Introduction to Monitoring Probability Strategy

[greenbets]

The basic concept is quite simple, succinctly explained, the longer an outcome does not happen, the closer is to occur.

 

Explanation of the basics of the system with a practical example

Ideally speaking in a toss coin the probability of getting heads or tails is 50%, this is what in the method we call Initial Probability (IP), if we make a roll and get heads, what is more likely to come out on second roll? And in the third, fourth or fifth roll? if we roll the coin five times and has appeared five times the heads, then we say that the probability of tails have a DELAY of five consecutive times.

You may think that every time you make a roll there is no connection between them, but what if I tell you that's not true, it is not possible that with that initial probability (IP) happens more than 12 times in a row the same choice?

EXPLANATION OF THE MONITORING PROBABILITY (MP)

Let's see how it works from an initial probability (IP) 50%:
In the first roll the probability is the same as the initial probability, that is, 50%
In the second, applying the formula for the calculation of the MP would be 75%
87.5 for the third
93.75 in the fourth
96.87 ...
98.43 ...
99.21 ...
When it exceeds 99.50 it gets interesting, from this point is when we would enter to bet
99.60
99.80
99.90
99.95
99.97
99.98
99.99 At this point the actual probability of success is situated in 97%

In short, there are three basic concepts

1-IP, pure chance that a result occur, for example Chelsea wins 55 percent of Matches

2-DELAY, number of consecutives delays that a result is not happening

3-MP monitoring probability, numerical relationship between IP and DELAY

 

But how you can apply this system to sports betting? Surely you be thinking that in football there are many others factors that do not correspond to pure chance, then see real data from your favorite teams:

• Chelsea wins, we see that IP is 55%, see what has been the historical high of Manchester City has been without winning (DELAY): 7 times
• Another example, over 2.5 in Chelsea matches, their IP is 58%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 6
• Manchester City score exactly 1 goal, IP is 25%, the maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened is 21
• Leicester score at least one goal, IP 81%, maximum number of consecutives times that has not happened 5

 

As you can see there is a direct relationship between the initial probability (IP) and the maximum number of DELAYS that can reach, so we can get to play at the right time, knowing that the greater the MP the nearer this one result is to occur.

 

I opened a new forum post in which I will put monitorings weekly, so you can judge for yourself the validity of the system: https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/153287-challange-monitoring-probability-strategy/

Edited February 26, 2016 by greenbets

[greenbets]

How the MPS works?

The key is the relationship between any probability and the number of arrears/delays that has not happened (MP).  In any game of chance (including life), Normal is usually equilibrium, when that balance is broken we call it streak statistics, usually the higher is the initial probability of an event, the faster the streak breaks and everything returns to normality.

The system is able to relate the initial probability of something with the number of times that takes without occur,  achieving a useful approximation to determine the moment/time when the streak is going to broke

How far do you want to go?

As I mentioned in the previous article there is a relationship between the initial probability and the maximum number that can reach a statistical streak,  You can find a MP calculator in my blog, so you can see how many times can be extended in time a streak according to its initial probability until reach MP 99.99
As you see the higher IP, the faster streak is broken, the method works well from an IP at least 25-30%, lower than it takes too long until we reach MP 99.99 always starting the monitoring when MP is bigger than 99,50, although it is true that the odds will be higher, perhaps it may be worth playing 20% as minimun sometimes...
For higher IP  odds are lower, but we are confident it will quickly fulfilled, these can be exploited playing ‘live betting’ waiting until they rise.

…Soon more information about how to make the most of the strategy…