AW Racng Monday

[Trotter]

Being a bit contrary I've decided to get stuck into the AW again just as everyone else is gearing up for Cheltenham

Plus I can't seem to find many winners over the jumps

 

4.30 Kemp - Brazen Spirit - win at 9/1 bog bet365

7 runners for the 6f sprint handicap

I don't think there's anything here which looks well handicapped on current form, nothing looks particularly unexposed or an improving type

I've put a line through 4 of them because this doesn't appear to be their ideal trip........Doctor Parkes better over 5F, Bouclier, Cool Strutter and Saint Pois (Saint Peas ?) maybe better over further. If there are horses that I think the Official Assessor has about right then really I want them to at least have ideal conditions as to track, trip, going

Yeeoow would appear to have a chance......back to last winning mark and won a claimer last time. Has won over this CD a couple of times. He'd been pretty well beaten in his 3 runs in handicaps before dropping into claiming company and winning and I'm worried that retruning to handicaps will find him out again

Head space is on his last winning mark and is also a CD winner. He's finished 2nd the last twice but has crept up 4lbs for not winning. Also up in class as his two decent runs have been in class 5 races

Which leaves my selection........also on his last winning mark and a CD winner. Having his second run back from a break and ran over 7F last time, he was close up until fading in the final furlong. Return to 6F should suit, hopefully improve a bit for the run and gets the first time visor. Drawn wide but there doesn't appear to be much pace so i think he'll get across and sit behind the leaders

 

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by Trotter

[Trotter]

.........and just to avoid the possibility of a one post thread, here's my Nap of the Day selection......

 

Kemp 3.25 - Maverik - EW at 20/1 bog wm hill

Mile handicap, class 5

Going for one of the outsiders here who hasn't won for a while but has been falling down the handicap. I've got a hunch he might put in a better performance today. He was fairly well beaten last time out finishing last of 10 but let's list some positives -

last time was his first run after a break and over a trip too short at a track he's not won at. Returns to his proper trip today and is a dual CD winner

drops into class 5 for the first time since Sept 2011 having come down another 3lbs to 75 which gets him in this 0-75

gets all the gear.......first time blinkers, first time tongue strap

was beaten 10 lengths last time but the runs immediately prior to his last 3 wins he was beaten 15, 9 and 39 lengths so he's quite capable of bouncing back from a poor run

Think the short price favourite here is poor value despite a good win last time.......that was a shocking race and even at class 5 this is much better

 

Main problem........dead 8 runners. I'll have to think about scrapping this selection if there's a non runner and I couldn't put money down without knowing if I had 3 places........