Arsenal's Flat Bets

[arsenalfh]

The Horses to Follow wasn't really working out as I was only backing half of them which was not really the aim of the thread. Maybe next year I'll put together a list of 10 horses at most to follow over the season. Totals will be up tomorrow. I wanted some place to share my selections so I'm going to give it a go here. Again bets will be 1pt Win or 0.5pts Each-way with no starting bank. Fingers crossed for some good results.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 7:45 Sandown - Group 3 This looks a really good renewal headed in the market by the eye catching Easter Classic winner Tryster. He showed a frightening change of pace to beat Complicit close to home and if he can translate that ability to the turf he's sure to be in for a good season. This is a step up in class though and it remains to be seen whether he is as effective on turf so looks a little short at 9/4 in a strong race. Arab Spring beat some good yardsticks in Pether's Moon and Romsdal on his reappearance last month and although he should come on for that he's only rated 112 and much more is needed here against potential Group 1 performers carrying a 3lb penalty. The step back to 10f is also a concern in my eyes. Gosden sends two here led by Eagle Top who is the choice of Frankie Dettori. He was an impressive winner of a strong King Edward VII at Royal Ascot when he beat subsequent Group 1 winner Adelaide by 3 and a quarter lengths with future Group 2 winner Snow Sky in 4th. He showed some serious speed to come right from the back to win so comfortably in the heat of the Royal meeting on only his 3rd start and looked very much a Group 1 winner in the making. He was beaten 4 and 3/4 lengths by Taghrooda in the King George but she was very much a superstar and was only 2L behind the high class Telescope and Mukhadram. However he is likely to be best at 12f. Western Hymn is the other Gosden runner and he is very much at home over this trip. I thought he was quite impressive when beating Postponed last time as he didn't do a thing when hitting the front. Postponed then went on to frank the form at the Curragh in the Tattarsalls Gold Cup so it looked a good performance. He was once a big Derby contender and has definitely improved over the winter after being gelded so he looks to have strong claims. There is a question mark about the quick ground but he improved on better ground last time and seems to be just a very good horse. Tullius was workmanlike on his reappearance and was well beaten by Western Hymn last time so he's possibly past his best and Niceofyoutotellme looks more like a handicapper although his reappearance was encouraging. There's no likely pace setter here so the stoutly bred Arab Spring may find Tryster and Eagle Top too quick for him if it turns into a sprint who have both shown a strong turn of foot. Western Hymn looks a danger but I think Frankie's decision to side with EAGLE TOP says a lot about his chances. He has the best form in the book, will love the quick ground and without a penalty has the turn of foot to win this if it turns into a sprint. EAGLE TOP - 1pt Win @ 4/1 Skybet

[Toast]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Western hymn for me. Unbeaten over 10f below group 1 level. Got the classic 5 week prep aswell. On your last post, you put up Consort, on whom I commented on, especially if stuck to a mile. He debuts in the following race, proberley with an eye to the St James Palace. Would have to win this commandingly if he is to e considered good enough to take on Make Believe.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Half of me is saying the 5/2 available on Consort is too short considering he's had a setback and with bigger targets he might just need this. On the other hand I can't see Stoute rushing his best prospect and he looked a Group 1 animal in the making after winning that maiden. Johnny Barnes has the best form but can he show the same ability on quick ground? This race is full of unknowns and I'm more inclined to leave it alone but if I had to make a choice I think I'd rather side with Consort than oppose him.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 6:35 Sandown - Listed Race Steady Pace heads the market here but with several competitive looking rivals he looks one I'd like to take on. He quickened clear in a good looking maiden with the well beaten 2nd going on to run well in a class 2 contest. King of Rooks was beaten that day but didn't seem to run his race as he absolutely bolted up in a maiden 6 days later. Hannon clearly targets this race winning 5 of the last 8 renewals including last year for the same owners with Tiggy Wiggy and it would be no surprise to see his charge reverse the form. Like many others Areen won impressively under hands and heels on his racecourse debut. He was reportedly very professional in the prelims and although he was hanging in the final furlong when asked to quicken I'm sure he will have learned a lot from that. Sired by Kodiac who is no stranger to producing top 2 year olds this one looks very good beating some useful 2 year olds although he was receiving 10lbs from Ravenhoe. Case Key and Tawdheef will need to step up on their debut efforts to catch the front 3 in the market and I thought the latter was particularly interesting out of a dam who was once rated three figures. He may be better over further but he's entiltled to come on for the run. Kevin Ryan sends his best 2 year olds to York and I think sending Areen straight into a Novice race speaks volumes of his ability. Although a lot of these are sure to improve at 6/1 I think this ones too big and has a great chance on form. Areen - 1pt Win @ 6/1 Coral

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Consort was pretty impressive in the end picking up nicely in the final furlong after White Lake powered through from the back. Much better run from White Lake but he didn't seem to find anything when hitting the front. I know he's very highly rated but is apparently very immature.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 7:15 Haydock Tournament looks big here for a horse who has won his last two starts pretty convincingly. He moved to England from Andre Fabre for a 70,000 Guineas after winning a conditions race by 6L before winning at Lingfield by a shoulder on his first start for Seamus Durack. That win was far more convincing than the result suggested though as Jamie Spencer who takes the ride again today had his work cut out preventing him from hanging right over to the stands rail. Once he got him straightened up he picked up nicely to land the spoils. Interestingly he has an entry in the Royal Hunt Cup and he'll need to be better than these if he's to take his chance at Ascot. Out of a listed winner he's very well bred and the rain at Haydock will be very much welcomed by connections. Tournament - 1pt Win @ 12/1 Bet365

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Tournament couldn't have travelled any better and at one point I thought he was going to hammer these but he just didn't find as much as the winner off the bridle and was beaten comfortably. 13 quid traded at 1.48 in running. 2:35 Haydock - Group 3 Stepping down in class I have to think Aljamaaheer has a chance to get his head in front for only the 4th time. He was entitled to need the run when beaten a nose on his reappearance and never had a chance in the Lockhinge racing from off the pace from a wide draw. He's a classy horse placing in Diamond Jubilee and Queen Anne and is too big a price to ignore. Captain Cat is another who was below par in the Lockhinge. He never settled but he ran much better than the result suggested in the QEII on Champions Day last year. He was travelling the best in the last 2f against Group 1 performers but tired in the final furlong on heavy ground. Both have better draws today and will hopefully settle much better. The step back to 7f should suit both and ground on the easy side of good should be no inconvenience to either and perhaps help the chances of Roger Charlton's Captain Cat. Aljamaaheer - 1pt Win @ 15/2 bet365 Captain Cat - 1pt Win @ 12/1 bet365

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 4:05 Chantilly - Grand Prix de Chantilly - Group 2 Andre Fabre trains the well bred market leader Manatee who looked progressive as a 3 year old and can improve further from his reappearance. He's got to improve to land this Group 2 prize and although he does have the potential as a son of Monsun out of a mud loving mare the quicker conditions aren't likely to suit. He's won over 15f on very soft ground but has several wins over 12f and he wouldn't be here if his trainer didn't believe he had the speed for this trip. Prince Gibraltar is bred for 10f and although he stayed well over this trip in the Grand Prix de Paris as a 3 year old, that race was run at a slow pace and he was found out in the Arc weakening in the final furlong with every chance of placing. I wouldn't be too harsh on his reappearance as his trainer stressed he would need the run but he hasn't lived up to his promise as a juvenile and I can't have him over this trip. Next in the market is last years winner Spiritjim who then went on to beat Noble Mission in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud but was disqualified after it was found he used a banned substance to help with his breathing. He then ran well in the Prix Foy not far behind Flintshire despite never really settling off a slow pace so his form is strong. The ground looks ideal and I would be not be surprised if he runs a big race now back over his trip after not staying 15f on his reappearance. Agent Murphy comes over from the UK and although he won a Listed race at Ascot comfortably this is a big step up in class. He's likely to be up with the pace alongside German raider Guardini who was well beaten on his last two visits to France. He won a Group 2 in Germany last time out but also looks to have a bit to find. This is likely to be run at a strong pace with the two foreign raiders as well as Manatee likely to race prominently. This will put Prince Gibraltar's stamina under pressure but will play into the hands of Spiritjim likes to sit in behind the leaders and will relish an end to end gallop. Olivier Peslier is a great booking and with the ground, trip and strong gallop to suit last years winners can go close. Spiritjim - 1pt Win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 3:30 Chantilly - Prix de Sandringham - Group 2 Mexican Gold brings the best form finishing 3rd in the French 1000 Guineas but she looks very short in the betting with La Berma in particular looking a big danger. La Berma was hammered 30L on her reappearance by Ervedya but something must have been amiss as she then went on to win a Listed race at Longchamp by 6L. Impassable is well bred out of a Group 3 winner and looks progressive but she was beaten by the re-opposing Stormy Victoria who was subsequently held 2L by Night of Light receiving 5lbs. Both of these have a bit to find to reverse the form with Night of Light who won a Listed race last time out but even she will need to improve to land this prize and looks a bit exposed. Harpy has disappointed at 3 and Via Manzoni could potentially improve back over a mile but might just be a pacemaker for the favourite. Mexican Gold has the best form and should have a strong gallop which will suit but La Berma looks progressive and the step up to a mile should bring further improvement. Paddy Power are the outliers here pricing her up at 15/2 with 5/1 the next best price available and that looks too big to ignore. La Berma - 1pt Win @ 15/2 Paddy Power

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 2:45 Chantilly - Prix du Jockey Club - Group 1 I think there has been a bit of an overreaction to New Bay's performance in the French 2000 Guineas. He was beaten much easier than many would make you believe and although more is promised over 10f at 7/2 he looks very short in the betting. Several of these have dominated their rivals this season including favourite Karaktar who won the Prix Noailles under hands and heels. He looks to have strong claims for Andre Royem-Dupre who has an excellent record in this race. Silverwave is particularly interesting. He's from the first crop of French 2000 Guineas winner Silver Frost and has won his two starts at 3 by a combined 11L beating the highly rated Epicuris comfortably last time out. Closely related to Group 1 winner Storm River who's sire is the grandsire of Silverware and they are both out of the same mare. More is promised on better ground so I like his chances. I'm not keen on either of the O'Brien colts. He has a poor record in this as he sends his second string runners here and both of these will need to improve significantly to get involved. With a better draw than the market leaders and more promised on pedigree and on this ground I like Silverwave's chances. Silverwave - 1pt Win @ 6/1 Boylesports

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Beach Belle looks interesting in the 6f sprint at Naas if it keeps raining. Both Toscanini and Anthem Alexander want it quick and the latter also badly needed the run last year. 3:20 Naas - Listed Unfortunately missed the earlier prices but 6/4 still looks good value on Birchwood with the money pouring in. Richard Fahey sends him over from the UK with James Doyle booked to ride and he's currently one of the top rated juveniles on both sides of the sea. He tends to bend his knee a bit so this ground should suit him better and the others have a good bit of catching up to do on form. Air Force Marshal warrants respect as Aidan O'Brien throws him straight into a Listed contest and these War Fronts are usually pretty good first time out although he probably will find this ground a bit slow for his liking. Argentero was behind Round Two last time who went on to win a Listed race but the ratings suggest the latter improved significantly when scoring at the Curragh. Birchwood - 1pt Win @ 6/4 Skybet

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Birchwood very disappointing and finished pretty much eased up/ 4:45 Naas - Group 3 The ground has certainly turned in the favour of Beach Belle and with Atzeni booked I'm expecting her to run much better today. Both Toscanini and Anthem Alexander won't like this ground and could be vulnerable and although they may have too much class for Beach Belle at 10/1 with money coming she looks a good bet. More rain is forecasted over the next hour. Beach Belle - 1pt Win @ 10/1 Skybet

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Horrible start to the thread! Anthem Alexander was one I was really looking forward to seeing this year and I thought that was impressive given she really had nothing in her favour. Kevin O'Ryan says she's physically done really well over the winter and she has to be a massive player at Royal Ascot. Beach Belle out of excuses. She hasn't improved from her first two runs at all.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 4:30 Epsom - The Oaks Legatissimo is a worthy favourite after winning the 1000 Guineas in good style. She won over 9.5f at Gowran the week before and with tons of stamina on the dam's side she should get the 1m 4f at Epsom although it's interesting that Ryan Moore thinks she was more of a miler/10f. She certainly has bags of pace and 3/1 is a fair price. Crystal Zvezda bolted up in a Listed trial at Newbury and has been well backed with strong vibes from the Stoute Stable. She's light on stamina as a daughter of Dubawi out of 7f winner but is a half sister to Hillstar. She's progressive and there's surely more to come but given that she has tons of pace 10f may be her optimum trip. At the prices Legatissimo is far more appealing for me. Jack Naylor has also received a ton of support after an eye catching staying on 4th in the Irish 1000 Guineas. She's bred to relish the Oaks trip on both sides of her family and is entitled to come on for her reappearance. Aidan O'Brien sends 3 here led by Togther Forever who will definitely stay and was just held by Star of Seville in an Oaks trial. She will probably reverse the form off level weights and Aidan's horses notoriously improve for the run which is a positive sign. Diamondsandrubies won easily at Chester but it was a terrible race with the 2nd rated 83 and the third 85 so she looks to have place claims at best. Qualify hasn't done anything this season to show she is Group 1 class. Gosden didn't look too impressed when Star of Seville barely held Together Forever and she needed to win more convincingly receiving 4lbs to be an Oaks contender. Gosden also said last week that Dettori should look for the ride on Crystal Zvezda so he doesn't seem to think much of his string. Both herself and Jazzi Top look like 10f horses and are hard to fancy. Luca Cumani always seemed to think Lady of Dubai had potential going by what he said in the Racing Post but was surprised how quickly she improved when comfortably winning at Listed level last time out. The way she handled Goodwood suggests running around Epsom will suit but at 12/1 she's a bit short for one who may just need more time to show her true potential. Al Naamah obviously has to improve bundles to win here but she was found to be in season on her reappearance and should come on a ton for that. She was beaten in the dieing strides by race fit Little Nightingale who looks a very good filly after the second in her maiden win won a Group 2 in Germany and the third also won on her next start. She has the talent on pedigree as a sister to an Oaks winner and will definitely stay. Bellajeu is an intriguing contender for a trainer who has won two of the last 7 renewals. On paper she has a lot to find after being beaten in a trial at Lingfield but the stable won the Oaks in 2008 with Look Here who was also beaten in the same trial and was rated just 94 heading into the Oaks, 4lbs lower than Bellajeu's current mark. Talent was also a big priced winner for the stable so it would be foolish to rule her out as Beckett can clearly get significant improvement from his fillies over the spring. I'm going to look for some each-way value here and Al Naamah fits the bill. She's bred to win races like this and was sent over for a gallop around Epsom like Andre Fabre's Derby winner Pour Moi. There's no one better than Fabre to get a horse to fulfill their potential and I can see her improving a great deal on Friday. Bellajeu is a tempting each-way bet and if there is any significant rain on Friday which will suit she'll be carrying some of my money. Al Naamah - 0.5pts each-way @ 20/1 BetVictor

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Hopefully going to have time for a write up later but Kilimanjaro is my pick for the Derby. He looks completely unexposed to me and with Joseph picking him over the very solid looking Hans Holbein hopefully he's improved a ton. Kilimanjaro - 0.5pts each-way @ 20/1 Skybet

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 2:35 Epsom Can't help but think course specialist What About Carlo is a really nice price here. He's disappointed on his last to runs but he was a good 4th in the Lincoln on his reappearance and has dropped 3lbs since to 1lb above his last winning mark. The rain last night means the ground is now on the easy side of good which is ideal, he loves undulating courses also being a winner at Goodwood and with blinkers applied for the first time maybe they can eek out a bit of improvement too. Conditions are ideal for him and hopefully he'll produce a big run. What About Carlo - 1pt Win @ 11/1 Betvictor

[robertob]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets Agree on WAC. Backed him myself. But seems like every man and his dog is on WAC today.... surprised to see him still as big as he is though. Fingers crossed!

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 3:10 Epsom Been waiting to see if any bookmaker would lay a bigger price on Custom Cut all morning but 4/1 is the best price and that will do. I think he's best in small fields unlike Arod who will want lots of cover as a free horse. Shifting power is a bit of an awkward colt and I don't see Epsom suiting. Custom Cut - 1pt Win @ 4/1 Boylesports

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets

Agree on WAC. Backed him myself. But seems like every man and his dog is on WAC today.... surprised to see him still as big as he is though. Fingers crossed!

Made some good headway coming into the home straight but didn't pick up from there. Nothing seemed to come from the rear off an ordinary gallop though. He'll probably be winning pretty soon especially if he gets dropped a pound or two for that.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets

3:10 Epsom Been waiting to see if any bookmaker would lay a bigger price on Custom Cut all morning but 4/1 is the best price and that will do. I think he's best in small fields unlike Arod who will want lots of cover as a free horse. Shifting power is a bit of an awkward colt and I don't see Epsom suiting. Custom Cut - 1pt Win @ 4/1 Boylesports

Arod was still fresh but was too good receiving weight from Custom Cut. He looks better over a mile.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 3:45 Epsom David Nicholls knows what it takes to win the Dash and he has a contender in Pearl Acclaim who's tumbled down the weights. He was beaten 3.25L by the progressive Out Do who has since finished 2nd in a Listed race while the 2nd and 4th have also won since so it was a strong race. Now racing off 87 on quick ground from a nice draw in stall 9 conditions look ideal for a big run. Pearl Acclaim - 0.5pts each-way @ 25/1 PaddyPower

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 2 for me tomorrow at the Curragh. 2:05 Curragh Aidan O'Brien felt his unraced 2.2m purchase Air Vice Marshall was good enough to be declared in a Listed race last Monday but was withdrawn after the rain turned the ground soft. The ground was good to yielding on Thursday and it's been mainly dry on this side of the country since so I expect the going to be quicker tomorrow which should be ideal. Aidan's nearly always improve for the run but these War Front colts are usually very good first time out and the trainer's decision to declare him for a Listed race also suggests he's ready to put in a big performance. I expected him to be around the 6/4 mark so 5/2 looks a solid bet to me. Air Vice Marshall - 1pt Win @ 5/2 Betfair

[arsenalfh]

Re: Arsenal's Flat Bets 3:10 Curragh Eddie Lynam's Mr Good Guy has now dropped down to a mark of 73 which looks competitive after finishing 1.75L behind the winner at a big handicap here at the Curragh off 85 on his final start last season. He was beaten 6L here on Guineas weekend off 80 not getting a clear run when making some ground on the inside and that was enough for me to think he can get involved in a weaker race like this off a lower mark. It is worth noting that he essentially ran off 75 that day with claimer Robbie Downey taking the ride. He then was stepped up in trip but clearly did stay but back over 6f on good ground with the tongue tie back on as well as the first time visor I'm hoping to see an improved performance. Paddy Power are paying 4 places in this 15 runner race. Mr Good Guy - 0.5pts each-way @ 16/1 PaddyPower