Matt's Pony Racing Club

[mattyrobinson]

Going to start posting my selections in this thread so that you all know which horses to avoid betting on 

I don't tend to restrict myself to certain types of race, so there'll probably be everything from the 2000 Guineas to Class 6 Southwell handicaps in here. Where I have time I'll probably include a rough tissue, although most of my betting relies on whether I perceive the odds to be fair without having fully priced up the race. As always, comments/suggestions/arguments/compliments are all welcomed so feel free to get involved!

Here goes...

 

3.05 Navan - Glamorous Approach (8/1) 1 pt Win Paddy Power

This looks an interesting race with a few that have big race entries ahead of them. I think, particularly given the soft ground and the fact that few have raced over this distance, it could pay to side with one that's had a recent run. the two that fit the bill are market leader Queen Blossom who won a group 3 at the Curragh lto, and Glamorous Approach (4th in same race). While I respect the merits of Queen Blossom on the back of that, this step up in trip is a bit of an unknown, and as a result I'm willing to pass the 7/4 on offer. Glamorous Approach has no such doubts with respect to the trip, with the 8f last time probably inadequate if anything.  Hopefully she'll have stripped a bit fitter for that and she can reverse the form here. 

 

3.40 Navan - Ceol Na Nog (9/2) 1 pt Win B365

Ran a blinder on seasonal return to finish 4th behind Ineffable (reopposing here) having kicked on too soon. The winner had the benefit of a recent run behind him that day and has to contend with a 6lb pull in the weights here. I'd be surprised if the selection wasn't up to winning off a mark of 66 based on that effort. The main danger could be Dewdrop, who Ryan Moore rides for Aiden O'Brien, although there are a few who look like they might enjoy the extended trip based on breeding.

Edited April 17, 2016 by mattyrobinson

[mattyrobinson]

Feeling slightly aggrieved with two 2nd places for the day but both were well beaten in fairness (albeit clear of the rest). Glad to see that both managed to reverse form with the market principles as expected. I think most of Aiden's horses will improve for their runs, with Dewdrop an eye-catching 3rd after being forced to make up early ground after a sluggish start. 

Staked: 2

Returned: 0

P/L: -2.00

ROI: -100.00%

 

Monday 18th April

2.40 Pontefract - Terhaal (3/1) 1 pt Win B365

David O'Meara has a good record in this race having won twice in the last 5 runnings, and looks to be in with another good shout here. Terhaal won a 7f maiden as a 2yo (then trained by William Haggas) before switching yards and putting in some decent efforts in soft ground handicaps last winter. Pontefract has a very stiff finish so the fact that he has proven form in testing conditions rates a big plus. There's generally a slight draw bias towards the lower numbers with the inside rail favoured on the run in, although they do occasionally race wide in search of better ground when conditions are testing. Has been touted by his owner as a potential improver this year so clearly they feel that he should improve past his current mark. Looking through the rest of the field, there are a few with slight question marks over getting the trip given the emphasis on stamina here. One that I would look out for in light of that is top weighted Marsh Pride - he looks on a workable mark and has form at up to 10f, though is drawn poorly. Trinity star has a fantastic record over C&D so far, but there are serious question marks over the ground.

I don't normally like to take an early price in a race like this but I'm worried that money might come for this one so I'm willing to play.

 

Probably one or two more for tomorrow to come.

[mattyrobinson]

15.20 Newton Abbot - Dormello Mo (11/10) 1 pt Win B365

Paul Nicholls has hit some real form in the last couple of weeks and his string need to be taken very seriously as he attempts to pip Willie Mullins to the Trainers Championship. This 4-runner race at Newton Abbot looks like a very good chance for him to add another small prize to his total for the year, and he has a fantastic record in the race (won last 2 renewals). Dormello Mo ran a great race when 2nd at Cheltenham lto, narrowly going down to an odds on favourite. His course form at Newton Abbot reads very well (3 wins and 2 places from 6) which is a major plus because the long bends and quick fences can be problematic for some runners there. The extra distance should be fine, and although drier ground probably would have suited him better, he does have proven form on soft as well. Aso looks the main danger, especially if there's more rain overnight, but I fully expect this to be another notch for Nicholls.

[arsenalfh]

The racing at Navan today was a farce. Every single front runner getting an easy lead down the hill so the chasing pack had to go early and had nothing left at the finish. The only way you're winning from the rear is if they go too fast in front which obviously wasn't the case as you can't win using a turn of foot in that tacky ground.

Two good selections but we had no hope with the way the jockeys were riding today, unless you were on the horse at the front of course!

Best of luck with your selections. 

[mattyrobinson]

More frustration after day 2 of the Pony Club. Dormello Mo travelled very well for a long time before fading over the last 4f or so. I'm not sure that he particularly enjoyed the added emphasis on stamina, and he seemed to jump right on more than one occasion, which ultimately cost him any chance I think. The winner (Aso) on the other hand appeared to relish the soft ground and drop in class here, and ran out a deserved winner under a good ride from Aiden Coleman. 

Terhaal was yet another off the post job. Bit of a strange race at Pontefract with a few drawn highly all bolting out of the stalls to lead. Terhaal stuck to the rail and arguably travelled best of all but had to concede first run to Spring Offensive (who was very well backed) which is never easy at Ponty. That rival had the added benefit of hitting better ground on the stand side rail having come wide round the bend by himself. I wouldn't be too disappointed by Terhaal's performance all in all, and given that it was his first run of the season, we can expect him to remain competitive when next seen.

Staked: 4

Returned: 0

P/L: -4.00

ROI: -100.00%

 

Tuesday 19th April

3.20 Wolverhampton - Indira (5/1) 1 pt Win B365

This actually looks quite an interesting race for a Class 5 handicap at Wolves. There is obvious support for market leader Fast Pick following a decisive win for her new trainer lto, but I'm willing to pass over her here. She got a beautiful tow into the race that day and while she did win very decisively in the end, a 9lb rise is hefty enough. Add to the mix that she was sent off 11/1 on the day, and I'm not convinced that we'll see a replica performance here (although I equally wouldn't be too surprised if she won). Instead I'll happily take the 5/1 on offer about Indira. She travelled strongly and stayed on very well to win last time under Josephine Gordon (who rides again this time) and the form of that race has taken a massive boost with the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, all winning next time out. A repeat performance would see her run very close here and the price on offer looks very fair. Atwix is an interesting runner too; she didn't get much luck in running last time and plugged on into 4th, but if she's come on for that run at all then she'd rate a danger too.

 

5.50 Brighton - Cordite (12/1) 1 pt Win B365

There's every chance I have this one worked out completely wrong but I think the early prices have seriously underestimated the chances of Cordite here. A new recruit for Jim Boyle, he makes his debut in a first time hood. You don't have to look too far back, almost a year exactly in fact, to this horse running in big money handicaps off a mark of 102. He runs tomorrow off 85, dropping into Class 4 company for only the second time in his career (winning on the only other occasion). He did put in a few okay runs off slightly higher marks on the A/W last season. While it's possible that he's regressed over the last year, a run to anything near his old self would probably see him win this. Pat Cosgrave has a 10 wins / 31 places from 61 rides at Brighton over the last 3 years, so he knows the course well. Hopefully we can see him outrun his odds here.

 

6.20 Brighton - Eastern Dragon (9/1) 1 pt Win Ladbrokes

Jim Boyle has another lively chance in the following race in the form of 5-timer seeking Giovanni Di Bicci. He has been a revelation with a new headgear combination on the all weather recently and would look to have a good chance if able to transfer that form to turf here. That question alone makes him unbackable for me at the current prices though and instead I'm looking to Eastern Dragon, who looks to have all conditions to suit tomorrow. He's been heavily campaigned over the past few seasons, but he arrives here in good heart having filled the runners-up spot at Wolverhampton last time, and gets in off the same mark here. He seems to have handled the Brighton course well when previously tried here, but more importantly has a great record when there's some cut in the ground. He's won off higher marks in the past, so hopefully he can give a good account of himself tomorrow at a decent price.

[dannkez2407]

love how one of your selections comes up in my system to lay today, either way one of us is going to win haha

[mattyrobinson]

Well a third consecutive day of near misses. Congratulations dannkez - like I said, you could probably make a profit if you simply lay all of my selections! 

Indira ran a really good race to finish a close up 2nd to Fast Pick, having travelled much the better of the two. It looked at one point like Josephine was going to get her there in time but she was perhaps left with a little too much to do late on. Still, an encouraging ride nonetheless and it will be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of it with those two clear of the rest. In the second race, Cordite was given every chance by Pat Cosgrave, turning in a solid performance to finish a close up 4th. He was asked for his challenge from a long way out and plugged on a bit one paced, but it was his first run for 100 days so he'll perhaps come on for the run. The hood seemed to keep him settled in any case. Finally, Eastern Dragon looked to have put the race to bed in the 6.20 at Brighton, but perhaps hit the front slightly too early given the soft ground and was just reeled in to be beaten on the line. Again, satisfied with the efforts from all 3 selections, but still struggling to find that first winner.

For the record, we're now at five 2nds, a 3rd, and a 4th from 7 runners. Brutal...

 

Staked: 7

Returned: 0

P/L: -7.00

ROI: -100.00%

 

Wednesday 20th April

I'll be watching the Derby Trial at Epsom tomorrow with some interest. Claudio Monteverdi is already as short as 14/1 for the main event and won a good looking maiden last time out. The 3rd that day (The Gurkha, also AOB trained) absolutely hacked up in a good race the other day to boost the form somewhat. As a result he's pretty short for this trial, although John Gosden's runner (So Mi Dar) looks interesting and carries an Oaks entry. Perhaps more of a danger though is Hughie Morrison's runner Top Beak, who's maiden win has worked out incredibly well with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th all having won since! Bet365 initially offered 9/1 about him but that has been almost instantly cut to 15/2, which I'm willing to leave under the circumstances. It's hard to know how well any of these runners will handle the Epson course but I guess we'll know a bit more about that tomorrow.

3.05 Epsom - Prendergast Hill (11/2) 1 pt Win B365

This looks a tough race to assess, and I'm again putting an emphasis on course form as simply not all horses handle the bends and undulations of Epsom. One that clearly fits the bill is Leah Freya, who has an imperious record of 3 wins from 4 races at Epsom, with 2 over C&D. She definitely gets the trip, and is 2/2 on soft ground. The main concern though is that she's been hammered at the weights and now races off a much higher mark that her previous wins, and there's a general feeling that the handicapper may have her number now. My selection on the other hand, is very low mileage and open to bags of improvement. He landed a maiden over 10f here on similar ground last season, so should have no problem with the course, and turned in a decent performance when 4th at Kempton on reappearance this season. Kept on strongly under a gentle ride having travelled very well, and I expect that the extra furtlong here will play to his strengths. 

 

[mattyrobinson]

Another for today...

3.15 Perth - Fagan (11/8) 1 pt Win Coral

This will be a really interesting race with Fagan (2nd in the Albert Bartlett) taking on a couple of Willie Mullins runners. I think he's only as long as he is due to the 'Mullins factor' though, and should probably be shorter. Given a break since Cheltenham, he has Richard Johnson taking over the reigns here which can only be a good thing - he has a pretty good record at Perth in any case. Both Mullins runners have shown all of their best form on soft ground, and while that's not to say they won't handle today's conditions, it's certainly a question mark. A repeat of the Albert Bartlett run should see Fagan win here.

Edited April 20, 2016 by mattyrobinson

[dannkez2407]

shame again fella, maybe you should be considering laying these haha

[mattyrobinson]

The first winner must be just around the corner, right...?

Prendergast Hill ran a solid enough race to finish 3rd, while Fagan disappointingly ran no sort of race. Some quality flat racing at Sandown to Mull over today though. Don't have much time to offer much reasoning today unfortunately.

 

Friday 22nd April

1.20 Sandown - Chief Whip (4/1) 1 pt win B365

This looks a cracking opener and most of them are likely to improve from their last runs. I think Ebtihaal looks a decent prospect, but I'd be surprised if he were able to give weight to Von Blucher and Chief Whip. The latter was a little green on debut but quickened up well, and the current prices/proven course form/Ryan Moore effect lead me to side with the Hannon runner.

[mattyrobinson]

1.50 Sandown - Tullius (7/1) 1 pt win B365

2.20 Sandown - Midterm (4/5) 1 pt win B365

2.55 Sandown - Adaay (7/1) 1 pt win B365

3.30 Sandown - Handytalk (13/2) 1 pt win Coral

5.05 Sandown - Stargazer (10/1) 1 pt win B365

 

Unfortunately no reasoning for these but I'll try to summarise my thinking when going through the results later.

[mattyrobinson]

Finally saved by the law of averages and 2 winners on the board!

There were some interesting tactics on show at Sandown today. Chief Whip ran a creditable 3rd in the first race of the day, hitting the front a little too early before tiring and getting pegged back in the final furlong. The eventual winner came from off the pace up the stand side, where there appeared to be better ground.

It was a similar story in the following race, where Western Hymn turned in a bit of a workman-like performance to be beaten by My Dream Boat under a fantastic ride by Adam Kirby. I had reservations about the well being and race fitness of the former prior to the race, and so had plumped for the seemingly very consistent Tullius. My chap ran his race (with typically unnerving high head carriage) but finished well beaten in the end. Again, the eventual winner came from a long way off the pace on the stand side. I don't think there's much question that Western Hymn will come on for the run and I'm sure he'll be back to winning soon enough.

The classic trial looked a proper race and the first two home looked like definite ones to watch this season. Midterm is beautifully bred, and duly proved the hype surrounding him to be well placed. It was a confident ride from Ryan Moore, and although the runner up looked like giving him some serious problems on the run in, I get the feeling that he was fairly in control throughout. Algometer ran an absolute blinder in second, with the front two streets ahead of the others. I had him in my notebook following his maiden win, so it was pleasing to see that he's trained on well over the winter. They both hold Dante and Derby entries so we can look forward to the rematch in due course.

The bet365 Mile was a bizarre race. The pace-setter for Belardo went off at a right clip and had the field really well spread from the off. Ultimately, the majority of the field ended up way too far back turning for home (including Adaay) and the race was fought out by those who raced prominently. Toormore out-battled Dutch Connection to win, with Belardo and Gabriel finishing off well, while never in danger of catching the leaders. Both of the Godolphin runners will probably now go to the Lockinge at Newbury, where I'd expect Belardo to reverse the form (unless the ground comes up quick).

They went very fast in the 5f handicap, where Handytalk was a little out-paced in mid division. He was asked to close the gap a long way from home and ultimately tired much too early. It was a pretty quick time, and I was impressed with the way that Willytheconqueror put the race to bed. 

Finally, Ryan Moore came to the rescue in the final race of the day above Stargazer. The Sir Michael Stoute trained colt was a little unlucky on occasion last year, but clearly enjoyed the extra 2 furlongs he was given today. He managed to reverse the form with Paris Protocol (receiving weight) and won a shade cosily in the end. SMS looks to have his string in good condition at this early stage of the season.

 

Staked: 15

Returned: 12.80

P/L: -2.20

ROI: -14.67%

I should have a bit more time to go through tomorrow's action so I'll be back with some (un)wise words later.

[mattyrobinson]

2.20 Sandown - Ashoka (7/1) 1 pt win B365

Obviously there's a lot of hype around the Mullins/Nicholls battle at Sandown today, and they have the 2 market principles in the opener. Both of their runners are open to plenty of improvement and should be thereabouts at the business end of things but I think there's a bit of value to be had elsewhere. Ashoka represents the Skelton yard here and although was ultimately well beaten by Tommy Silver in a listed race last time, he reopposes with a 18lbs swing in the weights. Interestingly they've reached for cheekpieces which I expect may allow him to settle a little better. The Skeltons have been in fantastic form recently (runs over the last couple of days: 121313222) so I'm hoping that they have him primed for this one.

[mattyrobinson]

4.10 Sandown - Dynaste (28/1) 1 pt win B365

There are a few question marks over Dynaste in the bet365 gold cup but at the current prices he looks worth a small stake. He's been largely disappointing this season following an operation in the winter, but most of his runs have been in hot looking grade 1s. This drop into handicap company might be the let up that he needs, and provided he gets the trip then he's entitled to be very involved at the business end.

[mattyrobinson]

In typical fashion, Ashoka was pulled up by Harry Skelton before the 1st. Not really sure what the problem was but hopefully the horse is okay. It was a competitive looking race and as expected both the Mullins and Nicholls horses went close. They were pipped by Stuart Edmonds trained Wolf of Windlesham, under a very confident ride from Joshua Moore. 

Dynaste ran well for a long way in the bet365 gold cup but failed to see out the trip in the end. It will be interesting to see where they try him next because I think he could be well in if they pitch him into a handicap, and may pop up at a big price. 

 

Staked: 17

Returned: 12.80

P/L: -4.20

ROI: -24.71%

[mattyrobinson]

Monday 25th April

6.40 Naas - Maarek (5/1) 1 pt win Boyle Sports

I fancy Maarek to make amends for his hard luck story in a Group 3 at Newmarket latest to win at Naas tomorrow. He should get his preferred ground, is a former grade 1 winner, and has a terrific record at the course. He has the benefit of race fitness over some of his main market rivals (Fort Del Oro and Moviesta) and the main danger could instead be The Happy Prince who represents the in form O'Brien yard. 

[mattyrobinson]

7.00 Windsor - Nayel (5/1) 1 pt win B365

Nayel, trained by Richard Hannon, is very low mileage for a 4 year-old having suffered with injury problems but improved over 3 runs last year. He's up 4lbs for his most recent handicap win, and although the form of that race isn't exactly rock solid, he remains open to plenty of improvement. The extended lay-off is a bit of a concern, but he's allegedly been working well at home (http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/tips-centre/news/article/13904/10253668/gallops-report-richard-hannon). Otherwise, the race appears to lack much depth with Weetles and Top Diktat perhaps offering the most cause for concern.

[mattyrobinson]

4.50 Ayr - Dolphin Rock (7/2) 1 pt win Betfred

Dolphin Rock was a revelation at the back end of last season once fitted with blinkers, and looks to have a good chance of adding to his trio of wins at Ayr tomorrow. He's up 5lbs for the last of those wins but Richard Ford has his string in great form so far this season and talented amateur Callum Rodriguez looks well worth his 7lb claim. In 2013 he was running off marks in the mid to high 70s so even with some natural regression factored in, you'd expect that he could remain competitive off 63. Ayr is a track that often favours those that race prominently (which I expect him to), and the fact that he has course form is an obvious plus. Pick Your Battle poses an obvious threat having ran a good race on debut for his new yard on the A/W, and gets to race off an unchanged mark here.

[mattyrobinson]

1 NR and two losses...

 

Staked: 20

Returned: 13.80

P/L: -6.20

ROI: -31.00%

[mattyrobinson]

15.40 Punchestown - Pinkie Brown (25/1) 1 pt win PP

I think this 25/1 looks a very generous price on Pinkie Brown in the first at Punchestown tomorrow. Niel Mulholland has a knack of getting his runners primed for these kind of handicaps, as we saw with The Young Master at Sandown. Pinkie Brown has only had the 2 runs for him; winning a maiden first time out, and then running a creditable 5th/9 in a handicap hurdle at Aintree. The 6th has won twice since, so the fact that the handicapper has dropped him 4lbs on the back of that could well turn out to be generous. The form of his previous juvenile hurldle (when trained by Nick Williams) reads well, being only beaten by Leoncavallo (5th in the JCB at Chelts). Although his maiden win was on heavy ground, I have a feeling that a better surface may suit him and he could run well at a big price tomorrow as a result.