Flat Racing 11th December

[chris34]

3.50 Kempton A nice class 7 handicap to kick off proceedings here tonight. Quantom Dot remains a maiden after 11 starts, his better efforts have come on this surface, dropped a further 2lb since last run and blinkers tried again. Yard going well but looks very short at 4/1 Warbond is largely reliable on this surface but finds winning hard and not been in great form recently however on a very good mark at his best. Island Express threw in one of his best efforts to date when 2^nd in a maiden last time out over 6f around here that form doesn’t look great and unlikely to back that effort up given overall profile. Lewamy was well punted on return to action last time out at Lingfield, was unable to live up to expectations being comfortably held in mid division, dropped a lb and cheekpieces removed needs to prove himself at present. Berwin put a solid effort in off basement mark on latest start, again doesn’t strike as the obvious sort to back that effort up. Of more interest might be handicap debutant Barwah has certainly not pulled up an trees in 3 maiden runs to date but starts off on a basement mark and with a shrewd yard, been given a short break to freshen up and could go well in this poor affair. 1pt e/w Barwah 12/1 PP 6.20 Kempton Really good class 2 handicap with some useful AW performers in the field. Emell has been running poorly in listed events recently and needs to find something more back in handicaps. Tigers Tale was a solid 2^nd behind a Godolphin hotpot last time out, 1lb rise for that fair and is 3 from 9 around here. Yet to win off a mark this high but could still be progressing on this surface. Ingleby Angel took a step backwards last time out and has found winning hard this year. Energia Flavio could be dangerously handicapped on his Brazilian form but has struggled to show that in this country. Lacan looks first string for the Botti yard and was only beaten 1/2length last time out, up a further 2lb for that effort. Outer Space finished strongly last time out, up a further 1lb for that effort and continues to creep up the weights. The most progressive is Big Baz he is 3 from 4 on the AW, scored very strongly at Lingfield last time out over a mile. 5lb rise looks very fair on that form and he looks the sort to progress further this winter and is well suited to small fields where he can track leaders and quicken up. 2pt win Big Baz 5/2 bet365

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing 11th December 620 kemp big baz 50 outer space 49 tigers tale 49 hard going on the aw at the moment ...some mysterious results about ........big baz sets the standard here ......but around 13/8 is just a little short for me ......with 8 runners the 9/1 on outer space looks a better value bet .......very caable on a good day ......but big baz looks strong under todays conditions ......ill try a crafty forecast at 15.0 and 20.0 and hoe they run their races 2pt rev forecasts