Wednesday Racing - (Punchestown Day 2)

[BillyHills]

Gold Cup

Verdict:

I can’t see any other result than a win for Cue Card here. It wont be an original selection but the door has been well and truly left wide open with the injury to Don Cossack. He only has to repeat his Aintree run to see him home and on this ground shouldn’t have anything to fear from Don Poli who needs heavy ground. Djakadam will no doubt run his usual game race but for the forecast I would be inclined to go for Road To Riches. He will better now he’s back up in trip and wont mind the conditions; he was 3rd here last year and is a very consistent performer.

Selection:  Cue Card @ 4/7 Bet365

Forecast: Cue Card to beat Road To Riches

 

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[BillyHills]

Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle

Verdict:

A difficult race to weigh up with the solid Grade 1 form of Bellshill up against some improvers and unexposed sorts. Bellshill is certainly the best Mullins runner in the race although he’s been to Cheltenham and Aintree so has had a hard season. Coney Island might be worth watching, he steps up from handicap company but improved a lot for the step up to this trip and there may be more to come. Acapella Bourgeois is interesting and is just preferred as I think he will improve for three miles and is as game as they come. He will more than likely try and lead these and will be vary hard to pass late on and looks a certain each way bet to nothing at the prices.

Selection:  Acapella Bourgeois EW @ 5/1 Bet365

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[richard-westwood]

Another wide open hcap 

640 punch 

Follow me up to carlow 99.04

pass the hat. 99.04 

Croco bay. 99.04 

unisually for first time i think its a three way tie which in such a big race is unusual ....but means plenty of value on offer especially as all three are 16/1+!!....ill go straight wins 

followmeuptocarlow 5 pts win 16/1 bet365

passthe hat 5 pts win 16/1 bet365

croco bay 5 pts win 20/1 bet365

[BillyHills]

Three For Wednesday

4.30 Ascot:  Arod @ 9/4 Betfair

4.15 Pontefract:  Fast Shot EW @ 7/1 Bet365

3.55 Ascot:  Dhahmaan EW @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

 

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[beaker1]

3.40 Punchestown – Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle

This looks like a devilishly difficult race to try and decipher with the majority of the field having lots more question marks than answers.

Adimelo is one of the likelier types though if he recaptures his form shown when landing a maiden hurdle at Roscommon last July. Alan Fleming’s charge had a lofty reputation (and a hefty price tag to boot) when coming over from France on the back of his win in a Champion Bumper. His debut for his new connections was a pleasing one as he shaped nicely throughout before kicking on up the run-in for the win. He failed to follow that up in a pair of novice events after that though and it remains to be seen whether his opening mark of 121 is a lenient one on his return from over seven months off the track.

Another returning from a long absence is Bank Bonus who has arguably shown the most consistent form in the field, albeit last summer. He was an impressive winner at Perth in July and followed up later that month with a fine performance to finish second in a competitive handicap at the Galway Festival. He was far from disgraced in a rated hurdle at Downpatrick shortly after and must be afforded a chance if ready to go again here.

His stablemate Steamboat Bill is also worthy of consideration on the back of a gutsy win of a Down Royal maiden hurdle back in February. The front two pulled well clear that day and he had to show all of his battling tendencies to hold on to the lead on the run-in. Considering that was in ground much deeper than ideal, it was a pleasing performance and conditions here should prove to be more to his liking.

Adrian McGuinness landed this race three years ago and has a live chance in the shape of Pivot Bridge. The eight-year-old hasn’t proven to be the most consistent over the years put has a decent record at the Punchestown Festival, finishing a good in a handicap hurdle two years ago and a close-up sixth last year. He had his first attempt at 2m4f on his last hurdles start, shaping nicely before taking a tumble at the last. He may have been tiring that day but the better ground here should prove to be in his favour and he is still unexposed at middle distances.

Candlestick is also worthy of a mention from the Jessica Harrington stable on the back of a nice win at Fairyhouse earlier this month. The five-year-old is a well-bred sort but had taken a while to get the hang of things until responding for pressure last time out. He could well be a stark improver now the penny has dropped and is well worth keeping an eye on.

Shortlist

Adimelo

Pivot Bridge

Steamboat Bill

Bank Bonus

4.20 Punchestown – Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle

Willie Mullins’ Balko Des Flos has run in Grade 1 company on his last two starts an in fairness, has run with credit on both outings, finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett and fourth in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. On both occasions he was ridden patiently to get the 3m trip but he seemed to find it hard work late on and it is easy to see why his connections are dropping him back in trip to 2m4f. He looks the pick of the Gigginstown pair and looks a must for the shortlist.

Another with Grade 1 form to their name is Supasundae who was last seen finishing seventh in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He has been keen on both visits to Cheltenham and failed to fire once again there but he failed to improve on his Cheltenham display at Punchestown last season and he steps up in trip here. He clearly has ability but he has plenty of questions to answer at present.

JP McManus paid 23,000 euros for Hard To Call as a foal and having won a point at the first time of asking, he was beaten on his first start under rules in March. He improved on that to win with his head in his chest next time at Limerick and he looks an exciting prospect for chasing in the future. The step up to 2m4f should be no problem for him and if he can continue his progress, he could make his presence felt in this company.

The British raider Baden could also find himself in the mix having been unsuited by the heavy ground at Cheltenham at the end of January. He travelled well for a long way that day before getting tired and considering he won his point-to-point on quicker ground, he should relish the conditions here. There should be improvement to come having had only two starts under rules and he looks to have a strong chance.

Shortlist

Balko Des Flos

Baden

Hard To Call

 
4.55 Punchestown – Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)

In terms of age, the six-year-olds look to hold the advantage in this particular contest having been responsible for eight of the last twelve winners, including all of the last five. They make up over half the field this year with seven representatives including leading fancies Bellshill, Acapella Bourgeois and Emerging Force.

Another equally strong trend is that eight of the last twelve horses to be victorious had missed both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, which is perhaps surprising considering the quality of recent winners. If we apply that to this year’s field, it suggests a major negative mark against Bellshill, who ran in the Supreme Novices’ at the Cheltenham Festival and the Sefton Novices’ at Aintree. His stablemates Arkwrisht and Gangster were also both in action at at least one of the major spring festivals.

The Agnelli Motor Park Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse has been a strong guide for this race in the past although horses haven’t necessarily done the double. The most recent horse to run in both and win this race was Morning Assembly who fell at Fairyhouse before coming here to win in 2013. This year, the race went the way of Sandra Hughes’ Acapella Bourgeois and with that having been his second Grade 2 success he has earned a crack at this level.

Willie Mullins’ Bellshill heads the market at around the 2/1 mark but given the poor recent record of favourites, he looks worth taking on at the head of the market. He also seemed to find the 3m stretching his stamina reserves when second at Aintree last time and I wonder whether he might be better over 2m4f.

A must for the shortlist has to be Acapella Bourgeois who has won three of his five starts since coming to Ireland this season. He has won his last two starts in Grade 2 company and whilst he has yet to tackle 3m, he has finished his races over 2m4f off strongly, giving hope that he will enjoy this extra distance. He also showed last time that he handled quicker ground and he looks a major player.

Nicky Henderson’s Beat That was the last British raider to be successful in 2014 and we look to have another leading fancy, in the shape of Emerging Force.  He has been progressive in handicaps this term and seemed to relish the step up to 3m at Doncaster in February. He may well have won next time at Haydock but for unseating at the last and he looks to have earned a tilt at this sort of company.

One at a big price who could be worth chancing is Sandymount Duke who hasn’t been spotted since finishing third at Cheltenham in October. Prior to that he had won four times on the bounce on good ground and that is presumably why he has been absent over the winter. He returns with the Jessica Harrington stable in flying form and although he is a year older than ideal at the age of seven, he can’t be ruled out despite his sizeable odds.

Shortlist

Acapella Bourgeois

Emerging Force

Sandymount Duke

5.30 Punchestown – Bibby Financial Services Ireland Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1)

If you go back five years or so, the Brits had a great record in this race and that trend looks likely to continue here with Cue Card heading the market. The popular veteran has been better than ever this season and looked likely to give Don Cossack a run for his money when tipping up 3 out in the Gold Cup. His dominant performance in the Betfred Bowl showed that he felt no ill effects from his tumble and he sluiced up in no uncertain terms. Don Poli was way back in second that day and there would seem to be no reason why the Mullins runner would reverse that form.

His stablemate, Djakadam, could have a say in matters though and comes out of the race on top on the trends. He is one of only three runners in the race to have winning course form and contested the two key races in the lead up to this, the John Durkan Memorial Chase and the Gold Cup. He was well beaten at Aintree but is a leading player if bouncing back to somewhere near his best.

Shortlist

Cue Card

Djakadam

 
6.05 Punchestown – Attheraces.com Champion INH Flat Race (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins has won four of the last five renewals of this race and he looks likely to dominate again. He has a quality looking sextet headed by the Aintree Champion Bumper winner Bacardys who could be very difficult to beat. He stayed on well into third in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper and kept on strongly to prevail by a length in the Aintree equivalent. He is once again the choice of Paddy Mullins, which suggests he is the first string, and could just have the edge over his stablemate Battleford.

Katie Walsh’s mount must be feared having finished runner-up in both Champion Bumpers so far beaten a combined distance of just over half a length. He is the clear next best ahead of the four-year-old Aspen Colorado. He was the hype horse in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival  but hasn’t been seen since making hard work of it in a Leopardstown bumper at the back end of February. His absence may be more down to caution from his trainer as he is still only a juvenile and the fact he arrives here fresh could give the upper-hand on some of his rivals. The handy 10lb weight for age will certainly help as well and he could run a big race.

Shortlist

Bacardys

Battleford

Aspen Colorado

6.40 Punchestown – Guinness Handicap Chase

This looks a typically wide open handicap for the meeting with a mix of progressive chasers as a couple of performers whose marks have taken a tumble in recent months.

We will start with the progressive ones and Barry John Murphy’s Pairofbrowneyes has won his last two starts over fences and comes here attempting to defy a 9lb hike in the weights. His trainer commented following his latest run that he was improving and having won going away on that occasion, the rise doesn’t seem insurmountable.

Another horse on the up is Colms Dream who won impressively over fences at Leopardstown in February, getting a 14lb bump in the weights as a result. He showed he was still in fine form when taking advantage of a much lower hurdles mark at Down Royal last month and today’s jockey Donagh Meyler clearly gets on really well with the seven-year-old, there should be more to come from him at this age, but it is hard to see him being that well-handicapped off a mark of 139.

Instead it may be better to have a second look at the veterans Ted Veale and Captain Conan who were Grade 1 horses at the peak of their powers but come here following a couple of disappointing efforts. The latter has been restricted to just five runs since winning a Grade 1 chase at Aintree in April 2013 and was well beaten in the Ryanair last time. Tony Martin brought Ted Veale back from an absence in March but the nine-year-old failed to fire over hurdles and will need to step forward on what we have seen of late.

The race could be between two horses at opposite ends of the weights, the first being Irish Cavalier who does carry top-weight but Jonathan Moore takes a valuable 5lb off his back. He was fifth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a 3lb higher mark in November, looking the winner two out but just didn’t get home on the day. He will enjoy this sort of ground and as long as he hasn’t got too much weight on his back, he looks a likely player for the frame.

He could fight out the finish with Pass The Hat who ran well in the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster in January but just failed to see out the 3m trip on that occasion. He was dropped back in trip for the Topham at Aintree but was hampered by fallers and was ultimately well beaten. These regulation fences should be a better reflection of his ability and with Arthur Moore having booked top conditional Jack Kennedy, it would be no surprise to see him go close.

Shortlist

Pass The Hat

Irish Cavalier

Captain Conan

 
7.15 Punchestown – Weatherbys Ireland European Breeders Fund Mares INH Flat Race (Listed Race)

The final race on day two sees the mares take centre stage in the bumper and Augusta Kate is bound to be popular having found only too good in the Grade 2 Mares’ bumper at Aintree. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old was only beaten five lengths when taking on the boys in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and against her own sex, she looks a leading contender.

The Mullins yard are also represented by Glens Harmony, a full-sister to Grade 1 winner Glens Melody who makes her racecourse debut. As a four-year-old she receives over a stone in weight from those at the top and if she can run well at the first time of asking as her sister did, she could be interesting in receipt of weight all around.
Jessica Harrington also has a four-year-old filly in the race by the name of Forge Meadow, who won impressively on her debut at Fairyhouse at the end of March. Her connections confirmed afterwards that she had been working well and that this race was the target so it is no surprise to see her step up in class. She gets nearly a stone from the likes of Augusta Kate at the top and if she can step forward from her debut run, she would have to rate a leading fancy.

There are also a couple of runners from Britain including The Nipper who made it three from three in this sphere when winning the Listed Mares Bumper at Sandown on Imperial Cup day. She made just about all that day but showed signs of inexperience as she drifted across the track under pressure but still managed to hold on to her lead. Nina Carberry looks an eye-catching jockey booking for the Greatrex stable and having handled quicker ground at Bangor in May, she looks likely to run well.

Shortlist

Augusta Kate

Forge Meadow

The Nipper