Paparazzo Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Dear guys, I don't know if you experienced the "too good to be true" paradox... Let me go a bit in detail: I'm talking about a "valuebet" approach where is essential to calculate the fair odd to be compared to the market odd. I found, in various systems I'm testing, that if the expected advantage is above a certain level, it's better to bet the opposite selection (in an AH market only because the 1X2 market is tricky due to short DC odds) Let me show an example : Man U- Southampton selcetion 1 AH-0.5 Fair odd 1.35 Market odd 1.83. At first glance one should happily bet ManU with a huge advantage : (1.83-1)/(1.35-1)= 237% ... Well strange to say, but when the advantage is above approx. 170% maybe is worth to consider avoid betting or just bet the opposite! There can be many explanations, but right now I'm just willing to see if this happens also with other bettors, to enhance my idea and maybe built a filter or another strategy into the main strategy. Thank you all. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
De Graaf Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 The most likely explanation for this kind of circumstances is that your calculation is wrong. That kind of discrepancies between fair and market odd seldom exist. Just a suggestion, hope you don't find it rude. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 Well the calculation is always the same depending on the system you use, Assuming that the system works out well (gives profit) and because, as you say, this discrepancy seldom exits the odd tells us that something important is missing in the formula FOR THAT SPECIFIC MATCH. That's why maybe a good idea is either to leave or bet the opposite. Should you give a threshold, how much would be the average advantage? 105%, 120%...? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger21 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 If the system works then the more of an advantage you have the better normally. Otherwise the system must be flawed in some way, Selecting a point at which to "bet the opposite" way is probably just arbitrary in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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