NAP OF THE DAY - Wednesday 1st October 2014

[robertob]

17.45 Kempton: First Rebellion @ 5/2 Paddy Power Very infrequent winner and seems to run to more or less similar forms. However his latest run at Wolverhampton over 6f suggests that with a drop in trip and a slightly more sensible ride, he's up to win a race. He jumped out of box eight right to the front, sharing the lead for most parts while setting a very decent pace. He started a huge move from over 3f out and put a good deal of daylight between himself and the main body of the field, approaching the home turn with a four lengths lead. Still in front entering the final furlong, he eventually hit a brick wall with half a furlong to go, and a stayer caught up. He was still able to finish 3rd. That was a huge performance in my mind and I believe he's finding ideal conditions in this race at Kempton tomorrow. He drops another 2lb since his most recent impressive run, has a good draw for his front-running tactics and I can't see too much competition for the lead. Should be straightforward and Kempton's 5f track favours horses up with the speed. It's also a pretty poor class 7 Handicap, with not many having any form at all. Some could be potentially well handicapped on old form, most notably Avonvalley - yet First Rebellion has the best chance of his career to win another race and I duly expect him to score.

[cpo]

Re: Nap of The Day - Wednesday 1st September 4.50 Nottingham - Mon Brav 1pt win @ 16/1 BetVictor