CTP Form Factors

Aristillus · October 14, 2016

Hi There,

I want to present (as a test) something I call CTP Form. It's a new way of scoring a team's form, and to show the form as a more accurate dynamic variable. The premise (I believe) is new and novel. C.T.P stands for 'capture the point'.

The idea is predicated on what teams play for...the win, followed by the draw. The normal scoring is 3 points for a win, 1 point for the draw, and 0 for the loss. This scoring system does not give an accurate presentation of a team's actual form, it is too blunt, what is required is greater resolution.

Theoretically, one can say that both teams already start the game with a point each, and the goal for each team is to capture the other team's point, with this in mind, I have both teams playing to win just 1 point. So, at the start of the season all teams actually begin with 46 points, 23 points for home, and 23 points for away, and throughout the season, teams will either add to or lose points depending on whether or not they win or lose. If they draw, nothing is gained, both teams hold onto the point they could have lost.

When a team wins, it adds 1 point to their tally of 23 it began with at the start of the season off the losing team. When a team loses, a point is deducted of the 23 points it began with at the start of the season...and so on.

With that in mind, here are CTP Form graph charts for the Championship, League One, and League Two for this weekend. The charts are, of course, suggestive only, they are not predictive, but you can use them as a guide. Dark green is the home team. Always bear in mind that teams do not always perform to the level their past results indicate. Form is a volatile variable, so it will and can go up and down in one game.

By the way, the red line across the graph is the baseline 23 points. Above this line indicates better than average form. At this line indicates average form, and below the line indicates below average form.

Good luck