shots and goals

[eler13]

hi.

The last few days I am concerned about the following thought. But first I 'll start with an example to make this clearer.

Let's take the next game of Premier League, Everton - Man Utd and let's assume that Everton will make 15 shots and Man Utd 25 shots. My question is, how we can using the above numbers to calculate the expected goals? 

 

[Matthew]

Use historic averages and on target % or shots per goal top understand the expectation of the number of goals if Utd have 25 shots.