World Grand Prix 2015

[Jazzer Isaac]

Darts.
Sunday.

Most 180s on the day - Michael van Gerwen vs Keegan Brown @ 8/1. 1 point.

365 have just stuck this market up and I think this is an excellent price.

Short games + the double-in lead to a low number of 180s per game which implies a tight distribution between the 8 games on the night. Blindly, I was drawn to the outsiders because of this - and when I saw that one of the outsiders is a game involving Michael van Gerwen it sprang out at me.

MvG, Dave Chisnall and Michael Smith, 3 of the top 4 180 hitters in the game, are all playing on this night. If they each played 10 legs, I would find it hard to separate them in a 'player with the most 180s' market, so it seems wise to look to their opponents in order to gauge the probabilities in the 'game with the most 180s' market. Chisnall plays Peter Wright, Michael Smith plays Gerwyn Price and MvG plays Keegan Brown. Again, I'd find it hard to separate these players in a 'player with the most 180s market', but would put Wright a very marginal favourite.

The other match of note is Adrian Lewis vs Raymond van Barneveld - I'd place both players in the top 10 180 hitters and I'd probably put this as favourite in the market if pushed.

365 are obviously banking on MvG finishing Brown quickly, shortening the match as much as possible and decreasing the number of opportunities for 180 scoring. I don't think this will happen. I've got a point on Brown to win the match and he will certainly make a fight of it whether in vain or not.

If Brown can keep the match close, this pick has a decent chance of being a winner. I just can not see why this match is double the odds of the Chisnall, Lewis and Smith games. Maybe it's a flaw in my logic but I am not bothered at all about laying down a point on this.

As a final note, with the tightly distributed numbers of 180s, I think that DH rules could well have to be applied in this market.

 

[Jazzer Isaac]

To win quarter 3 - Robert Thornton @ 11/2. 365. 2 points.

Not much reasoning to this one. I priced each hypothetical match in the quarter to construct the market, and this comes out as well under where it should be in my opinion.

If Thornton can get past Gurney in the first round, I think he has the beating of Pipe and Beaton in the second and will certainly come back as a strong favourite. He reaches the quarter final with probability ~0.5 and from there you look to the potential opponents.

Ian White vs Gary Anderson in the second round is the key match in the opposite eighth. White is playing superbly of late and I've marked it as a match where he will probably be overpriced. They are currently the best two players in the quarter and I make Thornton the dog should he play either in the QF. But by running into each other in the second stage (and recalling I think my price is different to the bookies planned price on that game), it decreases the chance of Anderson getting to the QF and thus the SF. Gary Anderson is very overvalued in this market, with Thornton getting the main benefit from that. Everyone else in the quarter is priced accurately in my opinion.