How do you calculate odds and determine value?

[Division]

I'm wondering what approach people take to selecting a bet and deciding if the odds on offer are value.

I have designed an excel spreadsheet where I input my opinion of the goals scored percentage per team and it generates a table that I can compare to the odds on offer from a range of bookmakers and can quickly see where the value is.

This is the output table for Chelsea v Man Utd.

I can quickly see that the value based on my opinion is on over 1.5 goals.

The odds are not big, but in the long run the most important thing is value.

For someone who wants bigger odds I can see that the next value bet is 'Both Team To Score' @ 1.91 with William Hill which might appeal to most bettors.

This approach has refined my betting dramatically and increase my ROI significantly.

It also highlights to people that while Both Teams To Score offers quite a bit of value in my opinion I expect this bet to lose 40% of the time so bankroll management is also important.

How do you do it?

[Sir Puntalot]

Great question. I can honestly say with me, I calculate it in my head without too much thought. I look at any event that I know well and come up with a rough price in my head and after betting since I was 15, I'm usually fairly accurate. If I see odds bigger, I'm all over it.