Matt's Pony Racing Club

[mattyrobinson]

Going to start posting my selections in this thread so that you all know which horses to avoid betting on 

I don't tend to restrict myself to certain types of race, so there'll probably be everything from the 2000 Guineas to Class 6 Southwell handicaps in here. Where I have time I'll probably include a rough tissue, although most of my betting relies on whether I perceive the odds to be fair without having fully priced up the race. As always, comments/suggestions/arguments/compliments are all welcomed so feel free to get involved!

Here goes...

 

3.05 Navan - Glamorous Approach (8/1) 1 pt Win Paddy Power

This looks an interesting race with a few that have big race entries ahead of them. I think, particularly given the soft ground and the fact that few have raced over this distance, it could pay to side with one that's had a recent run. the two that fit the bill are market leader Queen Blossom who won a group 3 at the Curragh lto, and Glamorous Approach (4th in same race). While I respect the merits of Queen Blossom on the back of that, this step up in trip is a bit of an unknown, and as a result I'm willing to pass the 7/4 on offer. Glamorous Approach has no such doubts with respect to the trip, with the 8f last time probably inadequate if anything.  Hopefully she'll have stripped a bit fitter for that and she can reverse the form here. 

 

3.40 Navan - Ceol Na Nog (9/2) 1 pt Win B365

Ran a blinder on seasonal return to finish 4th behind Ineffable (reopposing here) having kicked on too soon. The winner had the benefit of a recent run behind him that day and has to contend with a 6lb pull in the weights here. I'd be surprised if the selection wasn't up to winning off a mark of 66 based on that effort. The main danger could be Dewdrop, who Ryan Moore rides for Aiden O'Brien, although there are a few who look like they might enjoy the extended trip based on breeding.

Edited April 17, 2016 by mattyrobinson

[mattyrobinson]

Feeling slightly aggrieved with two 2nd places for the day but both were well beaten in fairness (albeit clear of the rest). Glad to see that both managed to reverse form with the market principles as expected. I think most of Aiden's horses will improve for their runs, with Dewdrop an eye-catching 3rd after being forced to make up early ground after a sluggish start. 

Staked: 2

Returned: 0

P/L: -2.00

ROI: -100.00%

 

Monday 18th April

2.40 Pontefract - Terhaal (3/1) 1 pt Win B365

David O'Meara has a good record in this race having won twice in the last 5 runnings, and looks to be in with another good shout here. Terhaal won a 7f maiden as a 2yo (then trained by William Haggas) before switching yards and putting in some decent efforts in soft ground handicaps last winter. Pontefract has a very stiff finish so the fact that he has proven form in testing conditions rates a big plus. There's generally a slight draw bias towards the lower numbers with the inside rail favoured on the run in, although they do occasionally race wide in search of better ground when conditions are testing. Has been touted by his owner as a potential improver this year so clearly they feel that he should improve past his current mark. Looking through the rest of the field, there are a few with slight question marks over getting the trip given the emphasis on stamina here. One that I would look out for in light of that is top weighted Marsh Pride - he looks on a workable mark and has form at up to 10f, though is drawn poorly. Trinity star has a fantastic record over C&D so far, but there are serious question marks over the ground.

I don't normally like to take an early price in a race like this but I'm worried that money might come for this one so I'm willing to play.

 

Probably one or two more for tomorrow to come.