Ultima Handicap Chase - Tuesday 15th

[BillyHills]

Ultima Handicap Chase

[BillyHills]

Preview

Verdict:

A cracking renewal especially if Sausalito Sunrise lines up with his welter burden. The Hobbs team have a good team here with both Kruzhlinin and Fingal Bay as well. I have a sneaky feeling that The Young Master will run a big race for the Waley-Cohen’s. They are a lucky group of connections and he ran well enough last time to suggest he’s well enough handicapped. I could pick half a dozen here but my alternative selection is for Un Temps Pour Tout. I just think he’s been lined up for a big handicap and has a lovely weight here. Of the rest I like Holywell and Doctor Harper in a fascinating handicap.

 

Selections

The Young Master 14/1 Betfred

Un Temps Pour Tout 20/1 Bet365

 

[richard-westwood]

Just finished rating this as best i can ...no guarntee of runners at this stage but some fantastic prices on offer as a result so ill chance it 

out sam.  98.97

silvergrove. 98.92

a good skin 98.92 

thomas brown. 98.88

out sam is top rated and fav so warrants serious respect ..at 11.0 on betfair he looks a good bet 

the others are lower in the weights and theres no guarntee they will getin but at 65.0 ..65.0 and 105.0 illchance it

out sam 6 ptswin 11.0 betfair

a good skin 2 pts win 105.0 betfair

thomas brown 2 pts win 65.0 betfair

silvergrove 2 pts win 65.0 betfair

[richard-westwood]

18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Just finished rating this as best i can ...no guarntee of runners at this stage but some fantastic prices on offer as a result so ill chance it 

out sam.  98.97

silvergrove. 98.92

a good skin 98.92 

thomas brown. 98.88

out sam is top rated and fav so warrants serious respect ..at 11.0 on betfair he looks a good bet 

the others are lower in the weights and theres no guarntee they will getin but at 65.0 ..65.0 and 105.0 illchance it

out sam 6 ptswin 11.0 betfair

a good skin 2 pts win 105.0 betfair

thomas brown 2 pts win 65.0 betfair

silvergrove 2 pts win 65.0 betfair

That a a complete bummer none of them will get in at mo .......nightmare these hcaps are sometimes .....still a chance but not looking good out sam was fav too !,,

I'll try beg to differ 5 pts ew 20/1 will hill 

Edited March 10, 2016 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

New full rating 

Out sam  98.97

Beg to differ  98.92

Indian castle  98.88

Band of blood  98.88 

Well I'm over the moon that out sam got in ...I've no idea how he did cos he was about tenth reserve but the 11.0 I got looks very good now !!.....Beg to differ is looking nicely weighted and if he's good enough could run very well ....I do love these big hcaps ....prices are fab and its a great opportunity to land a huge priced winner and if your lucky you can pay for chelt in one race sometimes then just enjoy the rest of the festival .....with that in mind I'm going to strengthen my hand in this race with the third and fourth rated too as there's 24 runners I want the best shot possible at getting a first day big win priced at 33/1 and 50/1 they are also fab value and worthy a punt in a wide open race 

Out sam  already backed  6 Pts at 11.0 

Beg to differ already backed  5 Pts ew 20/1 

Indian castle  3 pts win 34.0 bet fair 

Band of blood 2 pts win 52.0 bet fair 

Edited March 14, 2016 by richard-westwood

[beaker1]

2.50 Cheltenham – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The fact that all 15 winners since the turn of the millennium registered their best RPR over at least 2m7 ½f shows that we need a horse that will stay the trip in what usually turns out to be a fast-paced affair for a 3m+ chase. Only five of this year’s line-up haven’t achieved their best RPR over this trip which is a bad omen for the likes of Shanahan’s Turn and Band Of Blood.

The first place to look in most Graded races is for a last time out winner and, surprisingly, the same can be said about this race. 7 of the last 13 renewals have been won by a horse with a ‘1’ next to their name which bodes well for the five that applies to in the field here, Kruzhlinin, Out Sam, Theatre Guide, Carole’s Destrier and Beg To Differ.

This is one of the strongest races at The Festival for horses sporting headgear with each of last four winners wearing some kind of aid. It shouldn’t be seen as a negative that a horse doesn’t go to post with one accompaniment or another but just don’t be put off by a runner that usually sports some kind of headgear.
Jonjo O’Neill is one of the top trainers of staying handicap chasers and he is the man to follow in this race especially. He has trained 3 of the last 7 winners and is doubly represented this time round with Beg To Differ and the 2014 winner Holywell.

In contrast, Paul Nicholls has an unenviable record of 0/18. He has had three third-places courtesy of Ad Hoc (twice) and Royal Auclair but that certainly puts a dent in the chances of Southfield Theatre.

Despite the rigours of this stern stamina test, novices and second season chasers have had a better record than expected. 12 of the last 15 winners fell into this bracket and 7 of the last 10 winners had less than 10 runs over fences. It seems that the more unexposed types sneak into this race while ahead of the assessor so it is best to concentrate on those with this kind of profile. Fancied runners, Holywell, Theatre Guide and Kruzhlinin fall foul of this trend.

Being one of the stronger races of the week for Festival form, a previous winner cannot be ignored. 2 of the last 7 winners had won at The Festival before and of this year’s field, only Holywell, who won this in 2014, and Spring Heeled, 2014 Kim Muir winner, have enjoyed Festival success previously which gives them a leg up on their rivals here.

There is a common misconception that handicaps are a lottery and are won by big prices. This is true in some cases but certainly not here with 11 of the last 15 winners being found in the top four in the betting. At the time of writing, Out Sam heads the market from Holywell and Kruzhlinin with Morning Assembly, Carole’s Destrier and The Young Master close in behind.

Tactics in handicaps differ from race to race but there is a strong trend here for those to have been held-up or raced in mid-field. As mentioned previously, they tend to set off at a fair lick for a 3m1f chase so that obviously lends itself to those who have conserved that extra bit of energy as they turn into the straight.

This is perennially one of the most exciting races of the season and this season’s renewal looks ultra-competitive so should be no different.

Beg To Differ comes out on top of the trends and will extend Jonjo O’Neill’s already stellar record to 4 wins in 8 years if he does prevail. He was steadily progressive over hurdles last campaign and has started to find his feet over fences, landing the odds at Sandown last month in fine style. However, his jumping did leave a bit to be desired that day and he will need to iron out those errors to play a leading role here. If he continues his upward curve, he will be entitled to figure but he does look the stable second string.

Jonjo’s apparent first string is Holywell who landed this back in 2014. When he readily accounted for Don Cossack in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase a month later, he looked to be one of the premier staying chasers but he never really kicked out on from that point although did run a couple of good races when in the frame in both the Gold Cup and Betfred Bowl. His recent form does look concerning but he always runs his best races in the spring and has been dropped a handy 6lb by the handicapper. The fact that he has won two races at The Festival before is a massive positive and if he is in anything like the form he has shown here previously, he could well be a class above the rest of the field.

Neil Mulholland is a trainer that has been making waves and his pair here must be respected on the back of his win with The Druids Nephew last year. Carole’s Destrier is the more interesting of the two and he rarely runs a bad race. Mulholland skipped The Festival with him last year in favour of a crack at Aintree, where he was sent off a well-backed 4/1 second favourite to Saphir Du Rheu in the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices’ Chase. He was well beaten, possibly feeling the effects of a long season but lost little caste in defeat. He had an ok pipe-opener in the Badger Ales Trophy where he finished fifth but was quietly impressive when winning the London National at Sandown. On that evidence, he looks to stay all day which will undoubtedly hold him in good stead here.

His stablemate, The Young Master, is probably the better renowned of the two having created quite an impression last season, landing the Silver Cup at Ascot in fine style. He was pitched in at the deep end at last year’s Festival in the RSA and has had some similarly tough assignments since. He was well fancied in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup only to unseat at the first and ran with credit when fourth behind the highly progressive Wakanda next time out. His latest spin over hurdles can be ignored and he could still be a young chaser ahead of his mark.

The real talking horse in the last few weeks has been Out Sam. The young chaser has improved markedly for the switch to fences and was though of highly enough to contest a Grade 2 on only his second chasing start. He is not only a strong trends pick, but he has very solid form in the book as well. He easily defeated Milansbar in a three-runner novice event at Newbury, who has since gone on to land a handicap in decent fashion and now holds a rating of 145. Factor in that Warren Greatrex’s charge was giving the runner-up 4lb, 139 now looks to be a very lenient mark.

Shortlist

Beg To Differ

Holywell

Carole’s Destrier

The Young Master

Out Sam

[arsenalfh]

Out Sam looks thrown in here off 139 after beating a 142 rated horse who now has a mark of 145 with ease last time out but in general I'm not mad on lightly raced novices with little experience in these races. Holywell also could be thrown in but he has shown nothing this season so he might not be the same horse and looks very short. I reckon Audacious Plan is well handicapped although I believe he wants further so my strong fancy in this is Regal Encore.

He went off favourite for the Pertemps last year and ran a good race to finish 7th before running a great race when staying on to finish a length off the winner at Aintree. He's been running off the pace over trips too short for him on bad ground all season and has dropped to a mark of 3lbs lower than his hurdles mark. Jumping has been an issue but he looked very good when he put it together a Plumpton over the winter and interestingly there's a 60k bonus for him if he wins today off the back of that win. Geraghty rode him as the 2nd string last time which was also interesting and if the better ground helps his jumping he looks well handicapped. You can be sure he'll be trying today especially as he is McManus' only runner and looks a fascinating contender.

Regal Encore e/w @ 28/1 - Bet365

[Blazing Bailey]

I dont really have a massive amount to add to this race however I have had bets on Outsam, The Young Master and Ballykan.

Outsam is arguably the best handicapped horse in the race and therefore I couldnt not have an interest in him and I am a little amazed by the mark he was given after his LTO win, especially since the form has been franked. Greatrex is very confident that he will improve for the day albeit I do have a concern over whether the hustle and bustle of this race will be ok for him given he hasnt experienced anything like this before. Given how well handicapped he is I think he is worth a chance but he is by no means a certainty.

The Young Master follows The Druids Nephew path for Neil Mulholland and that in itself would appear to be a clue. Im not a fan of his jockey against the pro's however he is still a handicapper on the up and I think his mark has been looked after.

Lastly Ballykan is one I was undecided on but the price took me in. He won a couple of decent races in the Autumn before disappointing in what turned out to be a very good race at Newcastle. My interest comes from his last time out run in the Betbright where he was one of the only horses to make the running and finish respectably with the principals coming from off the pace. I think running up with the pace can be beneficial in these big fields and while he might not quite be well enough handicapped to win, I can see him running a really bold race and is worth an EW play.

[arsenalfh]

Plot horses 1st and 2nd. 

[BillyHills]

On 9 March 2016 at 16:52:32, BillyHills said:

Preview

 

Selections

The Young Master 14/1 Betfred

Un Temps Pour Tout 20/1 Bet365

 

Happy with that

[arsenalfh]

3 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Happy with that

You're on fire at the moment. Great stuff!