2015 Flat Horses to Follow

[arsenalfh]

Haven't done anything like this before but I thought it would be a bit of fun to follow some horses through the flat season who I think could progress further for new trainers, over different trips, ground or just improve in general with age. The list is made up of interesting horses flagged by Timeform and ATRs stable tours as well as runners who caught my eye. The horses are hopefully good enough to be winning races in and around group class and I tried to stay away from the top 2 year olds and classic contenders. Bets will be 1pt Win or 0.5pts each-way. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 900, align: left]

[TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD]Table 1: UK and Irish 3 Year Olds[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Agnes Stewart [/TD] [TD]Won the Group 2 May Hill Stakes and she ran a credible 2nd in a slowly run Fillies Mile at Newmarket which wouldn't have suited. She's a filly I really like but doesn't strike me as particularly quick and for me doesn't have the pace to win the Guineas. A step up in trip will be the making of her looking at her performances as a 2 yo and I can see her as a big Oaks contender. Will head straight to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Anthem Alexander

[/TD] [TD]Beat Tiggy Wiggy the first time they met but lost out in two subsequent starts. However she was withdrawn from a couple of races before heading to the Lowther so preparation wasn't ideal and she got within a length of Tiggy Wiggy next time in the Cheveley Park. Reported to have developed well physically over the winter and she could possibly improve past the Hannon filly.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Basateen

[/TD] [TD]Was hugely impressive when winning a maiden on his second start despite running while running very green. He then pulled hard in the Acomb but only narrowly lost out to two high quality opponents who were more at home over 7f. The form of that race has worked out well and Jamaica who is one of the Derby favourites was also behind him in 4th. By Teofilo from the Galileo family he should improve when stepped up to a mile.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Consort [/TD] [TD]Made all and quickened clear impressively on his one and only start. That race has worked out exceptionally with 5 winners (3 next time out) and that list includes Mubtaahij who won so well at the Dubai Carnival and is best priced 12/1 for the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Stoute he looks a horse who could progress nicely.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Convey [/TD] [TD]The way Convey quickened 5L clear of the field in the final furlong on his debut screams of a horse with a lot of class. By Dansili and trained by Stoute you would be very disappointed if he didn't go on to much better things.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Endless Drama

[/TD] [TD]Won maiden easily to decent AOB colt and subsequently bought by Qatar racing. Cut in the ground that day and sire's runners do particularly well in those conditions. Looks a very good prospect and one to watch but jury is out whether these Lope de Vega horses can show their best on quick ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Fadayyil

[/TD] [TD]Only beaten 1L by Lucida on her last start when running green. Ran keen and looked to have idled when hitting the front before rallying back. Completely unexposed potentially a top class filly. I think she's a big contender for the 1000 Guineas.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Father Frost

[/TD] [TD]AOB says he's their favourite by Rip Van Winkle but had a few setbacks last year. Looks like one who could have some potential and his trip will likely be a mile.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Flaming Spear [/TD] [TD]Won the same maiden nicely as the The Grey Gatsby for the same trainer Kevin Ryan. The ground was quick that day so possibly even more to come as he's by Lope de Vega. 99p Timeform.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Golden Horn [/TD] [TD]Slowly into stride and ran green when he hit the front. He showed a good attitude to hold off the 2nd place finisher who is highly rated and they pulled well clear of the field so he looks a classy performer. Could potentially be very good for Gosden.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Hail The Hero [/TD] [TD]Didn't seemed to be fancied on debut going by O'Meara's comments pre race but won well going away at the finish. Looks like one who can improve for someone who seems to have a knack of improving horses coming from other trainers.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Jolievitesse [/TD] [TD]Has Group level pedigree out of a Group 1 winner who placed in an Arc. Karl Burke fancies him to improve as a 3 yo and thinks he could step into Group class. Should be better when stepped up to a mile and a quarter or a mile and a half.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Kodi Bear [/TD] [TD]Has strong form behind The Wow Signal and Listed win looks good as well before running with credit behind Belardo in the Dewhurst. Cox rates him incredibly highly and he could be an underrated 3 yo who could mix it with the big guns.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Malabar[/TD] [TD]Like Agnes StewartI think this filly needs a step up in trip to show her true potential. She was 4th in the Moyglare staying on just behind Cursory Glance, Lucida and Found before contesting the Marcel Boussac running on again to finish 4th. She doesn't seem to quite have the pace to challenge the best over a mile but looks one who could be a contender for the Oaks provided she trains on as a 3 yo.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Qualify [/TD] [TD]AOB admitted in hindsight they were running her very wrong before she won a Group 3 at the Curragh from off the pace. By Fastnet Rock she is expected to improve with age and connections are hopeful she can develop into a Group 1 filly and had the confidence to go for a Breeders Cup race.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

Sir Isaac Newton

[/TD] [TD]3.6M gns purchase. Just pipped by Weld's highly rated Zawraq on debut but AOB felt he really needed more time to mature before hitting the racecourse. However they were eager to see him run and he pulled well clear of the field with Zawraq so the form looks strong. He wants quick ground and is described as a quick Galileo who wouldn't definitely stay 1m 4f. Hints of Australia?[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Smuggler's Cove [/TD] [TD]Ran the last 3f at Dundalk in 33.5s and reported to have developed well over the winter. Connections feel he is better than what he showed in the Dewhurst and that run at Dundalk was certainly eye catching. Could be one of AOB's colts that have gone a bit under the radar.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]

The Wow Signal

[/TD] [TD]Beat Hootenanny in the Prix Morny who went on to win impressively at the Breeders Cup and also won the Coventry at Royal Ascot. Flopped as favourite at Longchamp but scoped badly after the race and can be forgiven as that certainly was a run too bad to be true. Seems to have become a bit of a forgotten horse.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Zawraq [/TD] [TD]Beat AOB's highly rated Sir Isaac Newton in a maiden and Weld describes him as his best 3 yo. He also describes him as laid back and looks more of a Derby horse with a bit of stamina in his pedigree.[/TD] [/TR]

[/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 900, align: left] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD]Table 2: UK and Irish 4 Year Olds+[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Arod[/TD] [TD]Finished only 3/4L behind The Grey Gatsby in the Dante before finishing 4th in the Derby. He still races a little green as he was keen and hanging down the straight in the Juddmonte but has potential and looks like a horse who could definitely improve as a 4 yo.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Al Kazeem[/TD] [TD]Took him a while to run off the cobwebs after proving subfertile at stud but ran a cracker on heavy ground in the Champion Stakes. He proved he has retained his ability and remains one to watch.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Brooch[/TD] [TD]Weld reports her to have done well over the winter and believes she can develop into a Group 1 filly after winning a Group 3 towards the end of last season. She's unexposed and unbeaten in 3 starts and going by the vibes from the yard sounds like one who could be very good for K Abdullah.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Cougar Mountain[/TD] [TD]Was 5th in the July Cup only 3L behind Slade Power on only his second start. AOB says in hindsight he was campaigned poorly as the July Cup was too soon and he shouldn't have ran in the Nunthorpe or Sprint Cup. Should improve with age by Fastnet Rock and wants fast ground. Looks very talented based on his July Cup run. Will likely be chanced at a mile but could easily stay sprinting.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Eagle Top[/TD] [TD]Beat Adelaide easily at Royal Ascot who went on to win a Group 1 in Australia. Also finished 4th behind Taghrooda in the King George which was another very good run. Unexposed with only 4 starts and looks like a 4 yo with real class for Gosden.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Free Eagle[/TD] [TD]Ran 1m 2f in the same time as The Grey Gatsby at Irish Champions Weekend on only third start which puts him up there as one of the best 3 yos from last year. Was once a favourite for the Derby and was only 2L behind Noble Mission on heavy ground which Weld previously stated he hates. 128p Timeform and could be something really special.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Kingston Hill[/TD] [TD]Ran some really good races in a bit of a disrupted season waiting for the right ground. Stays really well but I get the impression 1m 4f on soft is ideal for him. Finished 4th in the Arc on quick ground and would be interesting if he gets some cut in the ground in the same race this year. Unfortunately he'll have to overcome a setback.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Lightning Moon[/TD] [TD]Showed a really good attitude to win Group 3 on only 3rd start against older and more experienced rivals. Hasn't been seen since but is unbeaten and can progress further. All 3 wins have been with cut in the ground but nothing to suggest he can't show the same ability on a quicker surface.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Mondialiste[/TD] [TD]Weak in the market before running in the Lincoln but ran really well on debut for O'Meara to finish 2nd. Placed in Group 1 in France and can be expected to improve in time with this trainer. Seems to like a bit of cut in the ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Muthmir[/TD] [TD]Broke the track record in the Portland despite stumbling out of the stalls and meeting trouble in running winning easily. Wants quick ground and looks to have the potential to mix it in at the highest level.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Pearl Secret[/TD] [TD]Record on soft ground is 3 from 4 and the defeat was a 1/2L loss to Hot Streak giving 8lbs in a Group 2. L'Abbeye run was much better than the result suggested as he travelled sweetly and looked to have the pace to make significant headway but was blocked off twice from off the pace. That was on quick ground and he looks very underrated at this stage. I think he can get involved in some big prizes particularly if there's cut in the ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]The Grey Gatsby[/TD] [TD]Beat Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes and also won the French Derby. Ran a good race behind the highly regarded Solow in Dubai over a trip shorter than ideal on his reappearance. High class but also seems to be a horse that the public never really take to and we still may get some nice prices.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 900, align: left] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD]Table 3: French Horses[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Avenir Certain[/TD] [TD]Unbeaten and impressive before the trainer chanced his arm in the Arc over a longer trip. He raced prominently that day which wouldn't have suited but travelled really well and was right in the mix heading for home. Unfortunately he didn't see out the trip but he looks a top horse over 1m to 1m 2f.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Dolniya[/TD] [TD]Showed improvement to finish 5th in the Arc before beating Flintshire in a prep for the Dubai Carnival. She then extended her advantage over Flintshire in Dubai under a fantastic ride by Soumillon. She's a big filly who is progressing nicely and looks a huge contender for the Arc if she gets her quick ground.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Ectot[/TD] [TD]Has had his problems but quickened impressively around the field in the Prix Niel before idling and possibly feeling the effects of a long break just holding on to win. Flopped in the Arc when well fancied but the way this horse quickened in the Prix Niel suggests to me that he still has big potential. Perhaps we'll see the best of him this year with some proper preparation under his belt.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Ervedya[/TD] [TD]Broke quickly and raced keenly forcing Soumillon to circle the field and make most of the running from a wide draw in the Marcel Boussac but was travelling best approaching the finish. She didn't have enough to hold off Found possibly because she did too much early on. She also quickened clear before snapping back on the bridle impressively in a Group 3 and finished 3rd behind The Wow Signal and Hootenanny in the Prix Morny. Ervedya reappeared in the Prix Imprudence winning easily showing she has trained on as a 3 yo and looks set for the French Guineas.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Full Mast[/TD] [TD]Won the Jean-Lucr Lagardere after Gleneagles was disqualified which is top class form with the O'Brien colt clear favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He's a big colt who still runs a little green so to get so close to the more experienced Gleneagles was very impressive.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Prince Gibraltar[/TD] [TD]Group 1 winner who was favourite for the French Derby but met trouble in running finishing a good 3rd behind The Grey Gatsby. He then was beaten a short neck in another Group 1, the Grand Prix de Paris before going off a massive 28/1 for the Arc. He ran well that day finishing 7th less than 5L off Treve in a race that's working out well. He stays well and looks to be better with cut in the ground. Possibly a horse we haven't seen the best of.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Solow[/TD] [TD]Freddy Head said that he is one of the best he's ever trained and that puts him in illustrious company. He had a slow start to his career but is now progressing nicely as a 5 yo and has won 5 on the bounce. His win in Meydan over The Grey Gatsby was impressive and he looks set to contest the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Territories[/TD] [TD]He's now been beaten twice by Full Mast over 7f and looks to be short of a little speed as he's been closest at the finish on both occasions. He looks like one who will definitely benefit the step up to a mile and possibly a mile and a quarter. Could be interesting for the French Derby.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Treve[/TD] [TD]Not much to stay about this one. I can't believe she managed to win the Arc like that last year on ground too quick for her after a season full of problems and with the race the aim again this year you would think she has a great chance. If it rains she may be unstoppable for Longchamp's show piece event and it's already set up to be a cracker.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow 12:50 Maisons-Laiffitte First one out is Ervedya. She just lost out to the high class pair of The Wow Signal and Hootenanny in the Prix Morny over 6f and then ran a great race behind Found in the Marcel Boussac who is clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She travelled best that day but couldn't find enough to hold the O'Brien filly perhaps because she ran keen from a wide draw and gave Soumillon no option but to make most of the running. It was a highly encouraging performance and she has the beating of most of these through a few form lines. The wildcard is the unbeaten Criquette Head newcomer Fontanelice who comes from Italy. Vibes are encouraging but it's a tough ask to beat the J-C Rouget trained Ervedya in a race he targets with his best fillies winning 3 out of the last 6 renewals. She shouldn't have problems on heavy ground on previous form and the 6/4 available on Paddy Power looks a fair price. However I'm up early in the morning so I'll wait and see if any bookies are willing to lay 13/8 or 7/4.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow

12:50 Maisons-Laiffitte First one out is Ervedya. She just lost out to the high class pair of The Wow Signal and Hootenanny in the Prix Morny over 6f and then ran a great race behind Found in the Marcel Boussac who is clear favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She travelled best that day but couldn't find enough to hold the O'Brien filly perhaps because she ran keen from a wide draw and gave Soumillon no option but to make most of the running. It was a highly encouraging performance and she has the beating of most of these through a few form lines. The wildcard is the unbeaten Criquette Head newcomer Fontanelice who comes from Italy. Vibes are encouraging but it's a tough ask to beat the J-C Rouget trained Ervedya in a race he targets with his best fillies winning 3 out of the last 6 renewals. She shouldn't have problems on heavy ground on previous form and the 6/4 available on Paddy Power looks a fair price. However I'm up early in the morning so I'll wait and see if any bookies are willing to lay 13/8 or 7/4.

Skybet going 13/8 so I'll take that. 1pt per bet. Ervedya - 1pt Win @ 13/8 Skybet

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow

Ervedya quickened clear and won easily for Christophe Soumillon and Jean Claude Rouget today. Ervedya is now joint third favourite and 14/1 for the Guineas but is likely to go for the French version in May. Bets: 1 Wins: 1 Total Staked: 1 Total Returned: 2.63 Profit/Loss: 1.63

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow First post now updated with a few thoughts on all my horses to follow.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow No bet for me but Jolievitesse is out in the 4:35 at Kempton. Looks like this race will be run at a crawl and will be a test of speed at the finish which makes the favourite vulnerable but it's hard to say who will benefit. Jolievitesse showed a lot of speed when quickening clear at Carlisle but didn't really pick up next time in a Group 3 and the trainer expects him to improve when stepped up in trip.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow

No bet for me but Jolievitesse is out in the 4:35 at Kempton. Looks like this race will be run at a crawl and will be a test of speed at the finish which makes the favourite vulnerable but it's hard to say who will benefit. Jolievitesse showed a lot of speed when quickening clear at Carlisle but didn't really pick up next time in a Group 3 and the trainer expects him to improve when stepped up in trip.

Easy win for Peacock who had a lot in hand on ratings. Jolievitesse will be more interesting when upped in trip and returned to more familiar tactics.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow 2:55 Longchamp Al Kazeem is set to make his return later today and the field have a bit to find against this genuine Group 1 animal. Al Kazeem proved he retained his ability when being beaten a neck in the Champions Stakes at Ascot and has been kept on the go over the winter so hopefully he's fit enough to land the spoils here. Norse King was beaten by Smoking Sun in this as favourite last year and neither seemed to have progressed further while Fractional also needs to step up again but has had the advantage of a run. The Royer-Dupre trained Fate could be the biggest threat to Al Kazeem as she looks the least exposed of the French runners and won a Group 3 in these conditions which has worked out well on her last start. She is a half sister to Pride (3 time Group 1 winner and placed in the Arc as a 6 yo) who was a late bloomer at the same age Fate looks a good each way play. Al Kazeem - 1pt Win @ 11/4 SkyBet

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow

Nice win for Al Kazeem. I'm sure Roger Charlton will be delighted to see him win first time out. Fate also travelled really well staying on to take third and looks like she'll be an interesting mare over 1m 4f. Nice to have the winner and see my Nap of the day place in the same race. Bets: 2 Wins: 2 Total Staked: 2 Total Returned: 6.38 Profit/Loss: 4.38

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Zawraq, Endless Drama and Qualify out tomorrow at Leopardstown while Territories races at Longchamp in some good races. Zawraq and Endless Drama are particularly interesting as classic contenders. 2:40 Leopardstown (1m, 2000 Guineas Trial) This is a cracking listed race and it looks a good pointer for some of the big 3 yo races over the season. Zawraq is one of my horses to follow and has been described as Weld's best 3 yo. He proved himself on this sort of ground when beating the highly rated Sir Isaac Newton but I'm not convinced the O'Brien colt was near his best and he looks too short at 7/4 in such a competitive race. Jamaica looks a high class horse but he'll be better when stepped up to 1m 4f and will come on for the run. The rain tonight which will keep the ground soft won't be in his favour as well so he's one for another day. Parish Boy won a Listed race here last Autumn over 9f which has worked out well but is another who will benefit from a longer trip. He has the form to win at this level but this is a really strong contest and he may find a few of these too classy for him. Of the outsiders Portage is the most interesting with James Doyle over from England to take the ride. He looks the type to improve with age as he fills his frame and Halford rates him very highly. At 20/1 he may be the one for each way backers but he has to prove himself in this soft ground. Mohaayed also won a maiden well and looks up to this level but like Parish Boy may find a few of these too good for him. The other outsiders have a lot to find. This leaves the Lope de Vega colt Endless Drama who was an eye catching winner of a 6f maiden at Naas. He beat a decent O'Brien runner by more than 5L without trouble before being purchased by owners from the UAE and Qatar Racing. Lope de Vega has already sired the winners of a few big prizes for 3 year olds this season including the Prix Djebel won by an 11/1 shot so his progeny seem to be training on well. They also love the soft ground which Endless Drama will get tomorrow. Andrea Atzeni is over to ride which is another big positive and I really think this one should be close if not favourite for this on this sort of ground. Endless Drama - 1pt Win @ 9/2 Bet365

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow 3:15 Leopardstown (1m, 1000 Guineas Trial) To be honest Qualify looks the class act in this contest and it's no where as interesting as the Listed colts race earlier on the card. Qualify was initially disappointing but was always held in high regard and ran well in the Group 1 Moyglare which was one of the best races for juvenile fillies last year. A change to hold up tactics saw a change in fortunes as she won a Group 3 at the Curragh easily and began to show real glimpses of her ability. She then went to the Breeders Cup to run in another Group 1 but had a terrible draw and would have been a lot closer if she wasn't hampered turning for home. She showed signs of being a very good filly last year and the yard are hopeful she can develop into a Group 1 racehorse this time round. Calypso Beat looks interesting for Kevin Ryan on a couple of placed efforts in Group company and should go well in this ground and would be my each way choice. However, despite it being her reappearance on ground which is hardly ideal I'm willing to take a chance on Qualify at a nice 3/1 for a horse of this potential. She's from a family which tend to improve with age and is the class act of the race with Ryan Moore on board. Her impressive maiden win on the slow Dundalk all weather eases the concerns about the ground as well. Qualify - 1pt Win @ 3/1 Skybet (10/3 Coral)

[santos_]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Nice start mate interesting idea for a thread too and good write ups, good luck with them today. :)

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow A load of rain this morning in Dublin so no surprise to see Qualify not running. Now in France... 1:30 Longchamp Territories is a proven Group 1 performer and was last seen finishing 2nd in the Jean Luc Lagadere behind Full Mast with Gleneagles demoted to third. The step up to a mile will be in his favour as will the soft ground as he just didn't seem to have the pace to win over 7f at the highest level but always stays well. He'll like the cut in the ground as an Invincible Spirit colt and caught the eye when winning a maiden on this ground. There's a few in the field with a fitness advantage but the best of them has only won at Listed level so the field have a lot to find (8lbs behind on RPR) even though Karar and The Comissioner are potentially smart performers. Territories - 1pt Win @ 6/4 Skybet

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow

Nice start mate interesting idea for a thread too and good write ups' date=' good luck with them today. :)[/quote'] Cheers mate. :ok

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Territories pulled clear impressively in the closing stages to win the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau and the French Guineas will be next for him. Unfortunately Endless Drama couldn't keep the streak going and was beaten by Zawraq for on fire trainer Dermot Weld. It was a really impressive performance by Zawraq as this race was full of quality. I read on Ger Lyons' blog that Endless Drama weighs nearly 600kg and he certainly looked an imposing figure on the racecourse so maybe with all that weight he's one who really needed the run. He was restless in the stalls but it just looked as if he bumped into a very promising 3 year old. Weld seems to think Zawraq is a Derby horse and since Sheikh Hamdan has Faydhan and Estidhkaar for the Guineas already he might just come back to Leopardstown for the Derby Trial. Shame I was on the wrong one as Zawraq is also on the list but with 3 from 4 I can't complain. Sir Isaac Newton the horse Zawraq narrowly beat in a maiden is even more interesting now. I mentioned it in my first post but Aidan thinks he's a quick Galileo who won't definitely stay 1m 4f and wants fast ground (Australia?). He also said he wasn't really ready to run at Leopardstown but wanted to get a run into him at 2 so getting that close to Zawraq on good to soft certainly was impressive. He looks very interesting at 40/1 for the Guineas if that's his target. Bets: 4 Wins: 3 Total Staked: 4 Total Returned: 8.88 Profit/Loss: 4.88

[robertob]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Excellent thread and good start to the season! :ok Interesting to see that you have a couple of horses on your list which I have on my HTF list as well... The Guineas trial was very good. Have Zawraq and Endless Drama on my list too. The winner will improve but probably we'll see the very best of him over 10f. Very exciting prospect he is! Really liked the run of Endless Drama. The gate speed he showed, and the way he travelled, he gives me the impression that he may be better over shorter. He looked a real speed ball on his debut, though in fairness, he kept going here on Sunday in horrible conditions. Good luck for the season and keep up the great work!

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow

Excellent thread and good start to the season! :ok Interesting to see that you have a couple of horses on your list which I have on my HTF list as well... The Guineas trial was very good. Have Zawraq and Endless Drama on my list too. The winner will improve but probably we'll see the very best of him over 10f. Very exciting prospect he is! Really liked the run of Endless Drama. The gate speed he showed, and the way he travelled, he gives me the impression that he may be better over shorter. He looked a real speed ball on his debut, though in fairness, he kept going here on Sunday in horrible conditions. Good luck for the season and keep up the great work!

Nice list, a few i haven't heard of as well so I'll follow with interest. That's true about Endless Drama who looks very quick. He made some nice progress coming around the bend and I thought he might get away from them but Zawraq showed some real class to peg him back. I read that the Guineas was the target and he certainly looks to have the stamina for a mile so I'm sure Lyons is delighted with the options he has for him. The worry I have is the ground. Although we haven't seen much of Lope de Vega's progeny they certainly look better with some cut in the ground and with his size how do you think he will cope with the quick summer ground? It would be a shame if we have to wait for rain to see his true potential. Golden Horn is entered in the Craven meeting at Newmarket so hopefully we get to see him on the track as he looked to have some real potential. Best of luck yourself!

[robertob]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow We'll need to find out if Endless Drama acts on a better surface as well... if not, then he may have options in France where I feel they have always soft ground, and Ireland has enough soft ground to offer as well usually. Though if he fails to show enough stamina for a mile, he'll need to travel as there aren't enough good sprint races in the Irish racing calendar unfortunately. Well, we'll see and find out soon!

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Hopefully I'll have time for a write up when I'm home but I backed Golden Horn just there as he's being well supported. Golden Horn - 1pt Win @ 9/4 Betfair

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Cougar Mountain is also out today in a listed contest at Leopardstown but it's really just a test to see if he stays a mile. He's a terrible price for an AOB runner first time out especially as he wants quick ground. He's one to watch. Fascinating Rock went off 12/1 for the Derby but he didn't run well and his Leopardstown prep win has worked out horribly. Chopin ran a good race in the Lockinge last year and will go in this ground on his first start for Lyons. Fascinating Rock should do better in these conditions but giving 5lbs to Chopin who wasn't disgraced in Group 1 company looks a big ask. Chopin would be my pick in that race.

[Toast]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Good luck with this Arsenal, it will be interesting to see how it progresses throughout the year. 1 sticks out a mile to me from your list, and that is Consort. Excellent for lines already from his maiden, as you've pointed out, but, going off his breeding, his main big race target worries me. He's by a miler who managed to win a poor French derby, who was also sired by a miler in Sharmadal and the dam line is mainly at a mile. Yet, he has a derby and Dante entry. It's not an exact science is breeding, but surely a mile would be his forte. I'd expect to see him in the st James palace at royal ascot. Also, if I may be so bold as to say. I found last seasons crop of middle distance 3yos to be disappointing, which was an improvement on last seasons 4yos, unless they were fillies. A brief glimpse at the results of last seasons all aged group 1 races over 10f+ would back this up. Hopefully, this years crop will be above average and we don't end up with another hype horse like Australia. If we don't, then providing she stays sound, Treve is on for a 3rd arc. All the best.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Cheers for the input. Still relatively new to the game so any thoughts on the list are really appreciated. One thing I would love to learn more about is breeding and that's an interesting view on Consort's ideal trip based on his pedigree. Sounds like he is a miler on pedigree and he ran the 6th furlong in 10.6s on his debut so he looks to have some serious speed. Hopefully we'll see him on the track soon as he looks an excellent prospect and it would be great to see him take on the Guineas winner at Royal Ascot.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow I'll have a recap on today's runners sometime tomorrow. 4:40 Newmarket Earl of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) Two on the list declared to run here including Lincoln second Mondialiste who I would expect to go onto better things with a trainer like O'Meara who has a great record with horses of similar profiles. French Navy is favourite and is a solid Listed/Group 3 performer but he may not find the firm ground ideal for him. Arod could be a step above these though finishing second in the Dante and 4th in the Derby. He also ran a good race in the Juddmonte but again showed his inexperience wandering around down the home straight. A trip of 1m 2f looks ideal for him so the 1m 1f should pose no problems and he's reported to have aged well as expected. The 5/1 available on Betfair looks decent value for a horse who looks to have the potential to be a step above the rest of these in conditions which should be ideal. Arod - 1pt Win @ 5/1 Betfair

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow 4:05 Newmarket - Craven Stakes (Group 3) Hail the Hero showed some good ability when losing to Vert de Grece on the line in a Leopardstown maiden who went on to finish within a length of Gleneagles in a Group 2 and then win a Group 1 in France. That effort was sandwiched by two poor performances and he changed hands privately joining the O'Meara team before winning a maiden at Doncaster. He showed improvement that day with a change to hold up tactics and O'Meara was pleasantly surprised by the performance. I expect him to improve under O'Meara after a good debut run and although he has a lot to find with a few of these I think his price is too big as he has shown bits of real ability and has the fitness advantage over most of these. Hail The Hero - 1pt Win @ 44.0 Betfair Exchange

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Golden Horn kept his unbeaten record winning the Listed Feilden Stakes staying on well up towards the line. He again looked quite inexperienced but I liked the way he came around the field to lead and stayed on when Peacock applied pressure. He's definitely one who will be better over further but surprisingly he doesn't have a Derby entry. The Dante is now the target and if he shows improvement he could be supplemented for the Epsom Classic like stablemate Romsdal who went on to finish 3rd last year. Cougar Mountain was in trouble a long way from home at Leopardstown and definitely looked like one who needed the run. He wouldn't have liked that ground at all although he was staying on before before being caught for room in the final couple of furlongs. It was a credible effort and it has opened more options for him as a mile should be fine for him on quick ground. Hail The Hero was found out stepped up in class. He looked to be travelling pretty well but was unable to quicken in this company. He could be better over further as a Galileo colt out of a Group 1 and 2 winner over 10f who's sire has produced some top 12f performers. French Navy won the Earl of Sefton Stakes impressively with Arod 2nd and Mondialiste 3rd. Arod was well backed but still didn't settle and won't be winning any Group races until he learns to do so. I was a little disappointed to see French Navy win so easily as I thought Arod must have progressed nicely over the winter with all the money around but he still ran very babyish. Mondialiste proved himself as a worthy Group 3 animal and should stay 10f which opens more options up for connections. Bets: 7 Wins: 4 Total Staked: 7 Total Returned: 12.13 Profit/Loss: +5.13

[santos_]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Well done with Golden Horn looks a nice one going forward. I thought Arod ran okay but as you said just didn't settle and can;t afford to do that against proven Group horses like French Navy.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Flaming Spear runs in the Greenham tomorrow but I think he would have to be top class to beat these on just his second start. The form of his maiden doesn't look the strongest so he's priced up on reputation. In a strong race like this with a few of the top 2 year olds I can't see the appeal in backing a horse based on hype at just 8/1. He's one to watch for me.

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Flaming Spear didn't look like getting into contention a long way from home in the Greenham and the rattling quick ground could have been an issue or he's just not up to this class. The other Lope de Vega colt Belardo was also disappointing which again suggests most of them need a bit of cut in the ground. 3:50 Curragh - Gladness Stakes (Group 3) Due Diligence was a very good sprinter last year finishing 2nd in a Group 1 behind Slade Power and O'Brien said he'll be trained for all the big sprint races this season in ATR's stable tour. Ryan Moore seems to think he could get the 7f and on breeding he should, however he's disappointed when stepped up from sprint trips before so you're taking the chance on him staying. This race was opened up for 3 year olds last year and stablemate Smuggler's Cove who is on my list to follow has also been declared. He was very impressive in a Listed race at Dundalk giving weight before running in the Dewhurst quite well fancied at 7/2. He completed the last 3f at Dundalk in 33.5s (a slowish surface) which caught the eye of many showing he had some class about him. He found nothing in the Dewhurst despite traveling well so perhaps he was still feeling that Listed race just 7 days earlier. It was a bit of an afterthought so I don't think he was at his best and receiving a massive 13lbs from the field I think he will go well. Yielding ground should be ideal as he probably doesn't want it too quick as he tends to lift his knee a bit. He will improve when upped to a mile but he showed a lot of speed as a 2 year old so 7f looks fine as well. Smugglers Cove - 1pt Win @ 13/2 Skybet

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Massive drift on Smugglers Cove and Gary O'Brien reported he was carrying a lot of condition badly needing the run so I thought he ran a pretty decent race. Should be a lot better next time out. 6:15 Cork Forgot Father Frost was out today at Cork so missed out on the 9/4 that was available. Ground is perfect for him and we found out on their stable tour that they think he's their best Rip Van Winkle which includes Group 1 winner Dick Whittington. Word of that must have got around this morning and as a result he's shortened up significantly. Price is getting skinny for a first time out AOB runner but I'll take the chance as he's probably easily the most talented runner in the race. Father Frost - 1pt Win @ 6/4 Betfair

[arsenalfh]

Re: 2015 Flat Horses to Follow Father Frost overcame a bad draw to win by a neck on the line. It took a while for him to quicken but he picked up nicely to win close to home. He had a hood on today so perhaps he's still quite immature and reports say he was carrying a good bit of condition like many other O'Brien horses at this time of year. The way he picked up on the line also suggests he had a bit left in the tank so it looked quite a promising debut run with plenty of improvement to come. The first 4 in the betting finished in the top 4 and the 2nd was only beaten 2L by Ol Man River so hopefully there's some substance to the form and maybe he could be an Irish Guineas contender. The Dermot Weld runner was withdrawn explaining why prices were slashed this morning but he drifted to 7/4 before the off so we get a nice return of 2.75pts. Bets: 9 Wins: 5 Total Staked: 9 Total Returned: 14.88 Profit/Loss: +5.88