Cheltenham Gold Cup 2016

[Aidymac]

VERDICT

This is a very tough race to call but I have to stick to my guns and I firmly believe CUE CARD (13/2, Paddy Power)is the horse to be on for the Gold Cup this year. The Colin Tizzard trained 10 year old will collect £1Million if he lands this race due to his victories in the King George and Betfair Chase also. He started the season off by beating Dynaste in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby before going on to destroy Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He proved to us all that his wins were no fluke when he battled hard to outstay Vautour in the King George. Willie Mullins has three very live contenders but the prolific Irish trainer has never won this race which is quite amazing. I think the main danger is Don Poli but I am backing the Tizzard's to land that massive £1MILLION Bonus!

 

Back Cue Card HERE @ 13/2 Paddy Power

 

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[Blazing Bailey]

This was written a while back so the odds are probably a little out and it looks like Road to Riches is going elsewhere but my fancies remain the same.

 

Vautour 4

Don Cossack 9/2

Djakadam 5/1

Don Poli 6/1

Cue Card 6/1

Road to Riches 12/1

Smad Place 12/1

 

I have left the market to these runners as I believe these are the only horses who have a serious chance of winning. Unlike some of the other championship races at the festival there isn’t a short priced favourite so I will be looking to back the winner outright.

It’s hard to work out whether Vautour did or didn’t stay in the King George when Cue Card pipped him at the line. I personally don’t think it was stamina that did for him that day, however, I still can’t be confident that he will stay the Gold Cup trip. Given his price and given that it’s a big and important doubt, I will probably avoid him at this stage but going left handed, and being back at Cheltenham are both massive pluses for this horse and he has always been below par before producing a spectacular display on the big day so I certainly wouldn’t want to be laying him at current prices either. The biggest question mark over him at this stage is whether he goes to this race. He would p*** up in the Ryanair but connections seem intent on running in the flagship event.

Cue Card has been spectacular this season and he would be a crowd favourite were he to win here. I think this horse is a little overlooked in this market and I can’t see any reason as to why he wouldn’t be in the mix coming to the last.

Don Cossack was an unlucky faller in the Kind George and would have gone very close or more or less even won had he not gone down. Again I cannot see anything that would put me off him. He jumps well enough on the whole, travels well and finds. Ground won’t be an issue the price seems fair as well.

Djakadam now has to have a little question mark over him. I don’t like backing horses after a fall in general but especially not over the same C&D and even more so when they pick up a nasty (albeit superficial) injury. Before that fall there was no reason why he couldn’t win but now there is enough doubt for me to leave him alone.

Don Poli is a lovable rogue. A bit like Big Bucks before him, he just does enough to win the race and no more. His currently level of form needs to be stepped up on to make him the winner of this race but that is entirely possible given his age and the way he races. Smad Place will give him a target to aim at and I think that is a challenge he will relish. He jumps well and will stay the trip twice.

Road to Riches was third in this race last year however his participation in this year’s contest is still in doubt as the Ryanair is also under consideration. Last season, the softening ground was probably against him whereas it was a bonus to the winner and second and on the better ground I could have seen him reverse that form (albeit I am pocket talking here!). Unfortunately I don’t think he will go down the Gold Cup route but on good ground he would have a great chance and there certainly shouldn’t be a 7pt difference between him and Djakadam.

Finally Smad Place announced himself on the scene this weekend, dispatching Many Clouds on softer ground that ideal. I can see this form being overlooked but I think it looks very favourable to him and given how Coneygree won the race last year, you could see Smad Place doing a similar thing. I suspect he may fall just short but he is a different horse when going from the front and he will put Vautour under pressure all the way. I could see him being a win to nothing horse in that he will even win or fall out of the back of your telly.

Good to soft or better

1. Don Cossack

2. Cue Card

3. Road to Riches

Soft or worse

1. Don Cossack

2. Cue Card

3. Don Poli