Racing Chat - Saturday 31st December

[BillyHills]

[beaker1]

12.10 Newbury – Betfred “£5k Bto Cash Draw Today” Juvenile Hurdle.

The opening race on Challow Hurdle day sees 11 juveniles go to post with a number of them already having experience under their belts.

 

Venetia Williams saddles Enola Gay who makes his British debut but he already has two runs over hurdles to his name in his native France. In terms of weighing up the form it is difficult but his jumping has been good on both occasions and he looks an interesting recruit for the yard.

 

Warren Greatrex also has an interesting runner in the shape of Final Choice who just found Alan King’s Tyrell to be too good on his hurdling debut at Warwick earlier this month. The front two drew well clear of the third that day suggesting that they could have been above average and with normal improvement, he shouldn’t be too far away.

 

The King yard is represented by Saint Contest who was fancied to go well on his debut at Wincanton but seemed to get tired in the closing stages. It is worth bearing in mind that the race in question saw him take on older rivals and he should fare better back against his own age group. He did travel like a nice horse for the most part and if he can see out his race better, then he looks the pick of those with form.

 

Nick Williams often does well with his juveniles so Siruh Du Lac looks worthy of respect having chased home the smart Evening Hush on his debut in November. The gelding showed up well for a long way before getting tired in the closing stages and he should improve physically for that initial outing. Lizzie Kelly takes a valuable 5lb off his back here and if he can step forward on his Exeter run, then he should be right in the shake-up.

 

Regal Gait is one of the final ones to mention and he made a solid start to life over hurdles when finishing second to the multiple winner Linger at Market Rasen earlier this month. A winner over 1m6f on the flat, he seemed to find Market Rasen a little sharp so the more testing Newbury should show him in a better light. Having said that, he was well beaten on the day and needs a good deal of improvement to trouble the market principals.

 

However, the one they may all have to beat is PERCY STREET who makes his hurdling debut having been purchased for 160,000 guineas in October. A dual winner on the flat, he is rated 98 and was last seen chasing home the smart To Be Wild at Doncaster in October. His trainer Nicky Henderson gave him a favourable mention following the victory of Charli Parcs at Kempton the other day and it seems big things are expected of him. The yard have a fine record in this race having won it four times in the last decade, including the last two renewals and I fancy their latest recruit to get off to a winning start here.

 

Advice

PERCY STREET – 2pts win @ 5/6 (bet365)

  
1.50 Newbury – Betfred “Goals Galore” Challow Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1)

The feature race at Newbury on Saturday is the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle and it has attracted a strong field, with interest from both sides of the Irish Sea.

The Irish interest comes as Gordon Elliott has opted to send over Baltazar D´Allier who made an impressive start to his hurdling career when winning at Naas in November. The Irish point winner had no trouble pulling away from his rivals in the closing stages and although the form isn’t working out too well, he was much the best on the day. His trainer mentioned afterwards that he was a bit babyish so he should improve for the experience and he clearly demands plenty of respect.

 

In terms of a pace angle in the race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ami Desbois make the running, having attempted to make all at Cheltenham last time. The six-year-old was reeled in close home by Wholestone but that was over three miles and dropping back in trip, he is likely to make it as hard a test as possible. He has more experience than most having contested Graded novice hurdles last season and you wouldn’t want the others to give him too much rope out in front.

 

The market leader is likely to be Robin Roe who made quite an impression when winning at Aintree in October, drawing clear of some useful rivals to win with twelve lengths to spare at the line. This race was nominated as the target immediately afterwards and the fact that he is towards the head of the market for the Neptune at Cheltenham in March indicates just how highly thought of he is. His absence shouldn’t be too much of a concern and he looks to be the one they all have to beat.

There are also a couple of novice hurdle winners at bigger prices which are open to improvement including Paul Nicholls’ Peak To Peak who made no mistake when winning at Fontwell last time. He needs to improve on the bare form of that run to contend here but he has only had the two runs so is open to improvement.

 

Perhaps the more interesting of the pair is Elegant Escape who showed a willing attitude when following up his Chepstow success at Ascot last month. He looked to be losing the argument on more than one occasion over the last two hurdles but battled back gamely to regain the lead and win going away at the line. Clearly his stamina is his forte and if it becomes attritional, then I can see him running better than his odds of 11/1 suggest.

 

However, the one I am going to side with his MESSIRE DES OBEAUX who recorded a hard fought win in Grade 2 company at the beginning of the month. That race saw him concede 7lb to the smart Ballyandy and having been initially outpaced, he ran on strongly in the closing stages. I would not be surprised to see Daryl Jacob have him a little more forward with that in mind and whilst the favourite looks the one to beat, our horse has the form in the book and can improve again.

 

 

Advice

MESSIRE DES OBEAUX – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)

 

 

  
2.25 Newbury – The Betfred TV Novices’ Limited Handicap Steeple Chase.

 

 

A select field of four line up here and while the race could have been more competitive, it still rates as an intriguing little contest.

 

Undoubtedly, KNOCKGRAFFON sets the standard on the back of his demolition of a similar event over course and distance at last month’s Hennessy meeting. The six-year-old progressed nicely as a novice hurdler last campaign, emerging as an outside fancy of many for the Imperial Cup, and rounded off a successful season with a dominant display at Newton Abbot. Having had a pipe-opener at Carlisle, he headed to Newbury and ran out a most convincing winner, despite making a near catastrophic blunder three fences from the finish and fiddling over the last. Prior to that, his jumping looked exemplary and connections even mooted a crack at the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on the back of that performance, with his jumping seen as a major asset to give him an edge on his rivals. A 12lb rise is probably fair given his facile victory last time out and while he may have to find another gear now, he looks to have plenty in the locker and should be able to land this contest before progressing into a Graded chaser in the New Year.

 

The biggest danger to Dan Skelton’s charge could come from his former employer Paul Nicholls with Fred Winter runner-up Romain de Senam. The four-year-old receives a handy 3lb weight-for-age allowance and looks every an inch a chaser on the evidence we have seen so far. He was put in his place by the classy Top Notch on his chasing debut at Plumpton whilst receiving nearly a stone but his rival did have the experience of a previous outing over fences and is probably on a different level in any case. This is a much more realistic target and a mark of 139 certainly doesn’t over-estimate him but he may have just managed to run into another highly progressive novice here and his day may come in handicaps in the spring.

 

Fellow four-year-old Cepage is another very much of interest having sluiced up over course and distance earlier this month. That was his first run for current connections having left Emmanuel Clayeux in France for €160,000 in July and he made a mockery of the handicappers initial assessment, romping home by 18 lengths off a mark of 119. He is another who has been hit with a 12lb rise but could quite feasibly still be on a good mark and could well develop into a Graded animal later in the season.

 

Icing On The Cake just sneaks in on 10st and while he looks to have a fair bit to find with his more experienced rivals, the winning Irish pointer will almost certainly improve for the switch to the larger obstacles and could get into the mix if it turns out to be a tactical affair.

 

 

Advice

KNOCKGRAFFON – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Paddy Power, Betfred)