Racing Chat - Sunday Nov 13th

[BillyHills]

3 for Sunday

[beaker1]

1.20 Cheltenham – Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)

With two runners from Henry De Bromhead’s stable and one from each of the Nicholls, Henderson, Tizzard and Twiston-Davies yards, this does have a real festival trial look to it, even though there may only be two or three that will be targeted at the Arkle itself in March.

Hammersly Lake ran respectably at Chepstow last month over a trip half a mile longer than this, only weakening out of contention from 3 out on despite pulling quite hard throughout and this drop back to two miles could well suit at this stiffer track. He’s sure to have come on plenty for that last run and could go well here off 11st 2lb.

Mick Thonic chased home Shantou Village last time out and even though that horse was well-beaten by Frodon subsequently when falling at the last, it’s still decent form as he had Qualando and Brother Tedd in behind, both useful animals. Still, there are a few very promising types in this race and I think he’ll just find himself a little outclassed despite possessing a good attitude and plenty of jumping ability.

The first of Henry De Bromhead’s two entries is Some Plan, who made a successful stable and chase debut in a two-runner race at Punchestown last month and receives a 4lb penalty for that. He showed plenty of potential at times for Paul Nicholls last season and despite his obvious quirks, could be very useful over fences, however he was a stone well-in with Art Of Payroll on hurdle ratings and wasn’t wildly impressive when beating him, so he’ll have to improve a lot again to win this much more competitive race.

Probably De Bromhead’s ‘first string’ is Three Stars, ridden for the first time by Richard Johnson, and on the form of his two fairly comfortable victories over Gigginstown’s Ball D’Arc, he’d have a leading chance here. The second of those wins was a Grade 3 so he’ll have an extra penalty to carry, giving 2lb and 6lb to the field. That won’t help matters and you’d think that the likes of Hammersly Lake and Some Plan will be much closer to him because of it, but he’s made a good impression so far this season and there’s no reason why he won’t go well again.

However, the one I want to be on here is LE PREZIEN for Paul Nicholls. Just two and a quarter lengths behind the brilliant Yorkhill in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree at the end of last season, this five-year-old has the best hurdles form of any of these by a fair margin. He made good on that promise when he impressed on his chasing debut, finishing just held by Charbel in a Novices’ Chase at Uttoxeter that could turn out to be very high class indeed with Top Notch a length back in third. He jumped nicely behind Charbel, who had the run of the race, and looked as if he was a little unlucky not to overhaul him later on – he’ll have come on plenty for that run and has the potential to rate very highly indeed in this season’s Novice Chasing ranks. This stiff two miles will suit and even though he might prefer a little more cut in the ground, it shouldn’t inconvenience him – he’ll be a hard horse to beat in this given he receives 4lb from Some Plan and 6lb from Three Stars.

MY Advice

LE PREZIEN – 1pt win

 

1.55 Cheltenham – Shloer Chase (Grade 2)

An intriguing renewal of this race in prospect, with plenty of questions about the eight runners to be answered – none more so than for Nicky Henderson’s Simonsig, who was once undoubtedly top class, but hasn’t shown that same spark in the hellish three years he’s had since winning the Arkle back in 2013. Injuries have derailed him time and time again and the three runs he had last season, while a little uninspiring, were promising in that he managed to actually get out on to the racecourse three times. We know much better than to say ‘you don’t get them back’ – see Sprinter Sacre – but even though the race conditions favour the grey (gets 10lb from Top Gamble for example) it’s difficult to be confident that a) he’ll even run and b) he’s still got the level of ability required to take a race like this. It would be great to see him back to his best, but at 3/1, it could be the right play to look elsewhere until he proves his ability remains.

Also getting weight from most of his rivals here is Henry De Bromhead’s Grade 1 stalwart, SPECIAL TIARA. In fact, if you go through the weight-adjusted ratings, he’s a full 18lb clear of top-weight Top Gamble and 11lb clear of next top-rated, Fox Norton, so if he’s wound up and ready to go first time out, he should take a lot of beating. However, even though De Bromhead’s yard is firing on all cylinders at the moment, the break he’s had is a concern – the nine-year-old has usually needed a race before getting into top gear for the season – he was 50 lengths fourth to Hidden Cyclone on last year’s reappearance while he was an eleven length fourth to Twinlight in November 2014, even though the soft ground on both occasions may well be a valid excuse. His third in the Champion Chase last season is the best piece of recent form in the race by quite some way and with the way that the weights are calculated here, he has to go close, even if he’s not 100% wound up.

Top Gamble, as previously mentioned, carries top weight and giving at least 4lb to everything else in the race, 10lb to some, on his reappearance is a very daunting task indeed. He’s also prefer plenty of rain to materialise, something that doesn’t look like happening, so he’s passed over here for another day.

Coming into the race, Fox Norton is definitely the one who is on the up. He proved his race fitness beyond a doubt when absolutely bolting up in a C&D handicap off a mark of 146, but he does receive a 4lb penalty for that effort here and this is a step up in class. You could argue that of all the Grade 2 chases he could have gone for, this is probably one with the least depth and most open to a progressive horse, but he’s come up short at this level every time he’s been asked the question, both over hurdles and fences, so the fact he’s been bought by the Potts’ and gone to Colin Tizzard’s yard doesn’t instantly make me think he’s a shoe-in to win a race like this. Undoubtedly that last run was impressive and he may have progressed enough to mix it at this level, but again, 3/1 is a short price to gamble that he’s reached a high enough standard to win a Grade 2.

Nicky Richards’ Simply Ned is certainly worth a mention as he’s got Group 2 ability and could well pick up the pieces if the favourites fail to fire. His last run, where he was second to a horse he was giving the best part of two stone to, was a nice introduction and he’ll have come on plenty for that. He needs a real strong gallop to aim at and with Special Tiara in the field, he should get that, so he’s not the worst each-way bet at around 8/1, even though he’s got plenty to find with that trailblazing rival.

One who could be anything and will be interesting to keep an eye on is Module – trained by Tom George and a horse that hasn’t seen the track since December 2014. He was very useful on his day, finishing third in Sire De Grugy’s Champion Chase win in 2014, so if the in-form George has him back fit and firing, he may be wildly overpriced in a race where he receives weight from many of the others.

MY  Advice

SPECIAL TIARA – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

 

2.30 Cheltenham – Stanjames.Com Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Perhaps the strongest trend associated with this race is that looking at age and whilst no one age group has dominated, those aged between four and six have proved best to follow. The seven-year-old Khyber Kim is the only winner in the last decade to sit outside the desired bracket which doesn’t bode well for the trio of older horses in this year’s line-up Rossetti, A Hare Breath and Thunder Sheikh.

In competitive handicaps fine margins can often make the difference and improving horses can often come out on top. The Greatwood is no different as seven of the last ten winners had no more than six starts prior to lining up here. That splits the field just about in half but some of the names that miss this trend are the likes of Hargam, Ch’tibello and John Constable.

However, that is not to say that lower-rated horses win this race, in fact the opposite is true. An official rating of 140 appears to be the benchmark as six of the last ten winners sat on or above this mark. In terms of this year’s field, the only qualifiers are the top eight as they appear on the racecard, Hargam, Sternrubin, Brain Power, Ch’tibello, Winter Escape, North Hill Harvey, Modus and Leoncavallo.

In terms of weight, 11st 6lb appears to be the limit as only four winners in the last decade have carried more than that to victory. Of this year’s field, only the top-weight Hargam, who carries 11st 12lb here, has such a burden to carry.

Good recent form is something that has served many punters well down the years in handicaps and this race is no different. To narrow it down, six of the last ten winners had achieved a top three finish on their most recent outing.  Of this year’s line-up, there are only seven who make the cut, namely Hargam, Sternrubin, Brain Power, Winter Escape, Modus, Leoncavallo and Rossetti.

The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and although there have been big-priced winners in the past, generally this race tends to centre around those towards the head of the betting. In fact six of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs so it is probably best to let the market guide your selections.

Shortlist

WINTER ESCAPE – 6/6

Modus – 6/6

Leoncavallo – 5/6

Conclusion

When all the relevant factors are taken into account, we are left with two horses who match all six of our trends and both are owned by JP McManus.

My preference is for WINTER ESCAPE who arrives here having won all three of his hurdles starts to date. Alan King decided to swerve the Spring Festivals last season following the five-year-old’s victory in the Dovecote at Kempton and is hoping to reap the rewards this winter with him. The two horses he beat on that occasion Marracudja and Welsh Shadow have done plenty for the form since then and he looks an exciting prospect as he enters his second season hurdling. This race is likely to be quite different to anything he has encountered before but he travels well in his races so he should be able to cope with a strong pace. The stable of Alan King has been firing in the winners left, right and centre in the past couple of weeks and although we have to go back to 2006 to find the last winning favourite, he looks to have a leading chance.

Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Modus who won his first two starts over hurdles last term. He was pitched into the Betfair Hurdle not long after but never got into the race that day and he turned in a similarly disappointing effort in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, on his return to action at Ascot last month, he looked like a horse who enjoyed the big-field scenario, weaving through horses in the closing stages to finish a close third behind Sternrubin. He has only been raised 1lb for that effort and a reproduction of that sort of run would see Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old go very close.

The final member of the shortlist is Leoncavallo who was trained last season by John Ferguson to finish fifth in the Triumph Hurdle. Having had a spell on the flat for Charlie Appleby in the summer, he is now in the care of Ben Pauling for whom he finished second on his first run for the yard at Cheltenham in October. He only found the smart Sceau Royal to be too good on that occasion and that horse boosted the form when landing the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton last weekend. The only thing preventing him from having a perfect record is that he has had eight starts over hurdles, winning five of them. This will be his first run in handicap company but with Alex Ferguson taking a useful 7lb off his back, he can’t be dismissed.

MY Advice

WINTER ESCAPE – 2pts win @ 11/4 (bet365)

 

3.05 White Christmas Parties at Cheltenham Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.

The sight of a 21-runner conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but I have reasons to believe CALL TO ORDER can run a cracking race off his opening mark of 120. Each time he has taken to the track he has come up against a talented rival. He bumped in Winter Escape (unbeaten and favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle on this card) on his hurdling debut but was only five and a quarter lengths back in 3rd. He then reappeared this season at Chepstow where he was 6th behind Geordie Des Champs and Capeland who have both won since and are now rated 125 and 122 respectively. He then took a step forward with upped in trip when returning to Chepstow, where he finished a close 3rd behind two promising sorts in Elegant Escape and Persian Delight. The main concern would be the stable form but Call To Order has now had two runs this season so fitness can now be assured. The step up in trip definitely seemed to suit last time and this well-bred €160,000 purchase looks well-weighted to make an impact here.

Clonalig House is an obvious danger given his shrewd connections but has been raised 7lb after winning a lesser contest at Musselburgh. Ballyarthur represents the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies yard and is likely to come for his seasonal debut at Carlisle a month ago. Being an Irish Point winner this trip will be ideal and is hard to overlook.

David Pipe has won three of the last five runnings of the race and Chic Theatre is his sole representative here. He’s a two-mile novice hurdle winner but finished a disappointing last of five at Towcester 39 days ago and despite connections, a big leap of faith is required here.

Of the other Looksnowtlikebrian has won his last two but races off 16lb higher, making life much tougher. So, Solumn Grundy could be the biggest danger for Neil Mulholland, a trainer I rate very highly. He made no mistake winning on his final start of last season and it’s hard to gauge his ability, making it hard to dismiss him on his seasonal return. However, preference is still for Call To Order who arrives here with assured fitness and solid form in the book.

MY Advice

CALL TO ORDER – 0.5pt each-way

 

3.40 Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed)

A Listed Bumper closes proceedings and this race has been won by some very smart types in the past, including Rock On Ruby, Red Sherlock and last year’s Champion Bumper winner, Ballyandy.

These are big boots to fill but I’m hoping SUMKINDOFKING can follow up his recent facile victory at Chepstow when he won in the style of an above average animal. The form can be scrutinised but he could only beat what was put in front of him, which he did with the minimum of fuss, drawing away on the bridle. He travelled powerfully and appears to possess a great engine, all the makings of a smart type. He was well-backed beforehand, suggesting connections knew they had a nice prospect on their hands. The new partnership of Tom George and Adrian Heskin couldn’t have started better and there looks to be much more to come from this Irish Point-to-Point winner with the stable in superb from.

The main danger on paper looks to be Brahms De Clermont for the powerful Paul Nicholls stable. This five-year-old supplemented his winning debut at Taunton by taking a bumper at the recent Showcase meeting. On that occasion Stan Sheppard was able to offset the horses penalty with his 7lb claim, but as this is a Listed event he is unable to claim. Also, this particular bumper wasn’t the strongest for the course so he could be vulnerable.

Boreham Bill is well-regarded by his trainer by Ben Pauling and his runners always warrant a second look in this sphere. A winner on his debut at Market Rasen, in which the runner-up has since gone on to run well over hurdles, there is more to come from this four-year-old. He could actually prove the biggest danger to the selection and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him.

Gustave Mahler won the Goffs UK Point-to-Point Bumper at Aintree back in May before proving that to be no fluke under Rules when following up at Worcester. Alastair Ralph is better known for his exploits in the Pointing arena so may not be a familiar name, but that doesn’t mean this horse can be overlooked lightly. He does lack the potential of some of these but it would be no surprise to see him run well at a price.

Fergal O’Brien is another trainer in fine form and he saddles two runners here. Imperial Eloquence could easily have a say in this on his seasonal return. He won a Hexham bumper last season before beating all bar one rival under a penalty at Perth. He needs to step forward on that bare form but there is every chance he could with his yard amongst the winners. However, the yards other runner Poetic Rhythm could hold stronger claims after an impressive win in a Chepstow bumper 35 days ago. Having said that, he ran behind the re-opposing Gustave Mahler in the Point-to-Point bumper at Aintree, so may have his work cut out turning that form around.

Bags Groove and Allez Sea are two others who deserves a mention. The former has form figures of 212 in bumpers and ran a cracker under a penalty in a valuable bumper at Newbury back in May. That was a smart race and was ultimately only undone by the penalty. He too is another one to watch in the market on his first run of the season. Meanwhile, the latter was last seen winning at Fairyhouse by four lengths and there could be more to come from this son of Sea The Stars. He comes here fit and well with that run coming 36 ago, however, there’s a sneaky suspicion he could bump into something better here.

MY Advice

SUMKINDOFKING – 1pt win