Queen Mother Champion Chase - Wednesday 16th

[Aidymac]

TRENDS

Only 6 favourites have won in the last 17 years.

12 of the last 15 winners have started at 5/1 or less.

21 of the last 29 winners had been placed at the Festival in the past.

All bar one of the last 13 Arkle winners went on to be placed in this race the following year.

 

VERDICT

I am not usually one for backing odds on shots but Un De Sceaux looks a cut above all of his rivals in this years' renewal of the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Mullins said the horse was nowhere near 100% in the Clarence House last time out where he beat Sire De Grugy by 5 lengths and that is frightening if that is the case. He does have to brush up on his jumping though which is my only concern.

He took a real liking to this course in last years' Arkle and actually jumped really well that day, going on to beat God's Own by 6 lengths at his absolute leisure. Sprinter Sacre is not the force of old and is shoving on in years whilst the same can be said for Sire De Grugy who hasn't looked all that since winning this race two years ago. Dodging Bullets also hasn't had a prep run so everything is in place for the Mullins banker to bolt up here.

 

Back Un De Sceaux @ 4/5 Betfred

 

Full Preview --> http://www.thecheltenhamfestival.net/festival-day-2/queen-mother-champion-chase-tip-2016020802

[Blazing Bailey]

Champion Chase (prices from BET365 - The prices are a few days old)

The only threat I can see to Un De Sceaux is the fences. He jumps really well on the whole but given how quickly he travels and how aggressively he jumps, it doesn’t take a great deal to send him tumbling. There was a small question mark over how much he had over the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy but he showed that it was quite a lot when he beat the latter at Ascot. When you then consider that Special Tiara and Traffic Fluide both have similar form lines to SDG as well it really does seem to be a race that we need to find the 2^nd and 3^rd and I do think that it will come from the horses already mentioned meaning that I need to look at the w/out market as the odds are short enough already. Dodging Bullets could also make his mark however he has enough questions to answer from a year off and also off the back of the worst Champion Chase win in many a year.

 

Sprinter Sacre 5/2

Sire De Grugy 6/1

Special Tiara 7/1

Traffic Fluide 7/1

 

My immediate thoughts are that SDG will be worse off with ST, SS and TF due to the likely good to soft ground because SDG is at his best on deeper whereas all of the others are at their best on better ground. Im not sure that ST is going to be at his best around Cheltenham as upon reflection he should have won this race last season but he couldn’t find enough at the business end and with UDS to keep him company up front I think that will put paid to his chances. TF is an interesting one and also falls into a form line with Sizing Granite who seems to have gone off the rails and Gods Own who in fairness ran a stormer last year behind UDS. The Ryannair is being flirted with by TF connections so that puts me off at this stage but he looks an improved horse this year and by all accounts he will come on a tonne for his re-appearance. He would probably be my idea of a bet at this stage in the without market given the prices. I will also drop Gods Own into this conversation as the more I look at him the more I think he could be an interesting EW contender assuming the ground stays on the good side.

 

Good to soft or better:

1. Un De Sceaux

2. Traffic Fluide

3. Gods Own

 

Soft or worse:

1. Un De Sceaux

2. Sire De Grugy

3. Sprinter Sacre

 

As a further note on this one, the front running battle between UDS and Special Tiara could have an interesting impact on how the race develops because it will be the first time anything will have tried to get upsides UDS and we simply dont know whether that will have an effect on the horses performance. I don't think it will have an effect however UDS is a short price and its an angle to use to help take him on if you are looking for one.