Can there really be a system?

[downwithulfric]

Hi guys, NOOB to sports betting here, I hope I have posted this in the wrong section. I've been a professional poker player for around 6 years now and obviously being part of the gambling world I have come across many people who dabble in sports betting, some more seriously than others. I'd like to think my football knowledge is superior to most of the people I have come across and my curiosity has recently led me to opening an account on BET365 and registered on these forums. My question is: Is it REALLY possible to manipulate the system and yield a consistent+ reliable profit from football bets, even with a combination of common sense/nouse/knowledge. This is probably stuff you guys all know already but I looked at the numbers for this weekends fixture between Chelsea vs Burnley. Chelsea 1.18 Draw 6.50 Burnley 15:00 Converted into %'s these give a 84.745% Chelsea will win, 15.38% for the Draw and 6.66% for Burnley to win. Obviously the bookmakers have to get their edge from somewhere, but all these numbers combined = 106.785% meaning the bookmakers are fixing the market to a much higher % than I ever could have imagined........is it even possible for punters to gain an edge anywhere?? I apologise as I assume this is stuff you all know, but with the bookmakers manipulating the prices to given themselves an additional 6.785%.....how is there anyone making consistent winnings in the long run??

[Datapunter]

Re: Can there really be a system?

I'd like to think my football knowledge is superior to most

Let's simply assume this statement to be accurate :-)

how is there anyone making consistent winnings in the long run??

Your knowledge has to be superior by more than 6.8% in this case to even start to make a profit. That in itself is hard to achieve and once there it is extremely fragile. Then you have used the word "consistent", if you rely on your knowledge of the sport then you are primarily using your own brain to make betting decisions. Unfortunately the brain isn't exactly "consistent" over time, decisions made today may differ from those you make in a year even given exactly the same circumstances. This means that even if you consistently make a profit over a given period of time that may change at any moment. The problem is you won't know it has changed until you've lost a bundle. So yes it is possible but don't count on it. My advice would be to create some sort of structure in your life that supports you, i.e. a job. Then make arrangements for 'consistency' in your daily life as much as possible. On top of that try your hand at betting but know it takes a long time, several seasons at least before you get any confirmation that indeed you can beat the 6.8% and even then things may 'turn' on you at any moment without you noticing so modesty is the key. One of the problems you'll get is time-management. In order to be profitable you need multiple accounts and take the best prices you can get. Can you be on-line at the right time to do that. You'll see a few systems posted here showing profit. Try your hand at following one on paper. Take the prices you can get at the time you are on-line to place your bet. Often you will need to take a lower price that the system poster has done. That will eat away any profit. Just see what difference it makes.