Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

[edtkh]

It seems interest in tennis is dwindling by the day in PL, but I'll start a thread for the Hamburg Masters nonetheless - for those who know a thing or two about the sport, do feel free to contribute to make for a livelier discussion. ;) 30pts Roddick-Grosjean (1.96 @ Ladbrokes) :( While Roddick is by no means the greatest claycourt player around, there's little doubt he has improved his claycourt performances a great deal over the last year. His opponent, Massu, however, has done very little since clinching Gold at the Athens Olympics last summer and has been in atrocious form all year, losing to all and sundry - he'd come close to being whitewashed by Henman just last week in Rome. I just can't see how he could give Roddick too many problems considering Massu wasn't the greatest claycourt player at his peak to begin with, nevermind the fact he's hardly a semi-decent player at the moment. Similarly, Grosjean at 1.40 to beat Joachim Johansson is simply licence to print money. Johansson's first round defeat to Seppi at the Rome Masters a week ago is quite simply one of the worst claycourt performances I've had the misfortune of watching in my lifetime - and I'm not exagerrating one bit, it was that bad! For the top local seed at the upcoming French Open not to beat an out-of-sorts and totally incompetent player on clay in the form of J Johansson would just be unthinkable. Nevertheless, 1.40 is certainly massive value for a bet I'd gladly settle for 1.25. :tongue2 10pts T Johansson-Ancic (3.75 @ Ladbrokes) :( Johansson should have little trouble making the second round just as he did in Rome a week ago - it's laughable Chela starts this one as an odds-on favourite against the Swede. I've said ever so often Johansson is a solid and effective player who has got a game that suits him on all surfaces and more often than not, helps him beat mediocre players. Clearly, Chela will fit that bill to a T given the fact he's not entirely convincing on clay and he also has a terrible knack of failing to whole serves which I feel will cost him dear against Johansson. 2.25 certainly looks to big to be given a miss. Similarly, Ancic has been unfortunate not to have made a bigger impact on clay than he has so far this year. I personally don't believe Ancic's record on clay does his ability justice considering he's had the beating of classy claycourt players like Kuerten on his CV - in Rome, he was just unfortunate to be drawn against an in-form Stepanek who proved what a durable player he was even against the very finest in Nadal. That said, Mayer is no better and even if he's got the home crowd backing him, I don't think his inefficiencies on clay will be sufficient for him to turn this match on its head and dominate Ancic from the baseline. :hope Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100pts

[harryg]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Have been following your selections and have made a profit. Backed Coria yesterday but could not be disapointed with his effort, if everthing i backed tried like that, what a match. Keep up the good work thanks.

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Stanleybet have put up Grosjean at 1/2 v J Johansson. A good price, if you are right, Ed. Also included Youzhny v Beck at 4/9, and Canas v Santoro at 1/4 in a treble. A small interest in T Johansson v Chela, as TJ is pretty consistent, and Chela anything but. You would also think Stepanek v Saulnier at 2/9 would be a safe thing, if there is such a thing in tennis.

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) I am always interested in the tennis threads here, dont contribute because I havent been betting on tennis long enough. edtkh I am interested as to why you always like to bet in doubles and trebles, I seem to do better betting in singles?

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Not sure if this is why Ed does it, but in my opinion betting on a single non-favourite at odds of say 2.3-ish, is not nearly as good on betting on 2 clear favourites at around 1.5 each (which would lead to a 2.25 double). In terms of who is the favourite, bookies rarely get it wrong (or at least have the same opinion as the experts) so there isn't much in terms of finding good prices - and using the same logic, betting on 2 favourites you have a good chance - just need to find the 2 that won't let you down (as happens a lot in tennis).

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) As you say tyreeq favourites in tennis can let you down. So for extra security why not back selected short priced favourites in singles. Returns would only trickle in obviously but as a long term strategy that is acceptable?

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) 'It seems interest in tennis is dwindling by the day in PL, but I'll start a thread for the Hamburg Masters nonetheless - for those who know a thing or two about the sport, do feel free to contribute to make for a livelier discussion.' ;) Always interested in your views Edkth and follow and play a little tennis myself.Hard to follow the form of some of the minor players though and thats why your selections are even more impressive-particularly when compared with the Racing Posts match predictions who seem well able to create an odds on gamble which usually falters.Keep up the good work!

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

As you say tyreeq favourites in tennis can let you down. So for extra security why not back selected short priced favourites in singles. Returns would only trickle in obviously but as a long term strategy that is acceptable?

In my opinion - although I'm a relatively inexperienced gambler - constantly backing short odds is not all that likely to give you an overall profit. Since short odds are the ones that tend to be backed the most, and with the most money, bookies cut them more than they are supposed to be and so they don't represent value for money... I'm sure if you pick the right ones then you may be ok - but the chances are against you IMO.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

Not sure if this is why Ed does it, but in my opinion betting on a single non-favourite at odds of say 2.3-ish, is not nearly as good on betting on 2 clear favourites at around 1.5 each (which would lead to a 2.25 double). In terms of who is the favourite, bookies rarely get it wrong (or at least have the same opinion as the experts) so there isn't much in terms of finding good prices - and using the same logic, betting on 2 favourites you have a good chance - just need to find the 2 that won't let you down (as happens a lot in tennis).

For the benefit of those who didn't see a post in a previous tennis thread, I tend to stack up selections which will give me something close on evens. This is especially tangible in the early rounds of major tournaments where many favourites are shoo-in anyway. That way, even if a selection lets you down, you wouldn't lose as much as for you to put your mortgage on a seemingly dead cert(something which I have never been an advocate of). Obviously, as tyreeq has mentioned, value is another factor that has to be considered - putting your mortgage on odds-on favourites won't take you very far and it certainly isn't a profittable strategy IMO. Personally, I find it more profittable to put together a selection of a double or treble at reasonable odds than to either 1.put a huge stake on an odds-on favourite or 2.put up an acca of 10-15 selections with odds 1.02 - 1.17. Of course, there could be others out there for whom such methods have worked, but I'm definitely not a big fan of that method. Anyway, T Johansson has lost by a slender 6-4 in the final set when he actually had a chance to break back Chela in the final game. Here's hoping Roddick completes the job for a lucrative double nonetheless as Grosjean looks to be whipping J Johansson as expected. :ok

[NW1970]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Well, T Johansson lost after winning the first set. Youzhny dispatched Beck 3 and 2. Grosjean 1 set up v J Johansson. Ancic easily thrashed Mayer, just to make TJ's defeat even more annoying for you, Edtkh. That always happens when you do a double, doesn't it? I fully expect Grosjean to win and then Canas surprisingly losing to Santoro to bollox my treble.

[dave]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

In my opinion - although I'm a relatively inexperienced gambler - constantly backing short odds is not all that likely to give you an overall profit.

I think Joe has shown that it's actually the oppoisite to what you say - there is a favourite-longshot bias, which means that blindly backing short prices loses less money than blindly backing bigger prices.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Roddick's available to back in excess of evens against Massu as he's down a break in the first set - get on it quick, guys. :ok It's currently 3-2 to Massu as I write, Roddick to serve next. Value doesn't come much bigger than that...

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

I think Joe has shown that it's actually the oppoisite to what you say - there is a favourite-longshot bias' date=' which means that blindly backing short prices loses less money than blindly backing bigger prices.[/quote'] Yes, I'd imagine that would be the case - however I think that's more due to the fact that short prices are more likely to win on a regular basis compared to longer odds. However, correct me if I'm wrong, in theory punter's make the money when the quoted price is "wrong" per say. So if someone is at 2.5, and you think he should be at 2.00, you are bascially betting on the differential. Now that differential is 0.5 in this case - however if you are talking about 1.05 --> 1.01 you have a much smaller differential. This is balanced by the fact that it's easier to pick the latter case as bookies usually know what they're talking about, and thus more often than not you are probably going to lose the first bet - but you need to win 12-13 times for the 2nd bet to be better value than if you win the first just once. With blind backing than you will lose out - however using your own knowledge you can find these opportunities to make sure that you get them right more than once every 15 shots. Hope you get what I'm saying as it's not even that clear in my head so I doubt that it will be all that clear in paper!

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

Roddick's available to back in excess of evens against Massu as he's down a break in the first set - get on it quick, guys. :ok It's currently 3-2 to Massu as I write, Roddick to serve next. Value doesn't come much bigger than that...

Thanks for that - unfortunately I missed it! Just wondering, if it's 3-2 to Massu with Roddick to serve, doesn't that mean that it's back on serve? You meant Massu to serve right?

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Well Roddick managed to break back but lost the set on a tie break. Currently 6/5 on Bet365.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

Thanks for that - unfortunately I missed it! Just wondering, if it's 3-2 to Massu with Roddick to serve, doesn't that mean that it's back on serve? You meant Massu to serve right?

Sorry, I meant game 6 was in progress with Roddick to serve next - anyway, Roddick broke back during that game to tie it at 3-3. It doesn't matter now, Roddick's lost the match but certainly there were plenty of opportunities to trade had anyone backed him above evens... ;)

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) My thoughts on some of todays matches: Martin to bt. Safin. At 2.75 these odds are cut slightly due to Safin's fantastic ability not to really care some times. I think with him coming up against a clay courter he may end up in some trouble today, and a small punt on these odds might be worth something... Others I fancy are Almagro to bt. Volandri at 2.20 (a 50-50 game for me here) and Mirnyi to bt. an ageing Costa at 2.25 (Mirnyi pretty rubbish on clay but I don't think Costa has the same reactions any more and might find a big server hard to handle). We'll see.

[dave]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Safin 6-0 H2H, 4-0 on clay. But he is always dangerous to bet on.

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

Safin 6-0 H2H, 4-0 on clay. But he is always dangerous to bet on.

On paper he is bound to win - however he does self-destruct and has been in poor form, and a small stake might come up trumps...

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Unrelated to hamburg, but has anyone any thoughts on 7/4 Henin-Hardenne for Paris. She is really back in form and has won me a few quid in the past.I think she'll shorten a lot so I may get in early. Any Russians hiding in the long grass? Any opinions?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

Unrelated to hamburg' date=' but has anyone any thoughts on 7/4 Henin-Hardenne for Paris. She is really back in form and has won me a few quid in the past.I think she'll shorten a lot so I may get in early. Any Russians hiding in the long grass? Any opinions?[/quote'] Lump on it, there's no reason for her to be that big. The only player on the current WTA tour whom I'd rate better than Henin-Hardenne on clay - and that's provided she's in top form - is Serena Williams. Nevertheless, 7/4 is still massive enough for you to trade back later... dave, I'd be keen to know when did those 6 meetings between Safin and Martin take place. Martin has improved big time over the last 18 months and he was someone who'd lose to all and sundry prior to that, so I wouldn't really suggest reading too much into Safin's form if his wins all came before 2004.

[ian3012]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) edtkh and all you tennis punters...... can massu beat gasquet in the 2nd round?...... i don't think he was as injured as he made out against roddick.... roddick was taking the pi.. out him for feigning injury..... hes at 3 on betfair.... gasquet is 1.5.... a qualifier? also.... can lopez do it again?...........(vs volandri) he didn't look too bad against agassi.....(in fact the only thing that did look bad was my betfair account.:( ) on the sky coverage they said that lopez performs better in front of a big crowd .... well he certainly dug in there. massu and lopez must be strutting around like peacocks after taking those yank scalps? (and my hard earned cash:cry ) advice plz?

[ian3012]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) and while i'm whingeing..... can someone answer this plz? why do the favourites keep getting beaten in these tournaments? surely the bookies set the odds?.... don't they know the game.... or are they just going off the rankings?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

edtkh and all you tennis punters...... can massu beat gasquet in the 2nd round?...... i don't think he was as injured as he made out against roddick.... roddick was taking the pi.. out him for feigning injury..... hes at 3 on betfair.... gasquet is 1.5.... a qualifier? also.... can lopez do it again?...........(vs volandri) he didn't look too bad against agassi.....(in fact the only thing that did look bad was my betfair account.:( ) on the sky coverage they said that lopez performs better in front of a big crowd .... well he certainly dug in there. massu and lopez must be strutting around like peacocks after taking those yank scalps? (and my hard earned cash:cry ) advice plz?

I must admit I was pretty surprised with how Massu turned it on against Roddick, but there's no doubt the American played it into the Chilean's hands in a way. Massu was there for the taking time and again(Roddick even broke back at one point after having been broken in the deciding set) - only problem was, Roddick played like the cnut we all know he is on clay and basically when you don't take your chances, they're bound to come back to haunt you(can't believe Roddick hasn't learned from the Verdasco fiasco last week). Does that make Massu a better player? No, but I'm certainly under no illusions his confidence must have been boosted by beating a top 10 player. Having said that, Gasquet has yet to convince me he has what it takes to play under pressure - Agassi tore him apart when that should really never have been the case had he played Agassi in Rome the way he sent Federer packing in Monte Carlo. If forced to choose, I'd go with Gasquet, but this is one I'd much rather leave alone considering there're other more clearcut matches out there. As for Volandri, the Italian looks a shoo-in. I don't think he so much beat Agassi as Agassi self-destructed. Putting it simply, Agassi was simply awful and perhaps, age and fatigue is really catching up with him considering how draining it must have been for him to reach the semis in Rome. Volandri is a claycourt specialist far more adept than Lopez ever will be and is certainly not one to hand Lopez free points the way Agassi did.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

and while i'm whingeing..... can someone answer this plz? why do the favourites keep getting beaten in these tournaments? surely the bookies set the odds?.... don't they know the game.... or are they just going off the rankings?

Bookies are humans too, aren't they? Just because they make a selection out to be favourite doesn't necessarily reflect the true situation of the matchup. Yes, for one, ranking(and the ATP rankings give no preference to the points earned on tournaments played on different surfaces, hence, it's not always an accurate reflection of the true standing of a player on a particular surface - if tennis was played on clay all year, J Johansson wouldn't even be fit to play in my backyard, nevermind in ATP events :rollin ) is something which plays heavily on the minds of those setting the odds, but that is not the sole criteria in determining the worth of a bet. Personally, the claycourt season is a disastrous time for punters to stake heavily on favourites as very often, many of the top players are not half the player on clay they're on the hardcourts. ;)

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) As I wasn't in yesterday, I didn't have the time to post any bets. I'll start off with one as I'll be heading out - will probably post more up if I get back soon enough. 10pts Kuerten-Puerta (3.44 @ Ladbrokes) :( I've been a big fan of Kuerten on clay down the years and as far as I'm concerned, he's pretty much his biggest enemy, really. When fit, I can't see too many - besides the Coria and Nadals, maybe - people giving him problems and on the back of his performance against Pavel, he looks to have regained more sharpness than he'd had over the past couple of weeks. Robredo struggled against an unheralded Waske and there's no way he belongs in the league of a fit Kuerten. Nevertheless, I'll keep my stakes low as I'm still uncertain as to whether Kuerten can consistently reproduce the sort of form which made him such a great claycourt player. Similarly, Davydenko has been rubbish the last few months and he's certainly not going to get the better of Puerta who's just so much more adept on clay. This should really be more straightforward than the 1.72 would suggest. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok

[dave]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

dave' date=' I'd be keen to know when did those 6 meetings between Safin and Martin take place. Martin has improved big time over the last 18 months and he was someone who'd lose to all and sundry prior to that, so I wouldn't really suggest reading too much into Safin's form if his wins all came before 2004.[/quote'] A bit late now but they were 2004, 2002, 2002, 2002, 2001 and 2001.

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) Wasn't Puerta the one who had some kind of suspicious goings on in his game against Melzer a few weeks back? Did that all turn out to be nothing in the end?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005) 30pts Monaco to beat Novak (2.10 @ Ladbrokes) :( This is simply a cracking bet - case in point of the sportsbooks getting the prices wrong IMO due to rankings more than anything. Monaco would struggle to get a sniff against Novak had this match been played on any other surface, but on clay, I just can't see anything but a stroll for the Argentinian. Although he was whitewashed by Canas in Rome last week, his defeat of an ever-improving Andreev in the previous round has shown he has already put the Rome Masters debacle to bed and so long as he's up for it, I can't see the aging Novak living with Monaco. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100pts Current Bank : 60pts Current Profit/Loss : -40pts

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis Masters Series : Hamburg (9th - 15th May 2005)

Wasn't Puerta the one who had some kind of suspicious goings on in his game against Melzer a few weeks back? Did that all turn out to be nothing in the end?

I don't know how much truth there is to that, but having said that, Puerta is obviously one of those guys who needs as much dough as he could get his hands on - I can't imagine him throwing a match in a Masters Series event considering he doesn't earn a fraction of what the Hewitts and Federers do. Oh, and let's not forget this bloke will probably be surviving on what he makes from the claycourt season for the rest of the year... ;)