Race Of The Week : Betvictor Gold Cup

[richard-westwood]

Rated

Art maresque   99.12

Double shuffle   99,11

As De mee   99.07

Always a difficult race ....I don't like frodon ...just looks a bit too novicey for this and too short ....Art maresque and double shuffle look the two for me ..,,both two and a half milers..both showing a good level of form at this level....impossible to separate as they meet on dead level terms this time so value lies with art maresque at 12/1 but tag team to be safe 

Art maresque 5 pts win 12/1 Will h

Double shuffle  5 Pts win 10.0 betfair 

[beaker1]

BET VICTOR GOLD CUP TRENDS 2016    --[ thanks to racecaller for the use of these trends ]

The Bet Victor Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 12th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 11th to 13th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-3-13

6yo: 2-6-30

7yo: 6-9-55

8yo: 1-4-44

9yo: 0-8-27

10yo: 0-0-10

11yo+: 0-0-6

Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-18-98

Horses aged 8+: 1-12-87

None of the 16 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 1-5-41

Horses carrying 10-13 to 11-3: 5-7-38

Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 4-18-106

5 of 10 winners carried 10-13 to 11-3, and that weight band represented just over 20% of the runners. Al Ferof (in 2012) has been only winner to carry over 11-3 in past 10 years.

Top Weight: FPP65PPP423 (0-3-11)

 

Official Ratings

Horses rated 150 or higher: 1-9-52

Horses rated 139 to 149: 9-13-99

Horses rated 138 or less: 0-8-34

9 of 10 winners were officially rated 139 to 149 from 53.5% of total runners.

 

Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (1 exception placed at previous 2 Cheltenham Festivals)

9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 3F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point wand was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)

10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better

5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle, one other placed in listed handicap chase)

4 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 6 had run once that season, 4 winning, 1 finished 2nd and other 7th in Galway Plate)

5 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start

10 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences

10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers

8 of last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

 

Other Races

Previous season's winner (Annacotty): 2 (0-1-1)

Highest placed finisher from Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase: P12F3P535 (1-3-9)

Record of first 7 from Close Brothers Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P52106305 (3-5-20)

Raymond Mould Memorial Novice Chase winner (More Of That): 14 (1-1-2)

Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (More Of That): 1P (1-0-2)

Freebets.co.uk Trophy H'cap Chase winner (Annacotty):  7061 (1-0-4)

Racing FX Prelude Handicap Chase winner (Vintage Vinnie): P0 (0-0-2)

Previous December Gold Cup winner (Village Vic): 5UP (0-0-3)

BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase winner (Village Vic): PPPP7 (0-0-5)

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211

3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 167

2 of 2 third season chaser winners ran in Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase, finishing F0

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in John Smith's H'cap Chase at Aintree, finishing 63

7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival

 

Trainers

Paul Nicholls (2-3-20) saddled the winner in 2012 & 2014.

Jonjo O’Neill (2-2-12) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006 & John’s Spirt to win it in 2013 and finish 2nd in 2014.

Alan King (1-3-10) trained Annacotty to win this in 2015.

The Pipe stable (1-1-14) have accounted for 4 of the last 14 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-14) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.

Nicky Henderson (0-6-19) & Phillip Hobbs (0-2-8) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2006.

Jamie Snowden (0-1-1) & Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-3) have both saddled a placed finisher in last 2 years.

Irish based trainers (1-2-18) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.

 

Price

8 of 10 winners were priced between 11/2 and 12/1

The favourite has won this 5 times since 2000 but only once in last 10 years.

Favourites (1-3-10) have gained just 1 win and 3 places from 10 runners since 2006 and show a £1 level stakes loss of £3.50.

 

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7

- Officially rated 139 to 149  

- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase

- Had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F

- Second or third season chaser (preferably 2nd season chaser)

- Previously run less than 10 times over fences

- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases

- First 3 in 2015 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup

- Ran in a chase at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival

- Finished in first 7 in Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase

- Trained in Great Britain

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Alan King or Jonjo O’Neill