Super 12 Top 4 Finish

[rowdy]

With 3 rounds to go, this is the time of year where I have a real close look at teams to make the top 4, and have been pretty succesful over the years. At this stage the Warratahs and Crusaders are basically through which leaves 2 spots open. The table currently looks like this: (NZ TAB odds) Warratahs 31 ($1.04) Crusaders 30 ($1.00) Highlanders 27 ($1.5) Blues 26 ($1.85) Hurricanes 25 ($2.1) ACT 20 ($3.5) Bulls 20. ($2.10) 4th place team last last year had 33 points. 31 (2003), 34 (2002),and 32 (2001) Hence probably only one team could survive with only one more win (Highlanders) Remaining fixtures for the 5 teams fighting for remainiing 2 spots. Highlanders H-A-A Warratahs, Cruaders, Chiefs Hurricanes H-A-A ACT, Blues,, Crusaders Blues A-H-A Bulls, Hurricanes, Warratahs ACT A-H-A Hurricanes, Chiefs, Reds Bulls H-A-H Blues, Sharks, Stormers Highlanders to me looks like a sure thing. The way theyve been playing I can see them being tough to beat at home this week, and should pick up 4 pts over the Chiefs, maybe a point or more verses Crusaders. Prediction 36 points. Hurricanes will be lucky to win 2. They might pick up a win over ACT but I wouldnt be confident, theyll do it tough in Auckland, and with Crusaders fighting for home ground advantage would be suprised to see them pick up anything there. Prediction 26 points. Blues. Will wait to see their comeback win over Stormers, but from all accounts it sounds like they played very good rugby to win that one. They should pick up an easy 5 at home to the Hurricanes, and Ive got a feeling theyll win this week too. Away to Warratahs will be tough. Prediction 36 points. Think they get Ali Williams back this week too, Carlos off the benchfor the last couple games will be an advantage as well. ACT and Bulls. Well since they are both on 20 points now, if my analysis is correct regarding the Highlanders and Blues, or according to History, both teams would at the least need to win all 3 remaining games, plus a couple 4 try bonuses as well. ACT - Without Gregan, and on current form, it would be a suprise. Although their remainig schedule is the easiest of the lot. Would advise that if anything backing game by game would be a better option that taking the top 4 bet. Prediction 31 points Bulls - Well traditionaly SA V SA games are tight low scoring affairs. Cant see them taking bonus points in their games v Stormers and Sharks. Also Im not confident theyll be able to stop the Blues this week. Pediction 26 points. Definately interested on what u guys have to say. Im sure later in the week other bookmakers will put out their top 4 odds and better money will be available. But for me Highlanders looks like a good thing. Obviously tending towards the Blues too. The big one for them (and the Bulls) is this week though. Will wait to see last weeks games first and look at the injuries before placing any bets.

[rowdy]

Re: Super 12 Top 4 Finish Blues: Tipoki baaned 3 weeks for punching. Atiga has gone home, Specer still unavailable (cheek), while Tuitopo (shoulder), and Lavea (knee) are also both probably out. I think Gibson's still injured too. It leaves a very weakened backline. Tamati Ellison and Rudi Wolf have been flown in. Not sure how theyll attempt to fill in the gaps there. Will not be inclined to back the Blues at the moment though. For this week or top 4. ACT: Bad news for ACT too. After losing Gregan for the season, in the space of 2 days they also lost Larkham and Rathbone (who coaching staff were hoping would both play) for the very important game against Wellington. Fava and Sheprdson both ?? Black listed ACT 2 weeks ago. Even more reason now. Theyve been woeful without Larkam, now without the invaluable experience of Gregan. Youd have to favour the Canes this weekend. The injuries to ACT and Blues to me makes Highlanders chances of top 4 even greater now so 6/10 @ $1.5 on Highlanders top 4 NZ TAB