UK General Election 2015

[RavenDel]

Firstly, hi folks - first post! :D Generally I'd avoid any form of betting on politics. It's so variable compared to other things you can attempt to predict, but I've seen something that I believe is good value and wanted to ask opinions on. Total Seats - Over/Under - SNP over 43.5 - 1/1 (Evens) with McBookie.com Link to the market including other parties Being a Scot, it seems like this is too good to be true. All the polls predict a huge SNP victory. Tonight's Scottish TV debate is potentially Labour's last chance to influence this greatly...and then I read this article. Is this priced too kindly, or am I missing something here?

[Dumyat]

Re: UK General Election 2015 A great bet to have taken over 43.5 SNP seats at 1/1. I wonder if it is now time to go in the other direction and bet under 51.5 at 1/1 with B365. The polls and the media are dominated by the SNP at the moment but I wonder if a similar effect to the referendum will be felt with a much more silent majority taking a different view. There is also something a bit more substantial to that simple gut feeling since I notice that SPIN have SNP seats at 46.5-48.5. I don't know if it would be appropriate to use a simple binomial distribution with 47.5 as the middle. That would imply 51 or less is a 91% chance so I'm guessing you cant just use an average 80.5% and see how many you win in 59 seats.