Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate - Thursday 17th

[BillyHills]

Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Plate

[BillyHills]

Preview

Verdict:

Johns Spirit looks very dangerous now he’s back down to a winnable mark. He loves Cheltenham and his trainer makes a habit of winning Festival handicaps. He’s just too short for me and as this race often throws up big outsiders I’m going for a couple of long shots here. First I like Niceonefrankie for Venetia Williams. She won this with 50/1 Carrickboy a couple of years ago so has the form to do it. An alternative would be the Pipe horse La Vaticane. Another yard who always target this race and the horse just seems to be improving at the right time. Lower down the weights I think Ericht is in with an each way shout.

Selections:

Niceonefrankie EW 33/1 Bet365

La Vaticane EW 25/1 Paddy Power

[beaker1]

It seems that in the world of trends, something odd is happening here. There are three horses that match nine of the ten key trends – Fingal Bay, Tenor Nivernais and Quincy Des Pictons. Now the first two are perfectly plausible winners of the race, especially Philip Hobbs’ chaser, but the final table topper, the twelve-year-old Quincy Des Pictons is currently 100/1 in some places. He’s shown close to nothing at all since his last win (over Renard and Deputy Dan) on heavy ground at Chepstow in December 2014 and was last seen being beaten twelve lengths over hurdles by the now 117-rated Tanit River. Clearly, this is not an improving horse, he’s not a horse with any good recent form on a sound surface and this one looks to be a clear anomaly, or it would be one of the Festival’s biggest ever shocks.

Now that’s out of the way, even though many trainers target horses at races like these, it’s interesting to see that it really is the under-the-radar contenders that make the biggest splash, with only one of the last 15 winners of the race being in the top four in the market or any smaller than 12/1. This is a black mark against the ante post gamble of the race Johns Spirit, Stilletto, Fingal Bay and Art Mauresque, even though the last three mentioned can all be found at 12/1 and above at the time of writing.

Horses trained by the Pipe family or Venetia Williams have combined to win six of the last ten runnings of this race, an unbelievable record which has to be taken notice of. David Pipe has three in the race this year: Kings Palace, Ballynagour and La Vaticane, while Williams has Dare Me, Niceonefrankie, Tenor Nivernais and Tango De Juilley declared – plenty of bullets to keep their fine record going.

All of the last seven winners of the race have carries less than 11-00 and ten horses fall foul of carrying more here, however, there is still the impact of the claiming jockey to consider and seeing that Venetia Williams’ Niceonefrankie has Charlie Deutsch taking 5lb off the horse’s back is an interesting nugget indeed. He was allotted 11-00 anyway, so he wasn’t far off satisfying the trend and even with the possibly unfair black mark in this box, he’s only two ticks behind the top three.

He’s a horse that is ridden prominently, which is another positive, considering nine of the last ten winners have all been prominently raced at the very least. It’s always difficult to come from the back in competitive, often messy encounters like these and it’s no surprise that prominently positioned horses do well. I’d be wary of horses with hold-up styles like Johns Spirit and Ballynagour, even though the latter wasn’t close to the front when winning this two years ago.

Only one of the last eleven winners won on their last start, so the likes of La Vaticane, Dare Me and Stilletto take a hit here, while there hasn’t been an Irish-trained winner since 1982, so Buckers Bridge, Ballycasey, Empire Of Dirt and Baily Green would have to shake off the weight of the record books if they were going to win here.

To be perfectly honest, this is a race that has been as close to a ‘lottery’ as you can get at the Festival; it’s hugely unpredictable and could be an excellent opportunity to look for something at a big price with the ability to get involved from a decent-looking mark.

Fingal Bay runs off a mark of 141 here and with Richard Johnson on board cannot be overlooked. He tops the trends table and his form could be argued as some of the very best in the race, with a win in last year’s Pertemps Final and, after chasing a strong pace in soft ground, a good fourth place in this year’s Hennessy standing out. He looks an extremely solid proposition and could still be a decent price at 12/1. The only worries are if the trip is a little short for him at 2m5f and if (probably when) he gets latched on to in the market. The poor record of fancied horses is unsettling, but he looks set to be popular on the day and should run a good race.

Paul Nicholls’ Stilletto draws the eye off a relatively low weight and could be well-handicapped, while Art Mauresque is a contender with a decent chance, especially now the ground is coming right for him – the quicker the better. He also has some good track form, including a very good sixth in the Paddy Power in November, so he certainly doesn’t have a lot to find off a mark of 144.

Venetia Williams’ four in the race are all interesting in their own way, with Tango De Juilley looking to have plenty of ability and is now being ridden by talented claimer Jack Kennedy, Tenor Nivernais carrying plenty of weight but having Aidan Coleman on board to try and continue his excellent C&D form and Dare Me bouncing back to form in a big way at Ascot last time out.

However it is her ten-year-old Niceonefrankie that catches my attention most. He’s often saved for better ground and in placing a good second in unsuitable soft-ground at Warwick – to a very good horse in Taquin De Seuil too – after almost three months off; he proved his wellbeing and could be a great bet at around 20/1 given he’s not been harshly campaigned with  this race in mind. Fingal Bay and Art Mauresque could be the ones to chase him home, while Stilletto was targeted at this race as soon as he won at Leicester last time out, if not before, and holds claims.

Shortlist

Niceonefrankie

Fingal Bay

Art Mauresque

[Blazing Bailey]

I think I have a couple of interesting bigger priced fancies in this, albeit one appears more interesting than the other as the gents above have also written about him.

Niceonefrankie has form over the trip, ground and class. After winning the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup here he ran flat at Ascot the following month and subsequently didnt run again that season. He was well backed when he ran a stinker at Newbury at a time when a lot of Venetia's horses were very in and out. He was again off until last month where he ran well behind a rejuvinated and well handicapped rival who now goes to the Ryanair. He is well treated off just 3lb higher for that C&D win and as conditions look right up his street I can see him out running his odds.

 

The other horse I have my eye on, especially in the Betfair markets, is Bears Affair. Again conditions will be perfect and he ran a big race here last season in the Coral Cup off a big weight. He isnt quite as good over fences and his mark is lower as a result and in truth he seems to be at his best on flatter tracks such as Aintree (over fences) but I think he will enjoy a good test at this trip (previous wins over further in chases). When you look at his last 5 chase starts it includes two runs over too far at Uttoxeter, two wins at Aintree and a PU on soft ground. I dont think he is fully exposed under these circumstances and whilst winning may be one step too far I can see him running into a place. At the moment he is around 60's on Betfair for the win and around 10s for a place in the top 4.

[arsenalfh]

Looks a cracking race. Very competitive. John's Spirit is a clear plot for this and should go well finally getting his ground but looks no price. Ballynagour and La Vaticane are the ones that interest me most at the moment but Nicholls reckons Art Mauresque needed the run the last day and he's been crying out for decent ground all season. His win over Double Shuffle reads well as does his 6th in the Paddy Power on ground which was softer than advertised so he's another to consider.

[richard-westwood]

Cracker of a race .....but impossible to predict ...niceonefrankie could run a big race so as fingal bay ....,at big odds sew on target seemed to show improved form last time and although penalised might be still competitive if he's found his form ....38.0 bet fair looks fair value ....also astracad is one of those horses that pop's up from time to time and his ideal conditions are good and he has that today and jockeys claim puts him on nice mark ...unreliable as runs stinkers but on a good day his 50/1 would look huge 

Sew on target   5 Pts win 38.0 5vpts place 

Astracad  5 Pts ew 50/1v bet365

[arsenalfh]

15 hours ago, arsenalfh said:

Looks a cracking race. Very competitive. John's Spirit is a clear plot for this and should go well finally getting his ground but looks no price. Ballynagour and La Vaticane are the ones that interest me most at the moment but Nicholls reckons Art Mauresque needed the run the last day and he's been crying out for decent ground all season. His win over Double Shuffle reads well as does his 6th in the Paddy Power on ground which was softer than advertised so he's another to consider.

Bit late posting this but I've been thoroughly enjoying today's racing. Ballynagour won this two years ago and showed he still has bags of ability when finishing a 4L 2nd to Cue Card on his reappearance. Before that he was beaten a head by Silviniaco Conti at Aintree and travelling well when falling in the Punchestown Gold Cup. He's well in on his previous form and I think the good ground will help him return to form. David Noonan takes off a very valuable 5lbs as I have mentioned before.

Unfortunately La Vaticane doesn't run but I'll back Art Mauresque for the same reasons as above.

Ballynagour e/w @ 22/1 - Bet365

Art Mauresque e/w @ 14/1 - Bet365

[BillyHills]

Shame about my tip Niceonefrankie who was put down after breaking his leg.

Feel for connections.