flat racing tues 6th oct

[richard-westwood]

340 leic 

field of dream  99.15 

magic city    99.01

your fired   98.99

 

poor race really and cant back with any degree of confidence as top two are out of form really and are only being backed bec as use their prices are better than their chance today ...  field of dream won royal hunt cup last year so obviously has talent and is now top rated so suggests hes coming back to form .....magic city likewise a talented horse whos done nothin recently but usually picks a race or two up so maybe he can run well .....value bets 

magic city  2 pts ew  9/1 bet365

field of dream 2 pt ew 14/1 paddyp

 

[chris34]

7.40 Kempton

Really interesting handicap with a couple of interesting runners who are potentially better than this grade if they can get there act together.

Muhtaris previously comes from top connections, having won on the flat for Godolphin when last seen on the flat off a mark of 77 at Wolves , then made the switch to Ferguson for a career over hurdles winning on debut before running 2 very below par efforts when last seen in Feb 2014, not seen since then but switches back to flat after such alengthy absence running offlast winning mark. Yard not exactly renowned for turning fortunes around and havnt had a runner for 14 days so yard form very much an unknown, very risky.

Geordie Man is similar in that he won his maiden on debut in Oct 2012 and not seen since until 2 weeks ago when running down the field, left with something to prove now despite being completly unexposed.

Lisamour ran well latest start perhaps flattened by that result and a further 2lb rise wont make life easier.

Mikandy comes from a yard in hot form at present and he has been largely consistent all summer, handicapper being rather kind leavng his mark unchanged. Wide draw wont help today and skinny price considering he has become a regular bridesmaid.

There doesnt appear a huge amount of pace in this race and that may not suit the current favourite Magical Thomas who probably ran his best race to date when held up off the pace finishing well over CD a repeat of that would see him go close but a 3lb rise in handicap again makes things tougher.

Dakota City looks massively overpriced in my opinion. He can be his own worst enemy starting slowly which is never going to help on courses like bath and epsom where the emphasis is on speed, so his last 2 runs can be excused and prior to that he ran 2 brilliant races on the AW at Lingfield, winning impressively off 62 before running a good 2^nd off 69, a return to the AW could be the key to him and only 3lb higher from that 2^nd when last seen on the surface.

 

1pt e/w Dakota City 25/1 bet365

 

8.10 Kempton

Not a race to go overboard about with many of these having a good chance and looks wide open.

The one that does catch the eye is Strategic Force, not the best drawn in stall 10 but comes from the Cox yard in top form, he has run well twice at Windsor in the summer. First time cheekpieces last time out were promising in a large field handicap at Doncaster. A return to the AW could be the key again to him 6 runs on the AW with 2 wins and 2 placed effots, latest win coming over CD off just a 2lb lower mark and not fully exposed on this surface.

 

1pt win Strategic Force 8/1 hills

 

9.10 Kempton

Ghost Train is consistent however he looks quirky under pressure, travelled very sweetly into the race last time out however when came under pressure looked awkward and reluctant to a certain degree.

Foie Gras is another that will probably pay his way this winter but looks a little high in the handicap and didnt do much last time to suggest his turn is near at present.

Secret Bird has obvious favourites chance having won on handicap debut last time out at Windsor, that race hasnt worked out that great and a 5lb rise might be enough however totally unexposed, well beaten on debut in a maiden on the polytrack so a bit of an unknown too.

Ben Hall might be the answer, winner on penultimate start when getting a soft lead at Chelmsford, probably just as good last time out when totally unable to get involved and unable to get to thefront. Still ran as if in form and he is the only front runner in this field and from a good draw too, could prove hard to get past.

 

2pt win Ben Hall 4/1 hills