2015 Flat Horses to Follow

[arsenalfh]

Haven't done anything like this before but I thought it would be a bit of fun to follow some horses through the flat season who I think could progress further for new trainers, over different trips, ground or just improve in general with age. The list is made up of interesting horses flagged by Timeform and ATRs stable tours as well as runners who caught my eye. The horses are hopefully good enough to be winning races in and around group class and I tried to stay away from the top 2 year olds and classic contenders. Bets will be 1pt Win or 0.5pts each-way. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 900, align: left]

[TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD]Table 1: UK and Irish 3 Year Olds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Agnes Stewart [/TD] [TD]Won the Group 2 May Hill Stakes and she ran a credible 2nd in a slowly run Fillies Mile at Newmarket which wouldn't have suited. She's a filly I really like but doesn't strike me as particularly quick and for me doesn't have the pace to win the Guineas. A step up in trip will be the making of her looking at her performances as a 2 yo and I can see her as a big Oaks contender. Will head straight to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Anthem Alexander

[/TD] [TD]Beat Tiggy Wiggy the first time they met but lost out in two subsequent starts. However she was withdrawn from a couple of races before heading to the Lowther so preparation wasn't ideal and she got within a length of Tiggy Wiggy next time in the Cheveley Park. Reported to have developed well physically over the winter and she could possibly improve past the Hannon filly.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Basateen

[/TD] [TD]Was hugely impressive when winning a maiden on his second start despite running while running very green. He then pulled hard in the Acomb but only narrowly lost out to two high quality opponents who were more at home over 7f. The form of that race has worked out well and Jamaica who is one of the Derby favourites was also behind him in 4th. By Teofilo from the Galileo family he should improve when stepped up to a mile.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Consort [/TD] [TD]Made all and quickened clear impressively on his one and only start. That race has worked out exceptionally with 5 winners (3 next time out) and that list includes Mubtaahij who won so well at the Dubai Carnival and is best priced 12/1 for the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Stoute he looks a horse who could progress nicely.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Convey [/TD] [TD]The way Convey quickened 5L clear of the field in the final furlong on his debut screams of a horse with a lot of class. By Dansili and trained by Stoute you would be very disappointed if he didn't go on to much better things.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Endless Drama

[/TD] [TD]Won maiden easily to decent AOB colt and subsequently bought by Qatar racing. Cut in the ground that day and sire's runners do particularly well in those conditions. Looks a very good prospect and one to watch but jury is out whether these Lope de Vega horses can show their best on quick ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Fadayyil

[/TD] [TD]Only beaten 1L by Lucida on her last start when running green. Ran keen and looked to have idled when hitting the front before rallying back. Completely unexposed potentially a top class filly. I think she's a big contender for the 1000 Guineas.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Father Frost

[/TD] [TD]AOB says he's their favourite by Rip Van Winkle but had a few setbacks last year. Looks like one who could have some potential and his trip will likely be a mile.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Flaming Spear [/TD] [TD]Won the same maiden nicely as the The Grey Gatsby for the same trainer Kevin Ryan. The ground was quick that day so possibly even more to come as he's by Lope de Vega. 99p Timeform.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Golden Horn [/TD] [TD]Slowly into stride and ran green when he hit the front. He showed a good attitude to hold off the 2nd place finisher who is highly rated and they pulled well clear of the field so he looks a classy performer. Could potentially be very good for Gosden.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Hail The Hero [/TD] [TD]Didn't seemed to be fancied on debut going by O'Meara's comments pre race but won well going away at the finish. Looks like one who can improve for someone who seems to have a knack of improving horses coming from other trainers.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Jolievitesse [/TD] [TD]Has Group level pedigree out of a Group 1 winner who placed in an Arc. Karl Burke fancies him to improve as a 3 yo and thinks he could step into Group class. Should be better when stepped up to a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Kodi Bear [/TD] [TD]Has strong form behind The Wow Signal and Listed win looks good as well before running with credit behind Belardo in the Dewhurst. Cox rates him incredibly highly and he could be an underrated 3 yo who could mix it with the big guns.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Malabar[/TD] [TD]Like Agnes StewartI think this filly needs a step up in trip to show her true potential. She was 4th in the Moyglare staying on just behind Cursory Glance, Lucida and Found before contesting the Marcel Boussac running on again to finish 4th. She doesn't seem to quite have the pace to challenge the best over a mile but looks one who could be a contender for the Oaks provided she trains on as a 3 yo.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Qualify [/TD] [TD]AOB admitted in hindsight they were running her very wrong before she won a Group 3 at the Curragh from off the pace. By Fastnet Rock she is expected to improve with age and connections are hopeful she can develop into a Group 1 filly and had the confidence to go for a Breeders Cup race.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Sir Isaac Newton

[/TD] [TD]3.6M gns purchase. Just pipped by Weld's highly rated Zawraq on debut but AOB felt he really needed more time to mature before hitting the racecourse. However they were eager to see him run and he pulled well clear of the field with Zawraq so the form looks strong. He wants quick ground and is described as a quick Galileo who wouldn't definitely stay 1m 4f. Hints of Australia?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Smuggler's Cove [/TD] [TD]Ran the last 3f at Dundalk in 33.5s and reported to have developed well over the winter. Connections feel he is better than what he showed in the Dewhurst and that run at Dundalk was certainly eye catching. Could be one of AOB's colts that have gone a bit under the radar.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

The Wow Signal

[/TD] [TD]Beat Hootenanny in the Prix Morny who went on to win impressively at the Breeders Cup and also won the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Flopped as favourite at Longchamp but scoped badly after the race and can be forgiven as that certainly was a run too bad to be true. Seems to have become a bit of a forgotten horse.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Zawraq [/TD] [TD]Beat AOB's highly rated Sir Isaac Newton in a maiden and Weld describes him as his best 3 yo. He also describes him as laid back and looks more of a Derby horse with a bit of stamina in his pedigree.[/TD] [/TR]

[/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 900, align: left] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD]Table 2: UK and Irish 4 Year Olds+[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Arod[/TD] [TD]Finished only 3/4L behind The Grey Gatsby in the Dante before finishing 4th in the Derby. He still races a little green as he was keen and hanging down the straight in the Juddmonte but has potential and looks like a horse who could definitely improve as a 4 yo.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Al Kazeem[/TD] [TD]Took him a while to run off the cobwebs after proving subfertile at stud but ran a cracker on heavy ground in the Champion Stakes. He proved he has retained his ability and remains one to watch.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Brooch[/TD] [TD]Weld reports her to have done well over the winter and believes she can develop into a Group 1 filly after winning a Group 3 towards the end of last season. She's unexposed and unbeaten in 3 starts and going by the vibes from the yard sounds like one who could be very good for K Abdullah.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Cougar Mountain[/TD] [TD]Was 5th in the July Cup only 3L behind Slade Power on only his second start. AOB says in hindsight he was campaigned poorly as the July Cup was too soon and he shouldn't have ran in the Nunthorpe or Sprint Cup. Should improve with age by Fastnet Rock and wants fast ground. Looks very talented based on his July Cup run. Will likely be chanced at a mile but could easily stay sprinting.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Eagle Top[/TD] [TD]Beat Adelaide easily at Royal Ascot who went on to win a Group 1 in Australia. Also finished 4th behind Taghrooda in the King George which was another very good run. Unexposed with only 4 starts and looks like a 4 yo with real class for Gosden.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Free Eagle[/TD] [TD]Ran 1m 2f in the same time as The Grey Gatsby at Irish Champions Weekend on only third start which puts him up there as one of the best 3 yos from last year. Was once a favourite for the Derby and was only 2L behind Noble Mission on heavy ground which Weld previously stated he hates. 128p Timeform and could be something really special.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Kingston Hill[/TD] [TD]Ran some really good races in a bit of a disrupted season waiting for the right ground. Stays really well but I get the impression 1m 4f on soft is ideal for him. Finished 4th in the Arc on quick ground and would be interesting if he gets some cut in the ground in the same race this year. Unfortunately he'll have to overcome a setback.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Lightning Moon[/TD] [TD]Showed a really good attitude to win Group 3 on only 3rd start against older and more experienced rivals. Hasn't been seen since but is unbeaten and can progress further. All 3 wins have been with cut in the ground but nothing to suggest he can't show the same ability on a quicker surface.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Mondialiste[/TD] [TD]Weak in the market before running in the Lincoln but ran really well on debut for O'Meara to finish 2nd. Placed in Group 1 in France and can be expected to improve in time with this trainer. Seems to like a bit of cut in the ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Muthmir[/TD] [TD]Broke the track record in the Portland despite stumbling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running winning easily. Wants quick ground and looks to have the potential to mix it in at the highest level.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Pearl Secret[/TD] [TD]Record on soft ground is 3 from 4 and the defeat was a 1/2L loss to Hot Streak giving 8lbs in a Group 2. L'Abbeye run was much better than the result suggested as he travelled sweetly and looked to have the pace to make significant headway but was blocked off twice from off the pace. That was on quick ground and he looks very underrated at this stage. I think he can get involved in some big prizes particularly if there's cut in the ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]The Grey Gatsby[/TD] [TD]Beat Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes and also won the French Derby. Ran a good race behind the highly regarded Solow in Dubai over a trip shorter than ideal on his reappearance. High class but also seems to be a horse that the public never really take to and we still may get some nice prices.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 900, align: left] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD]Table 3: French Horses[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Avenir Certain[/TD] [TD]Unbeaten and impressive before the trainer chanced his arm in the Arc over a longer trip. He raced prominently that day which wouldn't have suited but travelled really well and was right in the mix heading for home. Unfortunately he didn't see out the trip but he looks a top horse over 1m to 1m 2f.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Dolniya[/TD] [TD]Showed improvement to finish 5th in the Arc before beating Flintshire in a prep for the Dubai Carnival. She then extended her advantage over Flintshire in Dubai under a fantastic ride by Soumillon. She's a big filly who is progressing nicely and looks a huge contender for the Arc if she gets her quick ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Ectot[/TD] [TD]Has had his problems but quickened impressively around the field in the Prix Niel before idling and possibly feeling the effects of a long break just holding on to win. Flopped in the Arc when well fancied but the way this horse quickened in the Prix Niel suggests to me that he still has big potential. Perhaps we'll see the best of him this year with some proper preparation under his belt.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Ervedya[/TD] [TD]Broke quickly and raced keenly forcing Soumillon to circle the field and make most of the running from a wide draw in the Marcel Boussac but was travelling best approaching the finish. She didn't have enough to hold off Found possibly because she did too much early on. She also quickened clear before snapping back on the bridle impressively in a Group 3 and finished 3rd behind The Wow Signal and Hootenanny in the Prix Morny. Ervedya reappeared in the Prix Imprudence winning easily showing she has trained on as a 3 yo and looks set for the French Guineas.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Full Mast[/TD] [TD]Won the Jean-Lucr Lagardere after Gleneagles was disqualified which is top class form with the O'Brien colt clear favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He's a big colt who still runs a little green so to get so close to the more experienced Gleneagles was very impressive.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Prince Gibraltar[/TD] [TD]Group 1 winner who was favourite for the French Derby but met trouble in running finishing a good 3rd behind The Grey Gatsby. He then was beaten a short neck in another Group 1, the Grand Prix de Paris before going off a massive 28/1 for the Arc. He ran well that day finishing 7th less than 5L off Treve in a race that's working out well. He stays well and looks to be better with cut in the ground. Possibly a horse we haven't seen the best of.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Solow[/TD] [TD]Freddy Head said that he is one of the best he's ever trained and that puts him in illustrious company. He had a slow start to his career but is now progressing nicely as a 5 yo and has won 5 on the bounce. His win in Meydan over The Grey Gatsby was impressive and he looks set to contest the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Territories[/TD] [TD]He's now been beaten twice by Full Mast over 7f and looks to be short of a little speed as he's been closest at the finish on both occasions. He looks like one who will definitely benefit the step up to a mile and possibly a mile and a quarter. Could be interesting for the French Derby.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Treve[/TD] [TD]Not much to stay about this one. I can't believe she managed to win the Arc like that last year on ground too quick for her after a season full of problems and with the race the aim again this year you would think she has a great chance. If it rains she may be unstoppable for Longchamp's show piece event and it's already set up to be a cracker.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow 12:50 Maisons-Laiffitte First one out is Ervedya. She just lost out to the high class pair of The Wow Signal and Hootenanny in the Prix Morny over 6f and then ran a great race behind Found in the Marcel Boussac who is clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She travelled best that day but couldn't find enough to hold the O'Brien filly perhaps because she ran keen from a wide draw and gave Soumillon no option but to make most of the running. It was a highly encouraging performance and she has the beating of most of these through a few form lines. The wildcard is the unbeaten Criquette Head newcomer Fontanelice who comes from Italy. Vibes are encouraging but it's a tough ask to beat the J-C Rouget trained Ervedya in a race he targets with his best fillies winning 3 out of the last 6 renewals. She shouldn't have problems on heavy ground on previous form and the 6/4 available on Paddy Power looks a fair price. However I'm up early in the morning so I'll wait and see if any bookies are willing to lay 13/8 or 7/4.