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RavenDel

UK General Election 2015

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Firstly, hi folks - first post! :D Generally I'd avoid any form of betting on politics. It's so variable compared to other things you can attempt to predict, but I've seen something that I believe is good value and wanted to ask opinions on. Total Seats - Over/Under - SNP over 43.5 - 1/1 (Evens) with McBookie.com Link to the market including other parties Being a Scot, it seems like this is too good to be true. All the polls predict a huge SNP victory. Tonight's Scottish TV debate is potentially Labour's last chance to influence this greatly...and then I read this article. Is this priced too kindly, or am I missing something here?

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Re: UK General Election 2015 A great bet to have taken over 43.5 SNP seats at 1/1. I wonder if it is now time to go in the other direction and bet under 51.5 at 1/1 with B365. The polls and the media are dominated by the SNP at the moment but I wonder if a similar effect to the referendum will be felt with a much more silent majority taking a different view. There is also something a bit more substantial to that simple gut feeling since I notice that SPIN have SNP seats at 46.5-48.5. I don't know if it would be appropriate to use a simple binomial distribution with 47.5 as the middle. That would imply 51 or less is a 91% chance so I'm guessing you cant just use an average 80.5% and see how many you win in 59 seats.

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Absolutely agree. SNP is not such a firepower to sweep political scene in Scotland in such a short time. Labour good tradition there, while Lib Dems will nick a few seats. A. Most seats Labour odds 5 >totesport - I wonderwhy Tory party are so huge favourites. Months ago Labour was on the highway to landslide victory somehow it looks like a draw even with Conservative leading the polls (sic!). Some mistakes by Labour leadership plus illusion of economic recovery helped to give a gear to Conservatives but still working people are outraged at current government and Cameron will get a spanking on Thursday. If we have a polls like 35% Labour and 33% Conservatives it still means huge Labour advantage as constituencies are gerrymandered by last Labour government and Lib Dems opposed constituency reform and Tories have to have at least 5% more in the polss to match Labour seats result - and they are even trailing in the polls! In this situation shot on Labour most seats is the must, especially if they will score in Scotland better than suggestive media indicate. B. Will Nigel Farage to win a seat YES 1,8 bwin. Also UKIP winner in South Thanet 1,91 >Coral (higher odds will be included, I just show markets) UKIP will not repeat 2014 success as I said partially it is their fault, partially they have not really media support apart from Russia Today and Daily Express hard to say they are favoured by any media. Still they should get a few seats without a doubt as they should keep their by election gains (Douglas Carswell is 100% hit but I doubt you will get good odds for him, ald also the second guy I forgot name) Farage I assume will win his seat, he is favourite there despite UKIP are in a defensive mode recently. Only conservative candidate might harm Farage's election chances but it is a no name and Farage will beat him easily by personality and hype, UKIP are very clever and organised there. C. Total LibDems seat under 25,5 1,91 bwin This party is a phenomenon. They will be obliterated in this election by at least 50% (I think rather 66-75%) this election as they will pay the price for broken promises, coalition presence but they are strong in certain areas like Scotland, Cornwall and basically by the sea resorts plus few very rich areas. There was speculation how much seat they will get this time, I think personally this party will be reduced to 10-12 seats so the line is obviously too high. If we see Euro elections they were reduced from 11 to one Euro MP they should get no more than 10 seats, maybe slightly more. Without a doubt they will be obliterated and their seats number will fall from 57 to something like 12-16 in my opinion. D. UKIP over 2,5 seats >Betfred. Douglas Carswell is 100% seat, Mark Reckless is also favourite in Rotherham (no way Tories will beat him there, Labour may), they came so close in by-election in Manchester nearly gaining 3rd seat, Nigel Farage should win in South Thanet, they have chances in a few places. This is much more certain than 'Farage to win a seat' - they are on back gear but they should get at least two seats apart from Carswell's ones. E. SNP under 51,5 1,91 >unibet This party is strongly promoted in media, and all of sudden strong favourite to win Scotland seats while months ago they assume they will be part of independent country. I don't believe they will sweep Scottish places Labour despite all their problems there are not so weak and they will take at least 18 seats in Scotlandd plus LibDems will grrab a few. I see Scotland result something like 40 seats for Labour 20 something for SNP and 5-6 for Lib Dems. Definitely not SNP sweep as media suggest this is wishful thinking. Very good spot 'much more silent majority will take a different view' This is UK and political processes are not so rapid, UKIP will not sweep political scene in UK in just five years, so SNP will not in Scotland

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Re: UK General Election 2015

I see Scotland result something like 40 seats for Labour 20 something for SNP and 5-6 for Lib Dems. Definitely not SNP sweep as media suggest this is wishful thinking
I assume the Labour/SNP split there should be the other way round? Scottish Labour seats a solid buy at 8.5 if not! (Decent enough even if 20 is a realistic total.)

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Re: UK General Election 2015

Absolutely agree. SNP is not such a firepower to sweep political scene in Scotland in such a short time. Labour good tradition there, while Lib Dems will nick a few seats. A. Most seats Labour odds 5 >totesport - I wonderwhy Tory party are so huge favourites. Months ago Labour was on the highway to landslide victory somehow it looks like a draw even with Conservative leading the polls (sic!). Some mistakes by Labour leadership plus illusion of economic recovery helped to give a gear to Conservatives but still working people are outraged at current government and Cameron will get a spanking on Thursday. If we have a polls like 35% Labour and 33% Conservatives it still means huge Labour advantage as constituencies are gerrymandered by last Labour government and Lib Dems opposed constituency reform and Tories have to have at least 5% more in the polss to match Labour seats result - and they are even trailing in the polls! In this situation shot on Labour most seats is the must, especially if they will score in Scotland better than suggestive media indicate. B. Will Nigel Farage to win a seat YES 1,8 bwin. Also UKIP winner in South Thanet 1,91 >Coral (higher odds will be included, I just show markets) UKIP will not repeat 2014 success as I said partially it is their fault, partially they have not really media support apart from Russia Today and Daily Express hard to say they are favoured by any media. Still they should get a few seats without a doubt as they should keep their by election gains (Douglas Carswell is 100% hit but I doubt you will get good odds for him, ald also the second guy I forgot name) Farage I assume will win his seat, he is favourite there despite UKIP are in a defensive mode recently. Only conservative candidate might harm Farage's election chances but it is a no name and Farage will beat him easily by personality and hype, UKIP are very clever and organised there. C. Total LibDems seat under 25,5 1,91 bwin This party is a phenomenon. They will be obliterated in this election by at least 50% (I think rather 66-75%) this election as they will pay the price for broken promises, coalition presence but they are strong in certain areas like Scotland, Cornwall and basically by the sea resorts plus few very rich areas. There was speculation how much seat they will get this time, I think personally this party will be reduced to 10-12 seats so the line is obviously too high. If we see Euro elections they were reduced from 11 to one Euro MP they should get no more than 10 seats, maybe slightly more. Without a doubt they will be obliterated and their seats number will fall from 57 to something like 12-16 in my opinion. D. UKIP over 2,5 seats >Betfred. Douglas Carswell is 100% seat, Mark Reckless is also favourite in Rotherham (no way Tories will beat him there, Labour may), they came so close in by-election in Manchester nearly gaining 3rd seat, Nigel Farage should win in South Thanet, they have chances in a few places. This is much more certain than 'Farage to win a seat' - they are on back gear but they should get at least two seats apart from Carswell's ones. E. SNP under 51,5 1,91 >unibet This party is strongly promoted in media, and all of sudden strong favourite to win Scotland seats while months ago they assume they will be part of independent country. I don't believe they will sweep Scottish places Labour despite all their problems there are not so weak and they will take at least 18 seats in Scotlandd plus LibDems will grrab a few. I see Scotland result something like 40 seats for Labour 20 something for SNP and 5-6 for Lib Dems. Definitely not SNP sweep as media suggest this is wishful thinking. Very good spot 'much more silent majority will take a different view' This is UK and political processes are not so rapid, UKIP will not sweep political scene in UK in just five years, so SNP will not in Scotland
I'm not sure it's a good idea to have so many different bets. You are probably diluting any edge you might have

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Had a look at the spread markets having read the above posts. Some great bets to be had if Idtips is anywhere near correct. I offer no opinion of my own either way, all I'll say is that the spread firms have some pretty savvy clients so you'd assume they have to be careful how they price these markets. That said, I've seen some informed opinion elsewhere suggest they generally overestimate how well the Tories will do. First, these are the expected number seats for the relevant parties based on the midpoints of the main spread firms' prices, with Scottish seats in brackets. As with any spread expectation, the figures are not necessarily whole numbers. Conservative: 290 (0.93) Labour: 266 (23.5) Lib Dem: 25 (2.25) SNP 47.25 UKIP 3.28 (0.25) The following would be decent bets based on Idtip's views: Most seats Labour = sell Conservative over Labour seat supremacy at 21 with SPIN Total Lib Dem seats 2.5 seats = no bet unless you have enough confidence to buy at 3.8 with SPIN SNP

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Harry rag Scottish seats is one huge gamble and all the estimations can be completely wrong. This crazy for UK standards to think the whole part of the UK will swing so rapidly from one party to another http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_7.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/scotland/default.stm And all of sudden SNP will knock out everyone around? Not going to happel LibDems have strong affiliates there, while Labour has strong structures despite all media hype. Basically Lab and SNP are the same for scottish people and people opposed independence so it should rather mean knock out for SNP as they lost in their crucial issue and people might think better vote for powerful party (Labour) instead of making coalition wrangle. Remember its all the same Labour or SNP in terms of social issues (important for 90% of voters as Scotland is a country relying on benefits). Labour guarantee stronger guarantee for future benefits and if I was typical Scot I would vote for Labour as benefits would be assured, SNP is a gamble, nothing is guaranteed - majority knows leaving UK means bankruptcy. All in all SNP will not do so well I would dare to say they will lose with Labour even in Scotland, it is like UKIP taking whole England in bigger scale. Maybe but my god no way in just one term! They have to develop gradually not to take 69 seats comparing to just six, Labour is very well planted there have a lot of traditional voters SNP is not serious for them as they got a kicking in 2014

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Buy total Scotland Liberal Democrat seats at 2.2 with Spreadex I've taken this bet for the following reasons: Low risk with a modest known downside (stake whatever you don't mind losing x 2.2) SPIN currently go 2.5-3.2 Have taken account of Idtips' views in this thread Have done some searching related to their prospects in general and, specifically, in Scotland. There was little to discourage such a modest buy, most was fairly neutral and there was an interesting article re the extent to which the party is focusing campaigning on the Scottish seats they currently hold. Even more so than with my general betting, I'd advise caution to anyone considering following, but I find myself fancying a low risk interest or two in proceedings on Thursday.

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Re: UK General Election 2015 What is the reason they will be ,miles ahead'? Because media are saying so? I would not be surprised if Labour takes over 40 seats of Scotland how can be SNP so dominant all of sudden? ,Silent majority' will vote in a way much more encouraging for Labour than whistleblowers suggest. I said Scottish seats are a gamble and my private but I admit cheeky estimation is Labour can well beat SNP. I just don't get how SNP became so popular all of sudden especially after they lost their key issue? I know part of the story is total Labour indolence there but anyway.... F. Ed Milliband PM after election is my 20/10 bet here . This is simple. Cameron or Milliband. 1. Cameron promised EU referendum. 2. EU referendum means UK out of EU 1000% and there is no power which can mislead people and trick them into staying in EU. 3. Some shadow power which controls City no way will allow 1 (and 2 simultaneously). 4. The best way to avoid is Milliband PM and this is the next bellby for 'these powerful people'. If Cameron wins they would have to make excuse how not to give a referendum as no way it will be allowed. That would have mean Conservative Party folded and UKIP taking full power in 2020. By that time EU may be dissolved. Hopefully everything is clear and simply enough here .

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Further to my post yesterday in which I wondered if you could use the SPIN estimate of SNP seats now at 47 and use that to estimate the chance on the fixed odds. eg average chance is 47/59 = .7966. You then stick that in a binomial. That wont actually work since you would want the chance on each of the 59 "trials" to be the same. Whereas here the chances vary between 1.01 certs like Dundee East up to very unlikely in Orkney at 5. So I tried another way to estimate the total by taking best SNP price in each seat. Turn that into a percentage and then add them. That comes to 45.9 seats predicted. So again it's pointing that there might be some value in going under 51.5. B365 have cut their 1/1 on that to 4/5 but can still get 10/11 at Paddy Power. These are the ten seats (defending party listed) with the poorest SNP chance with best and worst price to win seat.

East Lothian Scotland Labour 1.57 1.5 0.6369 0.6667
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland Labour 1.66 1.5 0.6024 0.6667
Dunfermline and West Fife Scotland Labour 1.83 1.61 0.5464 0.6211
East Renfrewshire Scotland Labour 1.9 1.66 0.5263 0.6024
Edinburgh South Scotland Labour 2 1.75 0.5000 0.5714
Dumfries and Galloway Scotland Labour 2 1.66 0.5000 0.6024
Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland Labour 2.2 1.83 0.4545 0.5464
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Scotland Liberal Democrats 2.38 2.25 0.4202 0.4444
Glasgow North East Scotland Labour 2.62 2.25 0.3817 0.4444
Orkney and Shetland Scotland Liberal Democrats 5 4 0.2000 0.2500

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Sorry I thought all the time Scotland has 69 seats in Westminster, while they have only 59. While line for SNP is only 53,5 it makes me even more confident. Lib Dems will get 4--6 seats with some certain areas like Orkney and Highlands are their bankers areas while Labour. SNP is no threat for Lib Dems. Nick Clegg is a threat for Lib Dems. SNP is Labour problem but still think it will be proportion 2 to 1 in Scotland SNP vs Labour max (if not reverse). There will be definitely some upsets where SNP candidates will be beaten by Labour

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Is anywhere possible to play winning seats in constituencies in an accumulator? Betfred no way. I am just asking as I can build some accumulator. How can Betfred claim events are not independent? How Kensington winner influences Rochdale winner? Ridiculous, Betfred explain in a joke way they mumble when I asked. Whatever.... is it possible anywhere?

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Re: UK General Election 2015

Is anywhere possible to play winning seats in constituencies in an accumulator? Betfred no way. I am just asking as I can build some accumulator. How can Betfred claim events are not independent? How Kensington winner influences Rochdale winner? Ridiculous, Betfred explain in a joke way they mumble when I asked. Whatever.... is it possible anywhere?
I would have thought if one party does better than expected across the country as a whole, then that will be reflected in different seats - hence the markets for individual seat elections are related.

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Re: UK General Election 2015 I live in West Midlands area and will analyse local seats tomorrow. Valerie Vaz is a banker in Walsall South my constituency - odds like 1,25 but still. Big pity we can not do accumulators anywhere, even with reduced odds. What is a point of betting singles at 1,01 when margin is like 10%? I see only Labour electorate around :rollin and they get usually more than polls suggest. 2001, 1997 landslide Labour win, 2005 incapable Michael Howard got spanked, Tories were well beaten in three successive elections and in 2010 it is only Labour lost because they have to lose. That election was not won by Cameron, many leaders would do much better considering 'political winds'. After winning election Cameron and Co ignored economy Conservative Party became actually Liberal Party, focusing in rubbish issues like gay marriages instead to take care of working people and took potential Labour electorate away. This was going on for 2/3 of term, then anti-EU rhetoric started (only thanks to UKIP rise in 2012) and now ballons are blown about illusion of economic miracle. This is only manipulated inflated data and statistical tricks, people know how life looks and they will be against Cameron overwhelmingly. I just don't understand how single issue party can sweep political scene in whole scottish part of the UK in just a months. This takes generations, some people vote for sixty years the same party and all of sudden they change minds? Labour is better guarantee for social benefits for Scotland as they are way more powerful while SNP may mean risk of another referendum which annoys people as majority of Scots will be against independence. SNP is annoying for them

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Re: UK General Election 2015 I agree I am confident. Not ignorant. Maybe disrespective. Just like Jose Mourinho maybe not so famous LOL but I am his fan and love his style I don't remember ANYTHING about SNP programme apart from independence - all the rest is copy of Labour - benefits, benefits, benefits from London and 'Scottish vote(for benefits) will be heard' . BTW it denies each other as pulling out from UK means total economic disaster for Scotland and Greek scenario unless they find mysterious new sponsor like Mr Putin (and we know Yankees will not allow). :p Scottisg Parliament and Scottish seats in Westminster is completely, completely different story 2001 scottish election turnout 50%, while general election has turnout around 70%. Guess how it influence result? I will give a clue: big parties will get more. Anyone thought after 2014 Euro Elections UKIP will get 30% in General Election 2015? No. Everyone knew no way this will happen, small parties (and single issue) do well in by elections or in locals when turnout is much lower. In big elections big two will get more. If SNP are so dominant why people did not vote for independence as this is their key issue (and only). Because turnout was 90% and majority of people went to oppose 'these mad men'. Vote for SNP is a risky for silent, much more reasonable voters and they will go if needed to stop SNP. SNP is an own goal to majority and they will stop them

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Whatever I am from is least important here Mr Ferguson ;) I represent English point of view and I don't hesitate to name and address things clearly like even some Englishmen are too gentle to say or they do not understand some things. Scotland bankrupt and bought back by England for a fraction of its worth nine months after secession is undisputable fact. Who will pay for your prescriptions, universities and extensive care? 50 dollars per barrel oil? LOL I guess SNP is scared of this scenario and prays not to exit UK. Just as Cameron prays not to exit EU - or the people behid and steering him. I think you are extremely biased towards SNP. Of course Conservatives are almost non existent in Scotland (maybe 3-6 %) but the big party for big elections is Labour and it has been for years. The thing is they have extremely uncompetent and incapable leadership there. They are just a regional branch of the Labour. Anyway so you are placing big over for SNP? What is your balance here then?

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Re: UK General Election 2015 I think it's fair to say (in the style of Jimmy Tarbuck) that we have a difference of opinion! At least we won't have long to wait to find out how things turn out. Whilst Idtip's views are somewhat at odds with most estimates I've seen (understatement) he could still show a profit from his bets without being entirely correct in the finer details. In terms of my buy of Scottish Lib Dem seats at 2.2, that's now up to 2.7 so at least the market's moved the right way! Scottish Labour seats are now 9 to buy rather than 8.5, but still some margin for anyone who expects the likely SNP romp not to materialise! I noticed earlier in the week that PP went 16/1 for 20 or more Labour seats in Scotland and that's been cut to 12/1. Just in case pigs do fly the other side of the border I've had a small interest in them getting >20 at around 25/1 on Betfair by dutching the upper 3 bands they quote prices for. That's decidedly more in hope than expectation.

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Big day in politics today and I am all the way on 'Ed Milliband PM after election'. This is the biggest bet in my entire history as I am 99% confident Cameron will be defeated today. Pick Ed Milband PM after election (please bear in mind and be careful - do not take bet Ed Miliband next PM as this may be settled in five years. Here is the extensive study of british politics if anyone wants to read: And some article from my regional newspaper: http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2015/05/06/john-hipwood-why-i-long-for-the-way-we-were/ Please bear in mind three quotes. 1. Nicola Sturgeon, the current SNP leader, was just eight years old and, 36 years on, is now hoping her party will come out top of the pile in as many as 50 constituencies. I say ‘hope’ because the largely silent majority who voted against the break-up of the UK last year might yet have a quiet say in things tomorrow. 2. Senior Tories, when not blowing their own trumpet, have been keen to blow Nicola’s bagpipes. If the SNP crush Labour north of the border, Mr Cameron has a much better chance of keeping his furnitureicon1.pngat 10 Downing Street. 3. In any case, past evidence has shown that the electorate are much more reluctant to reward an administration for good economic news than they are to punish those deemed responsible for the opposite. If I am from abroad this is British journalist placed three important quotes I fully agree and I guess this is clear English unline mine one. So conclusions: 1. SNP is pushed to the limits throughout the media, especially Murdoch ones and this is baloon which is deemed to diminish Labour chances for overall majority and maybe his chances for minority government. They will get much less than it is predicted, Labour is 'the largely silent majority who voted against the break-up of the UK last year might yet have a quiet say in things tomorrow.' 2. In the marginal seats Labour will sweep the Tories, if let's say there is most 40 unpredictable seats Labour should take something like 35 of them and where polls say this is 'too close to predict' Labour will take 85-90% of those seats. There are many of them in my region - West Midlands and I will place bets for specific seats later today'. Considering I live here all I can say Labour all over despite I AM NOT THEIR SUPPORTER IN ANY WAY BUT I OBSERVE THE LIFE. 3. Labour or Conservatives - it does not matter, they and also Lib Dems are only chess figure, someone is steering from the back side where this country will go (Bilderberg group - no matter Peter Mandelson or Ken Clarke will steer the wheel http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22843943 hahaha, and this power says 'BRITAIN MUST STAY IN THE EU' Cameron, Miliband or society have nothing to say here. This is enough to say Cameron will be booted after this election cause he promised EU referendum = Certain EU exit. This is the backgroud of all my bets as Miliband is a guarantee Britain will stay in the EU for next 5-7 years. Cameron has to promise referendum even if it costs him PM as he has really nothing to say when it comes to serious politics. It is all from behind. Specific bets later today will be just outcome of this root motto. But Cameron out is 99% tomorrow.

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Re: UK General Election 2015 F. Stevenage constituency winner Labour 2,37 Conservative candidate got elected thanks to national swing in 2010 rather this own personality which is close to nothing. He made some media presences which paint his picture as an operative local but everything including Lister Hospital funds were formality as it was all thanks to his boys were in power. I predict swing there in 201 into Labour - easy G. Redditch - Karen Lumley won thanks to national swing AND Jacqui Smith affair (her husband bought porn movies and declared as public expenses). Jacqui Smith ws horribly double humiliated there and she had to step down and be forgotten. New new Labour candidate, I guess all the standard buzz and Labour to win here 4,33 goes for me. This is quite affluen area and winning by Labour is absolutely not certain but if Labour won there in 2005 that should be enough or very closely enough to win in 2015. Karen Lumley did more than little to retain her seat .Red card from me to her H. Dudley North - Labour win is a banker 1,25 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/afzal-amin-quits-conservative-candidate-edl-plot-allegations If Labour won in 2010 (ok slightly) they will sweep the Tories here especially after shaken Tory candidate by EDL deal affair. I guess they stood some no namer, maybe even prachuter but this is certain Labour win. I. Walsall North Labour win (1,28). The same story, Labour won 2010 so they win today with swing into their side I know how life looks here. Sandwell all three seats to Labour, no doubt about this but odds rubbish J. Wolverhampton South West Labour 1,25 In general even if Labour would have name a horse or rabbit as their candidate in West Midlands, this would be a winner. Of course there are some places like Stratford Upon Avon, Solihull or Sutton Couldfield where Conservatives will retain seats but those are affluen areas, let's call them 'Surrey of West Midlands'. K. Cannock Chase - Labour win 1,57. The same case as Stevenage - swing in 2010 into Conservatives. L. Norwich North - Labour 2.10. There are some seats where Tory candidates used national swing in 2010 and can be easily beaten back by Labour even if they put a horse. Pseudopersonalities like Justine Greening or Chloe Smith are just women without political background and experience thrown into deep water and got hard if they thought life in politics is as easy as life in Pricewaterhouse Coopers or Delloite etc. Got burned and Chloe Smith and Justine Greening from Putney can be grilled in a minute and they will have hard to defend Norwich North and I wonder why Justine Greening is 1,01 in Putney. Maybe Greening will win but Labour will come lose. Look how Jeremy Paxman grills such sweeties

If you watch this you will see that at closer look Norwich North will not be defended even if Chloe Smith is in government

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Re: UK General Election 2015 It is odd that the polls (OK not reliable) are suggesting it is neck and neck between the top 2: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll But the bookies have conservatives ahead, bet365 going 3/1 for labour to get more seats than the Tories and the Tory seats over/under line is 10 seats higher than Labour. Who's more likely to be right, the polls or the books?

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Re: UK General Election 2015

It is odd that the polls (OK not reliable) are suggesting it is neck and neck between the top 2: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/07/labour-one-point-lead-tories-final-icm-poll But the bookies have conservatives ahead, bet365 going 3/1 for labour to get more seats than the Tories and the Tory seats over/under line is 10 seats higher than Labour. Who's more likely to be right, the polls or the books?
I find politics baffling at the best of times but I would certainly trust the bookies ahead of any poll..

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Re: UK General Election 2015 Election bets : Nick Clegg to lose his Sheffield Hallam seat to Labour 4/1 paddy power They say that Cleggs seat looks vulnerable and at these odds for Labour to win is pretty good and a number of Lib Dem seats could go tonight Plaid Cymru to win Ceredigion from Lib Dems 5/4 paddy power They are so determined to win a seats they are targeting this seat as it is only seat the Lib dems have in Wales Lib Dems to win Ross Skye and Lochaber 11/4 paddy power Charles Kennedy looks like he could lose his seat but he has held it for over twenty years and has still got a lot of support so it will be close SNP to win Dumfries and Galloway 10/11 paddy power The SNP seem to be winning nearly every seat in Scotland and this one is quite close so a few extra votes and they could win this one as it is Labour seat Jim Murphy to lose his Renfrewshire East seat to the SNP 10/11 paddy power The last few weeks his support has not as good as in recent weeks because the Scots dont like Labour in Scotland so they are switching to the SNP In play betting : Conservative minority 5/4 paddy power Any coalition with a Northern Irish party 7/1 paddy power It looks like it could be one these two bets that will happen as the exit polls suggest

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