Goal Supremacy

[barker8]

Hey guys,

First time post so bear with me! Trying to get my head around Goal Supremacy and working out my own odds but they seem a little 'off'. I'm sure this is normal until I figure out a way that works for me, but initial calculations are throwing me off a bit. I'm looking at a site that has a post on compiling odds (probably not best to post that here, or can I?).

I worked out some calculations for tonight's game in the Championship. So I have the following data:

(Goals For Leeds average 0.9666 + Boro Against average 0.5517) / 2 = 0.7592
(Goals For Boro average 1.3448 + Leeds Against average 1.133) / 2 = 1.2389

So that gives a Total Goals of 1.9981.
And a Supremacy of (0.7592 - 1.2389 + 0.4) -0.08

Compiler Odds

Home 3.07
Draw 3.24
Away 2.73

Under 2.5 1.47
Over 2.5 3.09

Actual Betfair Odds

Home 4.10
Draw 3.35
Away 2.16

Under 2.5 1.61
Over 2.5 2.62

 

Reason for the compiler odds being so far off?

 

Thanks guys, appreciate any replies.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL Barker8.