Royal Ascot At York - Day 4

[dave]

Won nothing today to put me slightly down for the 3 days, not sure if I'm going tomorrow or Saturday, but probably will given that I'll have nothing else to do all day. Just a quick note on the ground - after being Good (although not officially) on Wednesday, it was back to G-F today, and should remain that way. 4.20 Wolferton Handicap A quality handicap to get stuck into, and hopefully today I will get the draw, having got it very wrong in the final race today. The Draw Day 1, 3.45, 1m - 2/4/7 (10 ran) Day 1, 4.20, 1m - 1/5/2 (10) Day 2, 3.05, 1m - 2/1/6 (8) Day 2, 3.45, 1m 2f 88y - 3/6/5 (8) Day 2, 4.20, 1m - 6/1/3 (22) Day 2, 5.30, 1m - 7/3/4 (14) Day 3, 3.05, 1m 4f - 3/1/9 (9) Day 3, 4.20, 1m - 4/2/11 (22) Day 3, 4,55, 1m 2f 88y - 9/8/5 (9) From that all I can conclude is that I wish this was a 1m handicap, where low numbers have a clear edge. Sadly only one race is run over 1m on Friday, but I'll get on to that later. Back to the draw for 1m 2f 88y. A closer look at the results does actually suggest a bias towards high numbers - Azamour was 11/8f winning from 3. However, this is in races of only 8 and 9 runners. If you take the races with big fields over middle distances this week low numbers have to be favoured. Day 2, 4.20, 1m - 6/1/3 (22) Day 3, 4.20, 1m - 4/2/11 (22) I'm going to concentrate on the single figure stalls. The Pace Firstly, an interesting race today. York showed once again that it favours the front runners with Masta Plasta making all despite a furious pace in today's opener. However I'd prefer to think that that particular horse may turn out to be very special rather than it being impossible to win from behind at York - if any race was set up for the back markers it was that one, yet he still held on. Anyway, on to this one. There is an extreme lack of pace in this one - if nothing forces the pace here we need to look for a horse that has good finishing speed. Of the single figure draws I would remove the following horses because of the lack of finishing pace. Promotion, Imperial Stride, Thyolo and Helm Bank. Of the others, Corriolanus looks to have an impressive turn of foot. Official Ratings and Form The draw and pace filters give a shortlist of :- Dashing Home Difficult to assess, but may have just crept up a bit high based on last couple of flat runs. Can't have confidence, but wouldn't rule out. Mullins Bay Unexposed and improving, but has to prive he can last the trip at this level. Simple Exchange Ran creditably enough on return to action over 7f in Group 3. Likely to come on for that run, and back to preferred distance - has to have a big chance. Corriolanus Very difficult to assess mark of 108, may be too high, but no real evidence that that is the case. Probably lacks the class, but if an outsider pops up this could be the one. Colisay Ran very well last time off 105, and looks to have plenty of ability. Almost always in the frame when conditions suit, and sure to go close again. Selections Simple Exchange Colisay (ew)

[dave]

Re: Royal Ascot At York - Day 4 3.45 Coronation Stakes The Draw The most interesting thing so far about races over 1m has been the draw. Day 1, 3.45, 1m - 2/4/7 (10 ran) Day 1, 4.20, 1m - 1/5/2 (10) Day 2, 3.05, 1m - 2/1/6 (8) Day 2, 4.20, 1m - 6/1/3 (22) Day 2, 5.30, 1m - 7/3/4 (14) Day 3, 4.20, 1m - 4/2/11 (22) From 6 races, all 1st and 2nd place horses have been in the bottom half of the draw. In the 4 races of similar field size 3 have been won by stalls 1 and 2. We have to concentrate on those drawn 1-6. 7-11 look to have way too much to do - not impossible to win, but I can't be betting on Discuss, Love Thirty, Maids Causeway, Mona Lisa or Utterly Heaven doing what no other horse has managed this week. The Pace Discuss is the one that might make the running, but other than that there isn't much obvious pace. Therefore it will be difficult for the two market leaders, Virginia Waters and Damson, to come from off the pace as they like to do. Given that they are also in the marginal stalls of 5 and 6 I have to look elsewhere. The Form A shortlist of Karen's Caper Came close in the 1000 Guineas from the highest draw of all. May be that that wasn't much of a disadvantage, but that was first effort over this trip, and race is sure to be run to suit more here. Cape Columbine Has been beaten narrowly by Karen's Caper in last 2 starts and difficult to make a case for that form being reversed here. Royal Alchemist Likely to be outclassed. Penkenna Princess Ground unlikely to suit. Selection Karen's Caper