jump racing tues 11th nov

[richard-westwood]

time to venture into jump racing ....bit harder ...more variables unfortunately ...... 210 hunt volnay de thaix 52 prince of pirates 50 songsmith 49 volnay de thaix was an improving type last year and wasn't disgraced in his last race against high class horses ....the 11/4 looks pretty good value considering .....of the others prince of pirates looks a dark horse ...could be well treated on some form if he enjoys the change quotes around 20/1 look very big ......songsmith ran well last time and steps u but could run well volnay de thaix 4 pts win 11/4 bet365 prince of pirates 1pt saver 20/1 bet365

[robertob]

Re: jump racing tues 11th nov 13.10 Huntingdon: Novices' Handicap Chase (Class 4) - The favourite looks rock solid after his recent win when he won comfortably, good round of jumping and didn't have to work too hard. However it was a poor race he was entitled to win. The penalty is basically cancelled out by the 10lb allowance of the claimer on board today, and Tothemoonandback's 2nd behind Standing Ovation last year gives him theoretically the edge in this race. If you want to pick a hole into this favourite, it might be the trip, as he comes down slightly in distance and has never won over shorter than 3m2f - which in fact was his most recent success, the first and only career success, in heavy conditions. That and the fact that he has a huge weight to shoulder today, might make him vulnerable. I take him on with feather weight Over My Head - who, looks in context of this race overpriced. His only win to date is a runaway class 5 Handicap hurdle win over 3m in heavy conditions, a poor race which he was entitled to win back in December last year. He followed up with two more or less decent performances. Fitness wise I've got to trust the trainer, but Over My Head finds ideal conditions with ground and trip today and he is on a very low mark on his chasing debut, given that he is bred to improve over fences. If he goes well fresh today, and the jumping holds up, he could be one who gives the favourite a big fright I feel. Over My Head @ 10/1 Coral - 5pts win 14.20 Sedgefield: Handicap Chase (Class 3) - Plenty of form on offer, means plenty of exposed individuals in general. Hi George appears to be the most talented animal in the field, given the excellent form of his last run. However that came almost a year ago and he could be vulnerable on his comeback run, over a trip that may stretch his stamina on any given day anyway. But after long thinking I came to the conclusion that I can't leave him unbacked, since he is available at 7/2, which looks too big. The fact that he won twice as a fresh horse convinces me that he has every chance to go well today. Trip on really soft ground is something that slightly worries me nonetheless, but with the ground potentially drying out a bit, I also have to trust the trainer in his judgement since he has a good record at this track, so has the jockey on board, and based on the chasing debut last season, Hi George could well be better than the mark of 135 which allocated to him currently. Bless The Wings on his best form would surly be a prime candidate to land this, but he hasn't reached he heights of 2012 for quite a while now and looks not really well handicapped here. That says a solid run to his current mark could well be enough to prevail, which isn't impossible in this field, but there is no margin for error and his price is fair, not nothing else. Darna and Lucky Landing I too I easily ignore here, it is not so easy with the two most interesting runners in this field: Alderbrook Lad and Riskier. The latter one appears to be at his best when fresh, his record is certainly indicating this. So it must be a bonus that he is back after a 188 days long break tomorrow. He is also down to a very handy chasing mark, after a couple of below par efforts. But he won off a 2lb lower mark a Handicap Chase by a wide margin last October, a season he was quite rapidly improving over fences. He didn't beat anything compared to the level he is competing here, but off his current mark he could be well in here as the bottom weight, with conditions, track and trip surly to suit, a yard in good form and a jockey who rides the track really well too. Alderbrook Lad seems to be the rock solid choice in this field in contrast. Good form, good chaser, good hurdler, fair mark. I think he might be a better chaser and no margin for error off his current mark over fences, and that may leave him vulnerable. Ten year old Thiti Pearl is an interesting contender too. He should come on for his recent run, though a high mark leaves him vulnerable and age may simply catch up with him. Riskier @ 7/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win Hi George @ 7/2 VC - 5 pts win