Wednesday racing 10th feb

[richard-westwood]

Rating another race ...this is quite fun actually ...doesnt take long 

755 kemp 

1   65 64 83  212

2 70  68  87  225

3 67 84 84  235 

4 70 80 83  233 

Rest are poor so these three above are the ones to focus on .   

Secret insider (2)..is 11/8 fav .....he beat sir dudley (3)4 lengths lto but that one is 8 lbs better and 14/1 ????....horse 4 represents hannon (boycie)so has to be respected especially as he has form lto over c/d .. ..overall though cant escape the value seemingly on offer here in sir dudley (3)...collateral form with fav suggests hes weighted to go close today yet is 7x the price !!!  Yes the fav might improve ...but will have to .   Ew bet to be safer 

Ps boycie is a good price around 12/1 ...but has been off 66 days so thats why I opposed him 

Sir dudley 2 pts ew 14/1 lads 

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

a variant on the above method this is a little different but the one in previous brief tests that showed the most promise ......as i was saying above you want to know what the horses current running rating is and my friend is an athlete and many times ive seen him running at the track and a lot of my horse racing methods and formulas came from watching that ......i calculated my first speed formula from watching athletes on the track because it very similar to horses ......as i watched athletes running i thought to myself ........if im running to a certain level then surely i know what that level is if i know what the 2 nearest people to finish by me is ??

so i jotted down a hcap syst that says if you look at the first 5 in the betting where most winners come from statistically and the bookies arent daft so they price races accordingly ......if you look at a horses last run in a hcap and look at the values of the horses that finished just in front then you can work out a rough guide to what the horses "number " is that day .......for instance lets say horse b   finished 2 lengths down 2nd in hcap winner was rated 77 3rd placed horse was rated 73 and was half length behind horse b  2 lengths is 4lb taken from 77 is 73 and nearest horse was 73 so his number can be considered "73 ".......if the horse won then you calc the average of the two nearest and the add lengths /lbs on ....so a 3 length winner would be plus 6 lbs etc (9lbs at 5f )......lets take a look at a race today 

110 south 

razin hell  2nd and 3rd were 71 and 69 and he was 2 lengths winner so 71 plus 2l at 6f is around "76"

sartori is second fav  beat 64 band 62 by 1 and three quarters so rating around "68-69"

the others are in poor form 

so as you can see the fav razin hell is well clear on who hes been running against of late and is available at 7/4

lets back it and see what happens 

razin hell 4 pts win 7/4 willh