Total Goals : Many Statistics

[Altn]

At the end of 2013 I was working on a system which tried to unleash most probable over/under games based on previous statistics. At the end for 2.5 goals market, the system achieved nearly 66% strike rate which was not sufficient for a good profit in a long run. This time (again at the start of a new year) I made it a bit more complicated (of course time consuming) via various other statistical variables. I will try to explain the system as simple as I can and I would like to check whether it works or not and of course hear your comments e.g. "Not works as a mathematical point of view". Here it is... 1) First of all I concentrate on major leagues in Europe only and some second divisions of top leagues. 2) I avoid super powers in those leagues i.e. Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern etc... 3) I avoid well known derbies i.e. Schalke - Dortmund or Betis - Sevilla 4) First of all I take the average goals scored and conceded for home and away teams w.r.t. Home (For Home Team only) - Away ( For Away Team Only) - Total Games (For Both Teams). This gives 8 numbers (4 for Both Teams). An Example: [TABLE=width: 518]

[TR] [TD=colspan: 6, align: center]Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 6, align: center]Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Home Played[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Total Played[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Away Played[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Total Played[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]9[/TD] [TD=align: center]21[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]20[/TD] [TD=align: center]36[/TD] [TD=align: center]19[/TD] [TD=align: center]10[/TD] [TD=align: center]17[/TD] [TD=align: center]17[/TD] [TD=align: center]20[/TD] [TD=align: center]39[/TD] [TD=align: center]26[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Home Team @ Home Scored : 2.33 Home Team @ Home Conceed : 0.7 Home Team Total Scored : 1.8 Home Team Total Conceed : 0.95 Away Team @ Away Scored : 1.7 Away Team @ Away Conceed : 1.7 Away Team Total Scored : 1.95 Away Team Total Conceed : 1.3 Then I came up with two numbers. For this I add the highest goal averages for both teams regardless of Home-Away or Total Home Team : 3.28 (2.33+0.95) and 2.5 (0.7+1.8) Away Team : 3.65 and 3 Then average the maximums and minimums. 3.47 - 2.75. This gives a general view over the possible outlines of the total goals amount. 5) Then I check the previous games of both home and away teams with the similar opponents. I divide corresponding league standings into 3 parts (Top-Middle-Bottom) and get scoring and conceding averages. e.g. [TABLE=width: 254] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Home@Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Away@Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Vs Top Bottom[/TD] [TD=colspan: 3, align: center]Vs Top Bottom[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [TD=align: center]Games[/TD] [TD=align: center]Scored[/TD] [TD=align: center]Conceed[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]11[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]4[/TD] [TD=align: center]6[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Total goals average : 3.38 6) Then look for the last 6 games of both home and away teams playing at home and away respectively. In order to get rid of the noise as much as possible I remove the highest numbers as given below. [TABLE=width: 147] [TR] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Home[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Away[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Sc.[/TD] [TD=align: center]Con.[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]Sc.[/TD] [TD=align: center]Con.[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]5[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]3[/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0[/TD] [TD=align: center]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]2.8[/TD] [TD=align: center]0.25[/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]0.75[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]4.5[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]0.5[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] This calculation gives one final value of 2.75 for total goals. 7) Finally get the averages of previous values: 2.75 (Step 6), 3.38 (Step 5), 3.47 (Max of Step 4) = 3.2 2.75 (Step 6), 3.38 (Step 5), 2.75 (Min of Step 4) = 2.95 If these numbers are both above 3, then eligible for Over market. If below 2, then eligible for Under Market. 8) Then I move on with the Over 2.5 percentages of both teams as follows: (note that Last 5 is the combination of Home@Home, Away@Away) [TABLE=width: 355] [TR] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Home[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Total[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Away[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Total[/TD] [TD=colspan: 2, align: center]Last 5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [TD=align: center]Over[/TD] [TD=align: center]Under[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]59[/TD] [TD=align: center]41[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]35[/TD] [TD=align: center]65[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [TD=align: center]50[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Again calculate the maximums and minimums for both teams. 59 (for home) + (50 for away) = 54.5 50 (for home) + (35 for away) = 42.5 9) Look for the numbers : Percentage of games that home team scores at home + Home team scores when away team is away = 75 Percentage of games that away team conceded when home team is at home + Away team conceded away = 69 Multiply these two to decrease the probability = 51.75 10) Final number is the combined Over 1.5 percentages when Home @ Home and Away @ Away = 75 11) Finally get the averages as follows: 54.5 (Max of Step 8), 50 (Last 5 Over), 75 (Step 10), 51.75 (Step 9) =57.82 42.5 (Min of Step 8), 50 (Last 5 Over), 75 (Step 10), 51.75 (Step 9) = 54.82 Average of the two final numbers give 56.3% Over and 43.7% Under. If any of these are above 60% then the match is eligible for the corresponding market. I know it is a bit long and difficult to explain but once the excel is formulated it s just up to plug in the numbers. Here are the results for the previous weekend. [TABLE=width: 509] [TR] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Le Havre[/TD] [TD=align: center]Chateraoux[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.79[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.96[/TD] [TD=align: center]35.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]64.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Leicester[/TD] [TD=align: center]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.81[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.91[/TD] [TD=align: center]37.2[/TD] [TD=align: center]62.7[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Morecambe[/TD] [TD=align: center]Tranmere[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.70[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.77[/TD] [TD=align: center]36.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]63.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Southend[/TD] [TD=align: center]Plymouth[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.49[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=align: center]26.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]73.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Troyes[/TD] [TD=align: center]Brest[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.26[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=align: center]25.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]74.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]St. Mirren[/TD] [TD=align: center]Aberdeen[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.80[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.94[/TD] [TD=align: center]37.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]62.4[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Panthrakikos[/TD] [TD=align: center]Atromitos[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.60[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.91[/TD] [TD=align: center]32.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]67.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Granada[/TD] [TD=align: center]Sociedad[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.48[/TD] [TD=align: center]1.72[/TD] [TD=align: center]35.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]64.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]U[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=width: 509] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=align: center]1.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]2.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Crystal P[/TD] [TD=align: center]Tottenham[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.03[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.09[/TD] [TD=align: center]73.8[/TD] [TD=align: center]26.1[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Cardiff[/TD] [TD=align: center]Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.40[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.61[/TD] [TD=align: center]72.0[/TD] [TD=align: center]27.9[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Eastleigh[/TD] [TD=align: center]Lincoln[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.62[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.79[/TD] [TD=align: center]78.1[/TD] [TD=align: center]21.8[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Brechin[/TD] [TD=align: center]Ayr[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.28[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.36[/TD] [TD=align: center]70.7[/TD] [TD=align: center]29.2[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Annan[/TD] [TD=align: center]Elgin[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.06[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.27[/TD] [TD=align: center]72.6[/TD] [TD=align: center]27.3[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Montrose[/TD] [TD=align: center]East Stirling[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.63[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.85[/TD] [TD=align: center]79.0[/TD] [TD=align: center]20.9[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [TD=align: center]NOT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: center]Inter[/TD] [TD=align: center]Genoa[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.20[/TD] [TD=align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=align: center]73.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]26.5[/TD] [TD=align: center]O[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [TD=align: center]OK[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] For over 2.5 market it is 87%. Not bad but of course it needs to reach a reasonable test matches to have a rough conclusive idea. I am sorry for such a long explanation. I understand if people really do not want to read it but I will give it a try and see.

[Altn]

Re: Total Goals : Many Statistics Only one game for today [TABLE=width: 598]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]LOW[/TD] [TD]HIGH[/TD] [TD]OVER[/TD] [TD]UNDER[/TD] [TD]ODDS 3.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 2.5[/TD] [TD]ODDS 1.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Asteras[/TD] [TD]Pas Giannina[/TD] [TD]1.62[/TD] [TD]1.87[/TD] [TD]39.94[/TD] [TD]60.06[/TD] [TD]2.7[/TD] [TD]1.57[/TD] [TD]1.19[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]