioned that they had ironed out some problems with Min and hoped they could close the gap if they met again.

This is unlikely to be a two horse division however as Identity Thief has also gone down the chasing route and already has a Grade 2 success to his name. He won the Fighting Fifth last term before finishing sixth in the Champion Hurdle in March and if he can transfer that form to fences, he wouldn’t have much to find with the likes of Altior and Min.

It has been a while since the north had a horse as exciting as Cloudy Dream and at this stage he looks to be capable of going to the very top over fences. He is two from two over the larger obstacles and his latest victory against more experienced rivals suggested that he was ready for a step up in grade. The ground would have been soft enough for him on that occasion but he handled it well and he looks likely to head to the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas for his next start.

One final horse to mention is Charbel who beat a couple of useful performers in the shape of Top Notch and Le Prezien on his chasing debut in October and they have gone on to boost the form since. Kim Bailey’s five-year-old looked a natural over the bigger obstacles and I am therefore surprised he is as big as 33/1 for this race and the JLT, especially when you consider that for the Arkle, Top Notch is as short as 14/1 and Le Prezien 16/1.



JLT



The four-year-old Clan Des Obeaux laid down a pretty good marker when running away with a Grade 2 contest at Newbury last Friday. Having made the odd mistake on his chasing debut at Chepstow, he seemed to benefit for that experience as he jumped much better last week. He never really came off the bridle as he sauntered clear on the run-in. There must be more to come from him with that being only his sixth start under rules and whilst he could make up into an RSA horse, I suspect that this will be his race come March.

He could be joined in that race by Politologue who made an impressive winning debut over fences, beating the useful Vintage Clouds by ten lengths under Harry Cobden. The five-year-old saw the 2m5f trip out very strongly which suggests stamina is his forte and he looks likely to be a better chaser than hurdler. With March in mind it is worth noting that his only below-par display last year came in the Coral Cup on quicker ground and he does seem to be better with cut in the ground.



RSA



With Barters Hill out for the season, we have already lost one potential star from this division but there are plenty waiting in the wings including Alpha Des Obeaux, who may have failed to perform on his chasing debut at the beginning of October but he has wasted no time in recording two victories over fences. The latest of those came in Grade 3 company over 2m4f where he ran on strongly late on and I think he will only improve again once stepped up to 3m.

As we have discussed already, Nicky Henderson has a wealth of talent at his disposal in most areas and this is no different. Different Gravey hasn’t had too much racing to date but he looked a natural over the larger obstacles when winning at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He did make a slight error at the second last which can be forgiven but once David Bass shook him up he really started to motor and he pinged the last. A winning pointer over 3m, he has only tried 3m once under rules at Aintree but I wouldn’t be concerned about him trying it again come the spring.

At this very early stage, one who stands out at a big price for the RSA is Martello Tower who won the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015. His connections decided to stick down the hurdling route last term without success but there was plenty to like about his chasing debut at Navan for all he was beaten a couple of weeks ago. That run came over 2m1f which would have been much too short for him but he ran on strongly in the closing stages. He looks likely to step up in trip this weekend which should reveal more but he looks a lively outsider at this early stage of the season.



Bets


JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)



As I discussed earlier re the World Hurdle there are a number of horses towards the head of the betting who are at this stage unlikely to line up in this race. That means that there are some horses who are bigger prices than they should be and at this stage I think Jezki is a big price at 14/1.

He missed all of last season having been found to have heat in his foreleg but the indications are that all is well with the eight-year-old and he is set to return to action at Leopardstown over Christmas.

It is worth bearing in mind that he was 6/1 joint favourite for the World Hurdle before being ruled out last year, having improved a good deal for stepping in trip when winning the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f and the World Series Hurdle over 3m at Punchestown. He has always been a high-class performer having won eight Grade 1s including a Champion Hurdle and if he returns with the same ability he left with, he could take all the beating in this race.

Clearly that isn’t a given but he likes Cheltenham, stays three miles and in my opinion he should be about 8/1 rather than 14/1 so I think he is a good horse to start my ante-post diary with for this year

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MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017


PART 2



Champion Hurdle


Faugheen missed another potential return last week as the eight-year-old did not feature amongst the declarations for the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. However, having missed the Morgiana with a bruise, Patrick Mullins reported on Friday that the gelding was back in work but that they were keen to wait until he was really sparkling before sending him back to the racecourse. Christmas looks a likely target with both the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, which he has won for the past two seasons or the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown both potential starting points.

In his absence, the Hatton’s Grace produced a thrilling renewal with Apple’s Jade getting the better of Faugheen’s stablemate Vroum Vroum Mag in a head-bobbing finish. The winner had the benefit of race fitness and she seemed to appreciate the step up in trip as she battled back gamely on the far side to hold off her rival. She is as short as 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this but you would have to think that the Mares’ Hurdle looks more likely at this stage. There doesn’t look to be much between these two and a glance at the betting for the Mares Hurdle tells you a similar story.

Away from the racecourse, one interesting piece of news to come out this week was that Yanworth is likely to stick down the two mile route, in a bid to keep him away from Unowhatimeanharry, who wears the same colours. He has been given an entry in the International Hurdle at the weekend but I understand that is as a back-up for My Tent Or Yours so it might be that we see him next at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. Personally, I felt that going up in trip was the only way to go following his laboured display in the Coral Hurdle and although he is as short as 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle, I would be surprised if he were good enough to break the Mullins stranglehold on the race.

I briefly alluded to this weekend’s International Hurdle a little earlier and this could offer some clues with Mister Miyagi, My Tent Or Yours, Old Guard and The New One all believed to be likely participants. Some of them have plenty to prove with March in mind but it looks a decent renewal and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.



Champion Chase


Sandown’s Tingle Creek attracted more attention last week for those not present than those who did turn up but despite Douvan swerving that engagement in favour of running at Cork this weekend, we were still treated to a pulsating renewal.

The race still went to the Master of Closutton as Un De Sceaux prevailed from Sire De Grugy despite making a mistake at the final two fences. If anything it was Un De Sceaux’s stamina which just gave him the advantage in the closing stages and unless it was soft ground, I find it hard to see winning a Champion Chase at the second attempt. I think we can all agree that Sire De Grugy’s best days are behind him and the close-up third God’s Own ran a fine race considering his blunder at the second fence but I think it is fair to say that we know his limitations with March in mind.

The one to take out of the race has to be Ar Mad who set out to make all under Joshua Moore but his jumping went to pieces briefly down the back straight. Sandown can do that to horses as the fences come up so quickly but it was encouraging to see him get back on an even keel and run on so strongly in the closing stages. It is no surprise to hear Gary Moore is considering stepping him up in trip but I wouldn’t bet against him reversing the form with those three if they met again. The question mark re the Champion Chase is that he has yet to prove he is as effective going left-handed and whilst the Ryanair would also be a viable option, I don’t think the Champion Chase has been completely ruled out just yet.



World Hurdle


Not much to talk about here other than what I have already mentioned above re Unowhatimeanharry. With Alan King’s Yanworth being kept away from the Long Walk Hurdle, it would appear that Harry Fry’s eight-year-old will represent the McManus operation in that race. In terms of the World Hurdle, he is now as short as 9/2 with the unlikely participant Faugheen, the only one ahead of him in the betting.



Gold Cup


The John Durkan Chase at Punchestown on Sunday is likely to see one of the Gold Cup contenders start their season off as Djakadam could attempt to defend his crown. A runner-up in the last two renewals of the Gold Cup, Willie Mullins’ gelding is still only seven and if he returns in the same form as he did twelve months ago, it is likely his price for the Gold Cup will contract come Sunday evening. It is worth bearing in mind that he is one of eight entries from the Mullins stable but at this stage he appears a likely runner.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Minella Rocco attracted some support for the Gold Cup at big prices last week but his supporters’ confidence will have been dented by the crashing fall at the final fence at Aintree on Saturday. He looked held on the run to that fence before coming down and I suspect that he is some way short of Gold Cup class and I imagine he will step back into handicap company for his next run. The winner of that race was Many Clouds who made all under Leighton Aspell and despite running in the Gold Cup in the past, I suspect that his campaign is likely to be geared towards regaining his Grand National crown.



Ryanair


As well as Un De Sceaux and Ar Mad being trimmed for this race following the Tingle Creek, Josses Hill also threw his hat into the ring with a fine front-running display in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Sunday. It is fair to say that Nicky Henderson’s gelding has had his fair share of problems jumping the larger obstacles but despite jumping a couple a little big, he jumped well on the whole under Noel Fehily. His trainer mentioned afterwards that he thinks he probably prefers going right-handed and that good ground is definitely important to him showcasing his best. He was eighth in the Ryanair this year but if he can hold his jumping together, he has the class to finish a good deal closer this time around.



Novice Hurdlers


Supreme


Willie Mullins’ Airlie Beach was introduced at 14/1 for the Supreme following her surprise victory in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The six-year-old is now unbeaten in seven starts under rules and she made just about all under Ruby Walsh to win with six and a half lengths to spare. There is no doubt her cause was aided by the fall of the favourite Peace News at the second last but she quickened away impressively and we have yet to see the limit of her abilities. Clearly there are plenty of options for her including the Mares Novice Hurdle but this is a strong piece of form.

As for Peace News, Henry De Bromhead’s four-year-old hadn’t been asked for an effort when coming down and he could be worth sticking with if he sharpens up his jumping. He remained unchanged in the Supreme market at around 14/1 with most firms following this mishap.

One of the more interesting moves in this market this week was the one for Crack Mome, a Graham Wylie-owned four-year-old in the care of Willie Mullins. He won his only start in a French bumper and has a couple of upcoming entries at Clonmel on Thursday and Navan on Saturday so he could be worth keeping an eye on considering he is already as short as 14/1 for this race.



Neptune


Last week’s Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Sandown on Friday may have thrown up a few Neptune clues with Messire Des Obeaux defying a penalty to get the better of last season’s Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy. It is fair to say that Alan King’s four-year-old looked booked for third between the final two flights but once the stamina came into play up the Sandown hill, he responded gamely to get his head in front and win by half a length. Daryl Jacob commented afterwards that he was a real galloper and that he could next head to the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. The bookmakers weren’t terribly moved as he remains as big as 25/1 for the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett.

As for the runner-up, he had looked as though he would appreciate the step up in trip and whilst he may have done, despite the conditions of the race favouring him, he was unable to get his head in front. He was pushed out to a general 20/1 for the Neptune and for the time being, it seems Nigel Twiston-Davies will have to go back to the drawing board.

The winner could be joined in the Challow Hurdle by Geordie Des Champs defied a double penalty to win at Chepstow on Saturday. Rebecca Curtis’ five-year-old seems to be coming along nicely at present and looks to have earned a step up in class, which should tell us more about his likely Spring targets.



Triumph


Joseph O’Brien continues to have a stranglehold on the Triumph Hurdle market and the current ante-post favourite Landofhopeandglory made it three from three over obstacles when winning the Grade 3 Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. It looked a strong field beforehand with Gordon Elliott saddling the impressive Down Royal winner Mega Fortune and the Mullins yard was represented by French hurdles winner Bapaume. It was these three who fought out the finish with the favourite responding generously to pressure once Barry Geraghty got stuck in after the last. He seems to be improving with each run over hurdles and should now head for the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is a general 7/1 shot for the Triumph at this stage but it is worth bearing in mind that we have yet to see his stablemates Housesofparliament and Sword Fighter (who were both rated higher on the flat) run over hurdles.

On this side of the Irish Sea, Defi Du Seuil looks the one with most potential at this stage of the season and he could get another chance to showcase his talents at Cheltenham this weekend. He could face a couple of winners in the shape of Cliffs Of Dover and Domperignon Du Lys which should tell us more about the ability he possesses.

We might also gain some clues up at Doncaster as they host the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle which was won by Peace And Co a couple of years ago. Alan King has a couple of entries both here and at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see which way he decides to go with his representatives.

The last performance to mention here was that of Evening Hush who won for the second time over hurdles for Evan Williams at Aintree on Saturday. Having made all at Exeter on her hurdling debut, she repeated the trick here, setting an even pace in front and her rivals looked to be struggling from some way out. Whether she goes down the Triumph route is unclear at this stage but she is clearly talented and she also has the option of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Festival.



Novice Chasers


Arkle

We got chance to see the Arkle favourite in action on Saturday as Altior took on three rivals in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Having completed what was effectively a schooling session at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, this was much more of a test for Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old and he made a couple of jumping errors early on before warming to the task. Noel Fehily was keen to keep hold of him and having tracked Charbel going to the last, he swept clear under hands and heels to win by six lengths. That acceleration from the back of the last showed just how talented a performer he is and if he does some work on his jumping, he looks the one they have to beat at the Festival.

I was also impressed with the run of Charbel in second and his trainer confirmed afterwards that they would look to step him up in trip going forward. He jumps well and could reappear in the Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.



JLT


A couple of potential JLT horses emerged in the last week including Its’afreebee who bounced back from a below-par run at Cheltenham to win at Wetherby on Saturday. The fitting of a tongue-tie for the first time seemed to make all the difference and the six-year-old was eased down close home to win impressively by seven lengths. In behind him was the 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden who was returning from an absence but he was still a shade disappointing. Much like his stablemate One Track Mind a week before he jumped very big and never really got into a rhythm over his fences. A step up to 3m should show him in a better light but he has plenty to prove over the larger obstacles as it stands.

Another who threw his hat into the ring was Alan Fleming’s Tully East who made a winning debut over fences at Thurles on Thursday. Denis O’Regan was reported to be very impressed with the six-year-old who could now step into Grade 1 company for his next assignment. He was fourth in the Martin Pipe at last year’s Festival and this gelding promises to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler.

It is also worth noting that Barry Geraghty doesn’t often head to Catterick on a Wednesday but he was there last week to partner Laissez Dire on his chasing debut. The four-year-old was a dual winner over hurdles in France and having accounted for the useful Work In Progress on the bridle, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him.



RSA


The Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase may be run over 2m4f but it often throws up plenty of clues for the RSA and the winner Coney Island looks sure to appreciate the step up to 3m in the future. Eddie Harty’s five-year-old jumped well in the hands of Mark Walsh and he found plenty once challenged after the last. This may have been a small surprise on the day but there didn’t seem to be any fluke about this and he could bid to follow up at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Back in second was Tony Martin’s Anibale Fly who seemed to run his race but just couldn’t pick up as well as the winner in the closing stages. He might just have been outstayed by the winner and could stick to this intermediate trip for the time being. Of the rest, Alpha Des Obeaux remains popular towards the head of the market for the RSA having attempted to make all here under Mark Enright. He is another who should appreciate a more searching test of stamina for his next assignment.

Martello Tower also threw his hat into the mix by getting off the mark at the second attempt on Saturday at Fairyhouse. The eight-year-old found 2m1f on the sharp side at Navan a few weeks ago but the 2m5f trip was much more suitable on this occasion and she showed a fine attitude to hold off the pursuing A Genie In A Bottle. This former Albert Bartlett winner should enjoy going back over three miles at some stage and he is the sort who tends to just do enough.

In Britain, Aux Ptits Soins made no mistake at Kelso on Sunday when getting off the mark at the second time of asking. He looked in need of the run at Exeter last month following a long absence but he stripped much fitter for this outing and had to dig deep to hold off the useful Westren Warrior close home. To be honest I was expecting a little more from him here but it is still early days and he should improve with experience.

The final one to mention Champers On Ice made a winning start to his chasing career at Uttoxeter today, getting the better of Kim Bailey’s Dueling Banjos. He seemed inclined to jump slightly to his left throughout the race and despite the odd mistake late on, he never really looked like getting beat. We are likely to learn more as the season goes on and he is stepped up in grade but this was an encouraging start to life over fences.



Bets

CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

I briefly mentioned above that I had been impressed with the run of Charbel on Saturday behind Altior with Kim Bailey’s five-year-old having jumped well for most of the way before succumbing to Altior’s potent turn of foot. In the aftermath, his trainer has confirmed that the intention is to go up in trip with him and he even mentioned that his most likely target at the Festival would be the JLT, although he would also get an entry in the Arkle.

I was therefore surprised to see that a couple of bookmakers still have him as big as 33/1 for that race, especially when you consider that Top Notch and Le Prezien (who he has already beaten over fences) are around half that price. Charbel has some form around Cheltenham having finished fifth in the Supreme and he may have finished closer but for a mistake at the final hurdle. The Henry VIII Novices’ Chase often serves as a good guide to the JLT with Taquin Du Seuil having been placed in this prior to winning the JLT and Bristol De Mai was placed in both races last year. I am aware that Charbel will need to continue to improve to win a race of this nature but he has already shown signs that he will be a better chaser than a hurdler and I think he is worth a small each-way bet at 33/1.



Ante-Post Portfolio

JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)

CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook