Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread

[Toast]

See The Moon..10/1 Ladbrokes.....is my only ante post bet upto now. The aim of this thread is similar to my Epsom derby thread, where I used a few trends away from the norm

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread The first of the trends is, using the last 26 results. 26/26 had never raced in the arc the previous year. this may look a bit skewed considering that 18 3yos have won the race. But, the theory holds water when considering that Workforce, Hurricane Run, Bago, Montjeu, Hellissio and Carnegie all failed the following season. The omens look poor for Treve and jocking off Dettori smacks of desperation on the trainers part. It cannot be understated how much this race takes to win.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread 24/26 had won over 12 furlongs prior to winning their Arc. Shouldn't really come as a shock, but it does when considering that the breeding nowadays is primarily aimed at the 8-10f races, so stamina is important. As for the 2 who hadn't won over 12, Bago and Sakhee, they had previously been beaten by only 1l on their sole try at 12f. Ergo, winning form over the distance, or only beaten by a length or less, is very important.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread 18/26 had the word quickened or similar in at least 1 of their previous races write ups. Quite similar to the Epsom Derby when assessing the likely winner. At Epsom, only Oath was the only English trained winner not to have quickened in a previous race. Quickened, burst clear or similar is an indication of class, especially at the highest level. As for the Arc, of the 8 winners, Sagamix was only having his 4run ( poor renewal ), whilst Sea The Stars only received a quickened quote in his arc win. Lammtarra was also having his 4th run and like STS was already proven at the highest level.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread 19/26 had previously run in a European derby or oaks. Due to the recent Japanese interest in the arc, it would be folly to ignore them. A close look needed when analysing their top 12f races. Of the 7 that never, Solemia won her arc in desperate ground, Sagamix won a poor renewal, Marienbard didn't even make his course debut till derby week at 3, Carnegie was a late developer who only made his debut at 3 and wasn't forward enough for the classics, whilst, Bago, Rail Link and Saumarez waited till and won the Grand Prix De Paris over 12f. So basically, if the horse wasn't considered good enough to run in a middle distance classic or in Paris on Bastille day, then it may be preferable to look elsewhere.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread 22/26 had won at group 1 level earlier in their career. Carnegie and Sagamix had their 1st attempt at the top level in the arc, Solemia had place form at the top level, but finally encountered her favourite ground in her arc and Urban Sea eas also encountering her favoured soft ground in her year.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread 18/26 had previously won a group 1 by at least 2 lengths. Obviously Carnegie, Solemia, Sagamix and Urban Sea failed this. Of the others Lammtarra only seemed to do enough, as did Hurricane Run, Hellissio only made his debut at 3, so he was possibly still maturing and being nurtured and Subotica was never the flashy type anyway, which proberley explains his lack of quickened in his earlier races. Only the Grosser précis Von Baden Baden trial has taken place upto now, with the final trials taking place this weekend. A more in depth preview of the likely arc runners will be after the trials have finished.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Great start to the thread, Sea The Moon is a none runner due to injury.:cry Prix Niel entries don't look too inspiring except for Spiritjim and surprisingly Adelaide,whom, IMO, needs a trip on fast ground with a long straight. He doesn't hold an arc entry, but his run will be a pointer to the chances of Eagle Rock.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Now to sort out what can or can't be winning, starting by the strongest trend....not raced in a previous arc. Treve... It has to be said that she has been disappointing this season. First in the Ganay, then at Ascot and recently in the Vermeilles. Trainer has been looking for excuses all season, first wasn't fully fit, then the ground and has recently changed jockeys again. Does not get her sex allowance either..place lay. Ruler Of The World... I think this years 3yo middle distance colts are average, I think even less of last years bunch. Recently won his first race since his derby, that had tie experts cooing. But the fact is, he was comfortably beaten by his elders last season and has done nothing pre Foy to say he's improved. Generally, the Foy is a poor guide. Flintshire... Jeez what a shame that this seems to be Fabre's main hope considering some of the high class horses that have passed through his hands. Solitary group 1 came in the Grand Prix De Paris and a poor field. He's group 2 at best IMO.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Must have won over 12f or beaten a length or less over the trip. An indication of how gruelling this race is, Stamina is a must. Just A Way... Yen, Tokyo and exploding power stations is my sum knowledge of Japan. My Japanese acing knowledge is even less, so YouTube and RP comments are my only guide, but, it's fact that he has not won over the trip, so s eliminated. Free Eagle... Can't see why he's been backed at all on betfair. If this wins, I'm giving up the game. Avenir Certain... Unbeaten French Oaks winner who has never tried the trip. Don't know why she never ran in the Vermeilles and the trainer doubts she will get the trip...place lay.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Not won at group 1 level. This only eliminates Free Eagle ( again ) and Dolniya who only passes the first 2 stats anyway.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Had previously run in a European derby or oaks or the Grand Prix De Paris. It would be folly to dismiss the Japanese oaks or derby, due to that countries recent interest in this race. All 3 Japanese entries ran in such races btw. So it's bye bye to Free Eagle once more, Dolniya again, Spiritjim who was proberley flattered to beat Noble Mission and the unbeaten Ectot who was having his first run in the Niel since the French guineas. The bounce factor comes into play and changing the jockey is not a positive...place lay.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Not had the word quickened or similar in any of their previous races' write ups according to the Racing Post. Can't be too dismissive of the Japs as very few of their race write ups appear in the RP. Only Gold Ship has the word quickened or similar in a write up. Of all the races that the Japanese horses have run in, it's proberley less than a quarter that do have a race analysis. So it's au revoir to Kingston Hill despite being the winner of 2 group 1s, the Leger is a strange prep, this looks to be an afterthought and has already been beaten by the older generation. Dolnyia is already disregarded along with the over rated Ruler Of The World. Ivanhowe,reluctantly. On his day, he is high class as showed when being Sea The Moon. All his wins have come off an exaggerated break, which he doesn't have this time. Tagroodha. As with all trends, they are not set in stone. So despite not having a quickened against her name, it would be unwise to remove a 2 time group 1 winner (should have been 3), so for the time being, she stays.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Must have won a group 1 race by at least 2 lengths. In fact the bigger the winning margin, the better. Shame Sea the Moons romp a few months ago cannot now be analysed with any use for this race. So now it's adieu to Avenir Certain, Ectot, Harp Star, Free Eagle, Ruler Of The World, Tapestry, Flintshire, Dolniya and Spiritjim. That may seem a strange stat when considering that neither did Lammtarra, Hellisio nor Hurricane Run, but, ATM, none of those listed previously can be realistically compared to the last 3 named. So out of the 17 horses priced at 100/1 or less on betfair, we are left with 3.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread The only 3 that match all 6 stats are Gold Ship, Prince Of Gibraltar and Australia. Taghrooda can be added despite not having a quickened quote, on the basis that she is already proven in 2 group 1 races, which should have been 3. My worries for Taghrooda and Australia is quite simply, the course. Both have a high cruising speed and look best on a course with a long run in as they are grinders and not quickeners. Longchamp has a false straight and short run in, thus will be liable to a finisher, as Australia was at Leopardstown. Australia is likely to miss the Arc and go to Ascot. The QE2 would be my option, as he would be liable to a finisher in the champion stakes. The other worry for Taghrooda is her defeat lto. 3 possible explanations, jockey out ridden, coming into season and the race coming too soon after the king George. Incidently, despite winning that race, the subsequent form has been let down and it took her almost 1.5 furlongs to reel in Telescope, which would fit in with my not liking Longchamp theory.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Prince Gibraltar....33/1. Ladbrokes. Won his group 1 on heavy ground at 2 by 5l. He later proved just as effective on faster ground in the French Derby finishing 3rd to the Grey Gatsby. Comprehensively finished in front of that rival by 10l when beaten a short neck in the Grand Prix De Paris. Looks to e a horse that needs the classic 5-6 week gap between races to be at his best, where his figures read 1112. Prepped 51 days ago over an inadequate 10f. The forgotten horse of the race. Gold Ship...Pari mutuel. Can only go off racing post reports and YouTube videos, but he's never raced on anything softer than good. Has high class form over 12f and further and his group 1 form reads 151150371. Can't see a reason for his duck egg, but the 2 fifths and seventh came over 2m. Another who runs his best races after the classic prep layoff, reading, 211511151501712, the first 5th was in Japanese derby where he was only beaten 1.5 lengths. Had his prep over 10f and beaten 0.75l by Harp Star giving 11lbs. He runs here under his ideal conditions. Good luck if following.

[trapper74]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Enjoyed reading this Toast. Prince Gibralter only 25/1 at joe corals. Had looked at Gold Ship a few weeks back and interested me. The weather should hold in France past the off so cant see the going degrading. Both worth an each way interest punt for sure. Good luck.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Cheers trapper. Draw has been made, whilst its good for Prince Gibraltar who likes to come late, I'm not sure that Gold Ship has enough early speed to hold his position from a low draw. Its shows how fickle punters are. Except for his debut, Prince Gibraltar has started first or second favourite for every race he's contested, including the French Derby and the Gand Prix De Paris! Now, he's out with the washing. You certainly won't be getting 33s on the Pari- mutuel. His trainer, currently heads the trainers table in France. In all,he's had 560 runners with with 457 either winning or placing! Extraordinary figures. His jockey, whom I know little about is 180 win and placed from 235 runners. Both jockey and trainer running at 75% +. Hills going 4 places for the faint hearted.

[arsenalfh]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Been following this over the last couple of weeks, interesting read Toast. I've gone for Harp Star even though I'm worried the jockey will give her a little too much to do. Prince Gibraltar and Dolniya are two forgotten horses that I like to out run their odds although the latter has shortened overnight.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Personally, I can't see the attraction with Dolniya. Bet her in the Vermeille and got the impression she needed softer ground.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Take a look at the Pari mutuel prices before placing your bet. Dolniya is currently 10/1 over there, whereas, it's double the price over here.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread If betting Found in the Marcel Boussac, he's around 5/2 over here, yet ATM, he's 8/1 on the pmu, though this can obviously change come race time.

[Toast]

Re: Toast's Arc De Triomphe Thread Typical, 1st time in 26 years that the winner had previously run in the race and the 2nd to boot. Great performance though. Prince Gibraltar also ru a fine race beaten only a length off the places, whilst Gold Ship didn't have the early speed to hold his position and was given too much to do. My thoughts on this years middle distance 3yos have dropped even more and look to be up against it already for next years all aged races.