Total Goals : Many Statistics

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At the end of 2013 I was working on a system which tried to unleash most probable over/under games based on previous statistics. At the end for 2.5 goals market, the system achieved nearly 66% strike rate which was not sufficient for a good profit in a long run. This time (again at the start of a new year) I made it a bit more complicated (of course time consuming) via various other statistical variables. I will try to explain the system as simple as I can and I would like to check whether it works or not and of course hear your comments e.g. "Not works as a mathematical point of view". Here it is... 1) First of all I concentrate on major leagues in Europe only and some second divisions of top leagues. 2) I avoid super powers in those leagues i.e. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern etc... 3) I avoid well known derbies i.e. Schalke - Dortmund or Betis - Sevilla 4) First of all I take the average goals scored and conceded for home and away teams w.r.t. Home (For Home Team only) - Away ( For Away Team Only) - Total Games (For Both Teams). This gives 8 numbers (4 for Both Teams). An Example: [TABLE=width: 518]

[TR] [TD=colspan: 6, align: center]Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 6, align: center]Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Home Played[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Total Played[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Away Played[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Total Played[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]9[/TD] [TD=align: center]21[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]20[/TD] [TD=align: center]36[/TD] [TD=align: center]19[/TD] [TD=align: center]10[/TD] [TD=align: center]17[/TD] [TD=align: center]17[/TD] [TD=align: center]20[/TD] [TD=align: center]39[/TD] [TD=align: center]26[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Home Team @ Home Scored : 2.33 Home Team @ Home Conceed : 0.7 Home Team Total Scored : 1.8 Home Team Total Conceed : 0.95 Away Team @ Away Scored : 1.7 Away Team @ Away Conceed : 1.7 Away Team Total Scored : 1.95 Away Team Total Conceed : 1.3 Then I came up with two numbers. For this I add the highest goal averages for both teams regardless of Home-Away or Total Home Team : 3.28 (2.33+0.95) and 2.5 (0.7+1.8) Away Team : 3.65 and 3 Then average the maximums and minimums. 3.47 - 2.75. This gives a general view over the possible outlines of the total goals amount. 5) Then I check the previous games of both home and away teams with the similar opponents. I divide corresponding league standings into 3 parts (Top-Middle-Bottom) and get scoring and conceding averages. e.g. [TABLE=width: 254] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Home@Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Away@Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Vs Top Bottom[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Vs Top Bottom[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]4[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Total goals average : 3.38 6) Then look for the last 6 games of both home and away teams playing at home and away respectively. In order to get rid of the noise as much as possible I remove the highest numbers as given below. [TABLE=width: 147] [TR] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Home[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Sc.[/TD] [TD=align: center]Con.[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]Sc.[/TD] [TD=align: center]Con.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]5[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=align: center]0.25[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0.75[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] This calculation gives one final value of 2.75 for total goals. 7) Finally get the averages of previous values: 2.75 (Step 6), 3.38 (Step 5), 3.47 (Max of Step 4) = 3.2 2.75 (Step 6), 3.38 (Step 5), 2.75 (Min of Step 4) = 2.95 If these numbers are both above 3, then eligible for Over market. If below 2, then eligible for Under Market. 8) Then I move on with the Over 2.5 percentages of both teams as follows: (note that Last 5 is the combination of Home@Home, Away@Away) [TABLE=width: 355] [TR] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Total[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Away[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Total[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Last 5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]59[/TD] [TD=align: center]41[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]35[/TD] [TD=align: center]65[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Again calculate the maximums and minimums for both teams. 59 (for home) + (50 for away) = 54.5 50 (for home) + (35 for away) = 42.5 9) Look for the numbers : Percentage of games that home team scores at home + Home team scores when away team is away = 75 Percentage of games that away team conceded when home team is at home + Away team conceded away = 69 Multiply these two to decrease the probability = 51.75 10) Final number is the combined Over 1.5 percentages when Home @ Home and Away @ Away = 75 11) Finally get the averages as follows: 54.5 (Max of Step 8), 50 (Last 5 Over), 75 (Step 10), 51.75 (Step 9) =57.82 42.5 (Min of Step 8), 50 (Last 5 Over), 75 (Step 10), 51.75 (Step 9) = 54.82 Average of the two final numbers give 56.3% Over and 43.7% Under. If any of these are above 60% then the match is eligible for the corresponding market. I know it is a bit long and difficult to explain but once the excel is formulated it s just up to plug in the numbers. Here are the results for the previous weekend. [TABLE=width: 509] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Le Havre[/TD] [TD=align: center]Chateraoux[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.79[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.96[/TD] [TD=align: center]35.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]64.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Leicester[/TD] [TD=align: center]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.81[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.91[/TD] [TD=align: center]37.2[/TD] [TD=align: center]62.7[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Morecambe[/TD] [TD=align: center]Tranmere[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.70[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.77[/TD] [TD=align: center]36.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]63.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Southend[/TD] [TD=align: center]Plymouth[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.49[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=align: center]26.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]73.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Troyes[/TD] [TD=align: center]Brest[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.26[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=align: center]25.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]74.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]St. Mirren[/TD] [TD=align: center]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.80[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.94[/TD] [TD=align: center]37.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]62.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD=align: center]Atromitos[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.60[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.91[/TD] [TD=align: center]32.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]67.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Granada[/TD] [TD=align: center]Sociedad[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=align: center]35.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]64.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 509] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Crystal P[/TD] [TD=align: center]Tottenham[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.03[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]73.8[/TD] [TD=align: center]26.1[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Cardiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.40[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.61[/TD] [TD=align: center]72.0[/TD] [TD=align: center]27.9[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Eastleigh[/TD] [TD=align: center]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.62[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.79[/TD] [TD=align: center]78.1[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.8[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Brechin[/TD] [TD=align: center]Ayr[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.28[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.36[/TD] [TD=align: center]70.7[/TD] [TD=align: center]29.2[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Annan[/TD] [TD=align: center]Elgin[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.06[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.27[/TD] [TD=align: center]72.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]27.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Montrose[/TD] [TD=align: center]East Stirling[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.63[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=align: center]79.0[/TD] [TD=align: center]20.9[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Inter[/TD] [TD=align: center]Genoa[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.20[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: center]73.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]26.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] For over 2.5 market it is 87%. Not bad but of course it needs to reach a reasonable test matches to have a rough conclusive idea. I am sorry for such a long explanation. I understand if people really do not want to read it but I will give it a try and see.

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics Only one game for today [TABLE=width: 598]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]ODDS 3.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 2.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asteras[/TD] [TD]Pas Giannina[/TD] [TD]1.62[/TD] [TD]1.87[/TD] [TD]39.94[/TD] [TD]60.06[/TD] [TD]2.7[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]1.19[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics A poor start...Really poor...I will give detailed statistics after the weekend... For Friday only one game [TABLE=width: 598]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]ODDS 3.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 2.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ajax[/TD] [TD]Groningen[/TD] [TD]3.08[/TD] [TD]3.31[/TD] [TD]71.79[/TD] [TD]28.22[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics It goes really bad...only 2 goals from the dutch league..any way...Here are the games for Saturday [TABLE=width: 593]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]ODDS 3.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 2.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]3.09[/TD] [TD]3.36[/TD] [TD]67.96[/TD] [TD]32.05[/TD] [TD]2.9[/TD] [TD]1.78[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trapani[/TD] [TD]Pescara[/TD] [TD]3.48[/TD] [TD]3.74[/TD] [TD]87.06[/TD] [TD]12.94[/TD] [TD]2.65[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle[/TD] [TD]Breda[/TD] [TD]3.19[/TD] [TD]3.35[/TD] [TD]66.19[/TD] [TD]33.81[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vitesse[/TD] [TD]PSV[/TD] [TD]3.10[/TD] [TD]3.37[/TD] [TD]77.21[/TD] [TD]22.79[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Penafiel[/TD] [TD]Porto[/TD] [TD]3.50[/TD] [TD]3.67[/TD] [TD]73.45[/TD] [TD]26.55[/TD] [TD]2.7[/TD] [TD]1.67[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Raith[/TD] [TD]Dumbarton[/TD] [TD]3.23[/TD] [TD]3.39[/TD] [TD]72.63[/TD] [TD]27.37[/TD] [TD]2.6[/TD] [TD]1.65[/TD] [TD]1.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sheffield[/TD] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]1.59[/TD] [TD]1.76[/TD] [TD]37.60[/TD] [TD]62.40[/TD] [TD]2.9[/TD] [TD]1.65[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics Not a bad Saturday...Seems like Under market fails with this system..I will check it tonight... Here are the games for today [TABLE=width: 613]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]ODDS 3.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 2.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Belenenses[/TD] [TD]Gil Vicente[/TD] [TD]1.69[/TD] [TD]1.82[/TD] [TD]36.25[/TD] [TD]63.75[/TD] [TD]2.7[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]1.19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Moreirense[/TD] [TD]Arouca[/TD] [TD]1.67[/TD] [TD]1.82[/TD] [TD]37.24[/TD] [TD]62.76[/TD] [TD]2.65[/TD] [TD]1.55[/TD] [TD]1.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Willem[/TD] [TD]Go Ahead[/TD] [TD]3.06[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [TD]75.46[/TD] [TD]24.54[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]1.14[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Utrecht[/TD] [TD]Heerenveen[/TD] [TD]3.10[/TD] [TD]3.23[/TD] [TD]69.25[/TD] [TD]30.75[/TD] [TD]2.3[/TD] [TD]1.53[/TD] [TD]1.15[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD]Excelsior[/TD] [TD]3.37[/TD] [TD]3.45[/TD] [TD]76.99[/TD] [TD]23.02[/TD] [TD]2.15[/TD] [TD]2.48[/TD] [TD]1.13[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Atletico[/TD] [TD]Granada[/TD] [TD]3.05[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]60.97[/TD] [TD]39.04[/TD] [TD]2.75[/TD] [TD]1.72[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics Tonight I will post a brief overview of the system for which I found a different way of analysis...It seems like some statistics are way more important than others...These are the games for tonight after some adjustments to the system Nancy - Orleans U 3.5 Bologna - Perugia U 3.5

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics These are the outcomes so far: For Under market [TABLE=width: 613]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Belenenses[/TD] [TD]Gil Vicente[/TD] [TD]1.69[/TD] [TD]1.82[/TD] [TD]36.25[/TD] [TD]63.75[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Moreirense[/TD] [TD]Arouca[/TD] [TD]1.67[/TD] [TD]1.82[/TD] [TD]37.24[/TD] [TD]62.76[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sheffield[/TD] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD]1.59[/TD] [TD]1.76[/TD] [TD]37.60[/TD] [TD]62.40[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asteras[/TD] [TD]Pas Giannina[/TD] [TD]1.62[/TD] [TD]1.87[/TD] [TD]39.94[/TD] [TD]60.06[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] For Over market [TABLE=width: 613] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Atletico[/TD] [TD]Granada[/TD] [TD]3.05[/TD] [TD]3.25[/TD] [TD]60.97[/TD] [TD]39.04[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle[/TD] [TD]Breda[/TD] [TD]3.19[/TD] [TD]3.35[/TD] [TD]66.19[/TD] [TD]33.81[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD]3.09[/TD] [TD]3.36[/TD] [TD]67.96[/TD] [TD]32.05[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Utrecht[/TD] [TD]Heerenveen[/TD] [TD]3.10[/TD] [TD]3.23[/TD] [TD]69.25[/TD] [TD]30.75[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ajax[/TD] [TD]Groningen[/TD] [TD]3.08[/TD] [TD]3.31[/TD] [TD]71.79[/TD] [TD]28.22[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Raith[/TD] [TD]Dumbarton[/TD] [TD]3.23[/TD] [TD]3.39[/TD] [TD]72.63[/TD] [TD]27.37[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Penafiel[/TD] [TD]Porto[/TD] [TD]3.50[/TD] [TD]3.67[/TD] [TD]73.45[/TD] [TD]26.55[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Willem[/TD] [TD]Go Ahead[/TD] [TD]3.06[/TD] [TD]3.17[/TD] [TD]75.46[/TD] [TD]24.54[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD]Excelsior[/TD] [TD]3.37[/TD] [TD]3.45[/TD] [TD]76.99[/TD] [TD]23.02[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vitesse[/TD] [TD]PSV[/TD] [TD]3.10[/TD] [TD]3.37[/TD] [TD]77.21[/TD] [TD]22.79[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [TD]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trapani[/TD] [TD]Pescara[/TD] [TD]3.48[/TD] [TD]3.74[/TD] [TD]87.06[/TD] [TD]12.94[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [TD]OK[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Individually strike rates are: Under 3.5 : 75% Under 2.5 : 50% Under 1.5 : 25% Over 3.5 : 27% Over 2.5 : 64% Over 1.5 : 82% With the given odds, only Over 2.5 market gives ROI of 3%...For such a low return this kind of detailed analysis (time consumption) is useless. Of course it can get better or worse with more matches in the future. But it is not making me optimistic so I wanted to get into numbers again and check whether one or more variables has more influence over the outcomes or not. I saw that especially the part 5 of the main system has a big influence, which is... Then I check the previous games of both home and away teams with the similar opponents. I divide corresponding league standings into 3 parts (Top-Middle-Bottom) and get scoring and conceding averages. e.g. [TABLE=class: cms_table, width: 254] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Home@Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Away@Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Vs Top Bottom[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Vs Top Bottom[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]4[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Total goals average : 3.38 If you apply part 6, then it gets even better. I will go with the matches giving at least a total of 3 goals or below 2 goals (Step 5) and then looking for a total of at least 2.5 or less than 2 (Step 6)... The rest is useful but not required. Only part 5 and part 6...From now on I will only post games for Under 3.5, Over 2,5 and Over 1,5... I hope this tweak will get this into somewhere...

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics Nancy - Orleans U 3.5 Bologna - Perugia U 3.5 These games are given by only Step 5..If you apply step 6 on top then those are not valid. I will keep looking them simultaneously to check them both.

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics [TABLE=width: 312]

[TR] [TD]Step 5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nancy[/TD] [TD]Orleans[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:wall[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]Perugia[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:lol[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here are the games for Friday Step 5 [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Le Havre[/TD] [TD]Niort[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Johnstone[/TD] [TD]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Arles[/TD] [TD]Nancy[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Catania[/TD] [TD]Pro Vercelli[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Twente[/TD] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trabzonspor[/TD] [TD]Sivasspor[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Step 5 + 6 [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Le Havre[/TD] [TD]Niort[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Johnstone[/TD] [TD]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Catania[/TD] [TD]Pro Vercelli[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Twente[/TD] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trabzonspor[/TD] [TD]Sivasspor[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics A so so day... Step 5 [TABLE=width: 312]

[TR] [TD]Le Havre[/TD] [TD]Niort[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Johnstone[/TD] [TD]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 376] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arles[/TD] [TD]Nancy[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Catania[/TD] [TD]Pro Vercelli[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Twente[/TD] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trabzonspor[/TD] [TD]Sivasspor[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Step 5 + 6 [TABLE=width: 312] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Le Havre[/TD] [TD]Niort[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Johnstone[/TD] [TD]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 376] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]1.5[/TD] [TD]2.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Catania[/TD] [TD]Pro Vercelli[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Twente[/TD] [TD]Heracles[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Trabzonspor[/TD] [TD]Sivasspor[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 328] [TR] [TD]Step 5[/TD] [TD]Over 1.5[/TD] [TD]Over 2.5[/TD] [TD]Under 3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Won[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lost[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]75%[/TD] [TD]50%[/TD] [TD]75%[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Step 5 + 6[/TD] [TD]Over 1.5[/TD] [TD]Over 2.5[/TD] [TD]Under 3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Won[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lost[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]100%[/TD] [TD]67%[/TD] [TD]100%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Here are the games for Saturday Step 5 [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD]Levadiakos[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Avellino[/TD] [TD]Citadella[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Entella[/TD] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Mirren[/TD] [TD]Dundee[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sociedad[/TD] [TD]Eibar[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Kortrijk[/TD] [TD]Charleroi[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zulte[/TD] [TD]Westerlo[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Brentford[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cambuur[/TD] [TD]PSV[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dordrecht[/TD] [TD]Excelsior[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ross[/TD] [TD]Celtic[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dundee Utd[/TD] [TD]Motherwell[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zaragoza[/TD] [TD]Huelva[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Step 5 + 6 [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD]Levadiakos[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Avellino[/TD] [TD]Citadella[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Entella[/TD] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sociedad[/TD] [TD]Eibar[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Kortrijk[/TD] [TD]Charleroi[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zulte[/TD] [TD]Westerlo[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Brentford[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dordrecht[/TD] [TD]Excelsior[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dundee Utd[/TD] [TD]Motherwell[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics It started well today but especially Kortrijk game where over was expected surprised me. All most all statistics indicated a game full of goals but not even one scored. This is once again showed how statistics lacks for such an infinite variable game...Any way...Here are the results Step 5 [TABLE=width: 312]

[TR] [TD]Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD]Levadiakos[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Avellino[/TD] [TD]Citadella[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Entella[/TD] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]St. Mirren[/TD] [TD]Dundee[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sociedad[/TD] [TD]Eibar[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 376] [TR] [TD]Kortrijk[/TD] [TD]Charleroi[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zulte[/TD] [TD]Westerlo[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Brentford[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cambuur[/TD] [TD]PSV[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dordrecht[/TD] [TD]Excelsior[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ross[/TD] [TD]Celtic[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dundee Utd[/TD] [TD]Motherwell[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zaragoza[/TD] [TD]Huelva[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Step 5 + 6 [TABLE=width: 312] [TR] [TD]Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD]Levadiakos[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Avellino[/TD] [TD]Citadella[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Entella[/TD] [TD]Bologna[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sociedad[/TD] [TD]Eibar[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 376] [TR] [TD]Kortrijk[/TD] [TD]Charleroi[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zulte[/TD] [TD]Westerlo[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Brentford[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dordrecht[/TD] [TD]Excelsior[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [TD]:@[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dundee Utd[/TD] [TD]Motherwell[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [TD]:D[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] I was expecting a better performance for over market overall but it seems this system is more precise with under 3.5 market. Most possibly after tomorrow I will only continue with one system (Step 5 + 6) Next games will follow soon... [TABLE=width: 328] [TR] [TD]Step 5[/TD] [TD]Over 1.5[/TD] [TD]Over 2.5[/TD] [TD]Under 3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Won[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lost[/TD] [TD]4[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]67[/TD] [TD]50[/TD] [TD]89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Step 5 + 6[/TD] [TD]Over 1.5[/TD] [TD]Over 2.5[/TD] [TD]Under 3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Won[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [TD]5[/TD] [TD]6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lost[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD]75[/TD] [TD]63[/TD] [TD]100[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics Games for today Step 5 [TABLE=width: 248]

[TR] [TD]Verona[/TD] [TD]Atalanta[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fiorentina[/TD] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Go Ahead[/TD] [TD]Den Haag[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Estoril[/TD] [TD]Arouca[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Deportivo[/TD] [TD]Granada[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]At. Bilbao[/TD] [TD]Malaga[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Reims[/TD] [TD]Lens[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Rennes[/TD] [TD]Caen[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Inter[/TD] [TD]Torino[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD]Palermo[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NAC Breda[/TD] [TD]Wilem [/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Boavista[/TD] [TD]Braga[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Espanyol[/TD] [TD]Almeria[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Step 5 + 6 [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Verona[/TD] [TD]Atalanta[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fiorentina[/TD] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Estoril[/TD] [TD]Arouca[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Deportivo[/TD] [TD]Granada[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]At. Bilbao[/TD] [TD]Malaga[/TD] [TD]U[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 248] [TR] [TD]Reims[/TD] [TD]Lens[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Inter[/TD] [TD]Torino[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sampdoria[/TD] [TD]Palermo[/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]NAC Breda[/TD] [TD]Wilem [/TD] [TD]O[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]