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Lay Correct score (poison)


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I don't know is that's the correct thread for this post....fell free to move...

rules:

I'll calculate correct score using poison distribution and compare odds with BF.

Just league matchs on leagues with 10 or more games played.

Initial bank will be 1000 units and each bet will take 3% bank.

Odds under 10 to minimize layabilitie.

 

I don't pretend to win every bet, but make a profit by paying under probabilitie.

I'll start with a match in less than one hour because i think my first pick will fail ;(

 

DATE HOME AWAY SCORE % ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK
30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55     1000.00

 

GL.

 

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Almost!

DATE HOME AWAY SCORE PROB ODDS BF LAY ODD RISK STAKE RESULT PROFIT BANK
30/11/2015 RUBIN SPARTAK MOSCOW 1-1 8.63 11.59 7.60 30.00 4.55 W 4.25 1004.55
30/11/2015 NAPOLI INTER 2-1 5.05 19.81 10.00 30.14 3.35      

 

Probability of 2-0 is 6.61% ...15.12  odds  but odds of bf was 9.8, just 0.2 from 2-1 with a prob, of 5.05%, Maybe a better pic, let's see.

 

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