Cheltenham Lessons

[Blazing Bailey]

From any big festival, regardless of whether you win or lose, I always think it is worth looking at what you could have done better during the week or if it was simply that good, share it with the rest of us so that we can all earn some more gravy!

My opening lesson this year would to not back any of the Mullins horses antepost (unless its NRNB). I appreciate that it has always been a guessing game with him but this year showed how quick he is to reorganise the pack if a horse has to pull out or their work isn't as good. On the flip side to this, it does mean that money can be made back other trainers horses in the race if they don't turn up.

[arsenalfh]

Cue Card stung me badly. He was my biggest bet of the week and I did a sly ew bet instead of win only thinking there was no way he was finishing out of the top 3 because he is fantastic jumper, Don Cossack might fall under pressure like at Kempton while Smad Place and Don Poli looked held on form. 4/1 ew, even money to place while he was 4/5 on the machine looked a cracking bet and it looked even better when he came tanking down the hill.

A lot of people say that antepost punting is dead but there's still good opportunities. I had 5 antepost bets, got money back on two while the other 3 went off considerably shorter and one actually came home a winner. Take on short priced favourites ew NRNB in races that can cut up and it's hard to go wrong. On the other hand if you fancy the favourites you're better off holding off until the day. Min was available at 3/1 (7/2 small stakes), Annie Power 3/1, Thistlecrack 13/8, Vautour 5/4 etc.

A big mistake I made was deviating from my level stakes staking plan. I often doubled my stakes in the handicaps to 1pt ew when bookies were offering enhanced places but my one bet that placed was 0.5pts ew and my one winner was 0.5pts ew in those races which screwed me badly. I think it's worth increasing stakes at Cheltenham to take adavantage of enhanced prices and lower over rounds but picking what bets to do that in is something I never get right so I should have increased all stakes to 1pt ew or 2pt win. That's something I learned this year.

[Jimmy2shoes]

If's and Buts, could have should have.

Move on Gents, Move on 

Stay clear of Anti Post, bet on the day when they are heading down.

[Jimmy2shoes]

5 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

Cue Card stung me badly. He was my biggest bet of the week and I did a sly ew bet instead of win only thinking there was no way he was finishing out of the top 3 because he is fantastic jumper, Don Cossack might fall under pressure like at Kempton while Smad Place and Don Poli looked held on form. 4/1 ew, even money to place while he was 4/5 on the machine looked a cracking bet and it looked even better when he came tanking down the hill.

A lot of people say that antepost punting is dead but there's still good opportunities. I had 5 antepost bets, got money back on two while the other 3 went off considerably shorter and one actually came home a winner. Take on short priced favourites ew NRNB in races that can cut up and it's hard to go wrong. On the other hand if you fancy the favourites you're better off holding off until the day. Min was available at 3/1 (7/2 small stakes), Annie Power 3/1, Thistlecrack 13/8, Vautour 5/4 etc.

A big mistake I made was deviating from my level stakes staking plan. I often doubled my stakes in the handicaps to 1pt ew when bookies were offering enhanced places but my one bet that placed was 0.5pts ew and my one winner was 0.5pts ew in those races which screwed me badly. I think it's worth increasing stakes at Cheltenham to take adavantage of enhanced prices and lower over rounds but picking what bets to do that in is something I never get right so I should have increased all stakes to 1pt ew or 2pt win. That's something I learned this year.

The Anti Post lesson is either a short sharp shock lesson, or a very long dragged out lesson.

ANY anti post bet is THREE separate gambles, the FIRST gamble is ANYTHING can happen to the animal before the race, the SECOND part to the gamble is something a lot of punters simply overlook, The Going! The third part after those two is the horse turning up and WINNING!

So ANY anti post bet comes really in three parts, Health of horse, Going, then Winning.

 

Bookmakers love anti post because they could own your money before the the festival has even started and that was the case with Anne Power and Faugheen and Vautour 

 

I have a bathroom cupboard full of finger burn cream along with many many old void betting slips, every punter will always learn on their own terms so these words are probably worthless and a waste of time, but take it from experience, anti post bets are BONKERS mental.

Take the short cut lesson, not the long route. 

Edited March 19, 2016 by Jimmy2shoes

[Blazing Bailey]

Good points there regarding prices on the day for the shorties. They always do drift, even on weeks like this where the bookies took a bashing, they were still trying to drift the shorties.

Jimmy is right about AP but still cant help myself!

[richard-westwood]

Yeah ..have to admit i love getting a big price but ive been burned a few times in recent weeks and had enough now ....ill wait til night before or nrnb ....and yes mullins horses have become unbackable now ....he and other trainers had numerous horses entered for 3-4 races ....what can you do with that ??....makes life very difficult from a punting perspective unless as was stated above you use it to your  advantage and try and speculate where he wont run and youll prob get a better price on another horse....but chelt fest will always be a minefield ...its fab to watch but no matter how much reparation you have or form lines you read ...everyone  is there to win so your left scratching your head half the time ....just a funny  ol game 

[Blazing Bailey]

I'm also going to add for me personally is to not be afraid to back a handful in a big handicap. The 3 handicap winners on the Friday were all the 4th horse on my list but I was conscious about how much I spent and therefore only backed 3. I did the same thing in the Betfair and the Ladbroke so even if it means dropping the stakes a little, make sure you cover your arse... or even better yet, just get the winner in the first 3 anyway!

[richard-westwood]

59 minutes ago, Blazing Bailey said:

I'm also going to add for me personally is to not be afraid to back a handful in a big handicap. The 3 handicap winners on the Friday were all the 4th horse on my list but I was conscious about how much I spent and therefore only backed 3. I did the same thing in the Betfair and the Ladbroke so even if it means dropping the stakes a little, make sure you cover your arse... or even better yet, just get the winner in the first 3 anyway!

Yeah..same for me ..i always try and work out the best percentage of a return to stake ....so if ive narrowed a 24 horse race to 6 horses id want to back 3 unless the prices were all big then it might even be feasible backing six 1 pt wins if they were all 20/1+......i dont care what people think ...as some frown and only back one horse but if you get the winner and the coffers fill then thats the name of the game however you did it !!

[arsenalfh]

3 hours ago, Blazing Bailey said:

I'm also going to add for me personally is to not be afraid to back a handful in a big handicap. The 3 handicap winners on the Friday were all the 4th horse on my list but I was conscious about how much I spent and therefore only backed 3. I did the same thing in the Betfair and the Ladbroke so even if it means dropping the stakes a little, make sure you cover your arse... or even better yet, just get the winner in the first 3 anyway!

Also when you're getting enhanced places you nearly always beat the BSP on the place part of each way bets. That's another reason why you shouldn't be afraid to back a few in a big handicap as you can get good value on the place part of the bet as some cover.