Paparazzo Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Hi, I would like to develop a strategy based on price moves. Unfortunately the famous "dropping odds" theory itself isn't enough to make profit, since the descrease simply implies that most of the time value has gone. So I started to look deeper into prices moves and something interesting seems to appear but my DB is too short. I collect datas from Droppingodds.com but they don't keep too much history, so do you know a place in which find a record of odds changes? I live in Italy so I don't have acces to BF, maybe somebody has got some files to borrow ;-) Maybe we can find a pattern to identify the direction of the so called "smart money"... Thanks in advance to whom will help/share ideas. All the best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christos83 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Hi there...I have tried something similar on the past..I have data from opening and closing odds and can share with you if you want Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Thank you Cristiano. My email is: [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Sorry Christos the.automatic correction of.my tablet.changed your name into Cristiano... Anyway thanks again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christos83 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Done...grazie a te Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes I've got hour by hour odds from oddschecker for 10 european leagues over the past two seasons, happy to share a league or two to help you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes First of all thank you. I'm now starting with Christos data (thanks Christos!). An hour by hour odds will be excellent to have a deeper insight. I'm quite aware that it's not at all an easy task, nor that there will be any good indicators, but I'd like to try. I found these two articles, based on US sports but deserve attention: http://www.madduxsports.com/library/sports-betting/smart-money-in-sports-betting.html http://www.madduxsports.com/library/sports-betting/smart-money-action-in-sports-betting.html So I accept with strong gratitude also the aid of Matthew, if I'd to choose on two leagues that would be Premier and Serie A (but I'll be more than happy if you send me also Liga and Bundesliga). I'll share my findings, if interesting. Thanks and regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Hi, I'm not allowed to post attachments so I'll have to host it myself. You can find hour by hour odds for all of the EPL and ISA matches in the 2012/13 season here: http://www.soccersystembuilder.co.uk/hr_by_hr_odds.zip (1.5MB) Enjoy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 2, 2014 Author Share Posted October 2, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Matthew just to make sure I'm coorectly interpreting your data, the odds collected are the best ones at the moment in which they are collected, is it true? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes That's correct. If you look at a given oddschecker match the odds I retain are the largest ones for each outcome of the 1X2 market and the name of the bookmaker offering the odds. If more than one bookmaker is offering the same odds then the name of the bookmaker I save are the one that comes first in the table. So if all bookmakers were offering the same price I'd record Bet365 as they are always first in the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes Hi Matthew just a question about your data collection: why are you considering the highest odds rather than average? I think that the max can be a mistake in some cases, or perhaps not really representative of the market trend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes For the purposes that I need the data, max odds is what I want. I am not looking for market trends and movement, I just thought my data would help so shared. Perhaps not ideal for what you need. Write a script and pull the data yourself..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes I really apreciate you to share such information . I didn't know you were using in a different way and just wanted to compare my view about data with a different one (with the sake of learning something new) rather than saying you were wrong. I've seen your tutorial about scratching data, I'll try but I'm not good at programming. I'll call some friend to help me out. Anyway thanks again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes As promised I come back with some findings. Obviously only looking at downtrending odds alone does not lead to profitability, otherwise we all were happy punters. But odds' movements do tell something interesting. Firstly we have to make attention at the first moves. There are few bookies (ie. Bwin,Marathon) who publish odds very early (3weeks or more prior to the event). These are quickly adjusted and this a very important but yet not decisive clue. There are occasions in which after an important move the trend sets at the opposite so the overall move might be not meaningful but the charts are telling the direction thus giving good hints of the possible outcome. But the most important lesson I've learnt is to place the bet a day before the event occurs specially if it's on weekends. That's because on the match day movements are given by recreational bets, which are not really informed so either they confirm the trend (and hence you placed a bet at a better price) or the move at the opposite direction. But if they do so, often they are wrong so it's better not to get confused by those moves. Matthew if you could please send me the Serie A file for last season (13/14) I'll be very grateful and hopefuly confirm and add some more findings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christos83 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes One question that raises nowdays is when is the right time to see the dropping odds ? Just before the game ? 3 hours before ? One day before ? .....etc There are so many sites that provide data on droppings odds, in my opinion forcing bettors-the mass to back teams that odds have dropped. Personally i believe that the night before or the early morning of a game day may be the proper time to see such odds but still a dropping doesnt mean that it will be verified...What do you think ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes But the most important lesson I've learnt is to place the bet a day before the event occurs specially if it's on weekends. That's because on the match day movements are given by recreational bets, which are not really informed so either they confirm the trend (and hence you placed a bet at a better price) or the move at the opposite direction. But if they do so, often they are wrong so it's better not to get confused by those moves. Do the times when you get your bet on ahead of the recreational bets drop compensate for the times when the recreational bets push the odds the other way (which means you could have got better odds by waiting until the day of the game). By betting the day I guess my concern is that you are betting at the non-recreational prices the day before (which we say are better informed) when really you should be betting against the poorly informed recreational prices on the day of the match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paparazzo Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 Re: Price patterns and odds changes well my view is to do as Christos says, maybe wait till the morning to see what's going on in Asia. Yes you might find a swing in trend and have better odds, but also crowd might confirm the trend and thus have a worse price. Swing example of last weekend were: WBA-Newcastle, Swansea-Arsenal, Wolfsburg-Hamburg and Roma-Torino, just to mention some... So yes you can also use this approach but 2hs prematch is a very excited time so you might not find the right odd still available if you use more than one book, and also weekends might be socially complicated... I prefer the night before Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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